Maxbax

in crypto since 2017

[Maxbax @maxbax88]

I'm in crypto since 2017 and every bear market I was very bullish on crypto market and technology itself.

Every bottom I knew exactly that this is an opportunity to all in.

But his time is different.

Before I start telling negative thesis:

I have no doubt that BTC will start it's bull trend again

But the questions are:

1. Is it worth participating in it?
2. Does the risk makes sense with potential profit?
3. If you want to have exposure in crypto why you need to buy XYZ token instead of $COIN or $CRLC stocks?

Let's dive in

1. If you zoom out and see the global market valuations, you will see that entire crypto market is around $TSMC so less than $APPL & $GOOG and around $TESLA + $VISA combined.

2. IF you exclude $BTC, $ETH, stables and divide by 2 (common crypto multiply in comparison to stocks, sometime 3). You noticed that even top ALTS that we are trading are literally "LOW CAP STOCKS" that no one cares about sitting at 1000+ placement in the world ranking.

3. Potential reward. If you buy $BTC even at $50k and sell at potential next market top around $180k - that's 3.6x in approx. 4 years market cycle based on history. So that's <100% yearly on a very high risk asset without any substantial upcoming narrative.

4. Every previous $BTC bottoms/bear markets were multiple clear bullish theses like - "institutions come and buy" (CME, ETFs, Sailor, Blackrock, Countries were buying bitcoin, Top companies were buying on balance sheet as a "digital gold safe heaven", President Trump was shilling BTC and even launched a meme coin)

Now everyone already there. Everyone who crypto community wanted to buy - already bought from Presidents and top funds to companies and countries.

As of now it's unclear for the next driver and narrative for BTC and the rest of the market except stables.

I'm sure that we will see some new bullish narratives for BTC and crypto but making 3.6x in a high risk asset during next 3-4 years while some really nice companies can do either the same or even better. So BTC will become "nice to have to diversify the portfolio with a tine %" rather than "must have asset".

Unless a magic pump occurs during the next 6 months and we'll see ATH parabolic movement and positive correlation with S&P. But this is hopium. The fact that S&P printed ATH after a dip this year, but BTC - not brings more doubts to the market.

[Maxbax @maxbax88]

@fishscoot @cryptoupdate_io yes, but only a small portion. Traditional markets are much more liquid by default. 1 entire crypto market is less liquid than Nvidia

[Maxbax @maxbax88]

- Stock market bull run,
- Nobody is interested in crypto,
- Crypto liquidity goes into tokenized stocks,
- Then stock market crash (after all IPOs, which is usually a market top)

IF this sequence occurs, easily 40-50K for bitcoin:native

Actually crypto market has time by the end of the year to show strength, but unfortunately there is no global narrative.

Hopium maybe if Huang can shill crypto and BTC

[Maxbax @maxbax88]

$60k in 2026 could be like $6k in 2018

"The level $BTC never breaks..."

[Maxbax @maxbax88]

Imagine $BTC

2026 - ranging till the end of the year
2027 - break down of $60k support to $40k and ranging 40-50k for 1 year
2028 - beginning of the uptrend back to 80k
2029 - new ATH
2030 - cycle the top at around $180-200k

What you gonna do during one more year of total unceratainity?

[Maxbax @maxbax88]

@collie_crypto Marketcap will be too unrealistically high. My target for $NEAR is $8

[Maxbax @maxbax88]

@ErikVoorhees @tylerdurdeth Exactly, the main bullish factor for Venice is that it’s real business with revenue. This is what makes it unique for a web3 space, where almost none has sustainable BM. Venice is an amazing example how proper ICM should be built.

[Maxbax @maxbax88]

Now majority of CT is trading Stocks.

Good thing - if crypto bull market starts they will ape all profits into crypto back

Bad thing - they will probably stay away from illiquid PvP crypto and continue trading infinite liquidity PvE market

Realistic option - crypto is so addictive, so they most likely put some profits into it, but only top, high fdv and the most liquid crypto.

Expensive assets will become more expensive, while cheap becomes even more cheaper. It’s cheap because no one cares, not bc you found next gem.

Also for stock traders it’s more than enough to buy like 6-7 assets to have full crypto exposure $BTC $ETH $SOL $COIN $CIRCLE $HYPE + any blue chip meme like $DOGE or $PEPE or $BONK.

And every stock traders understands that buying any crypto stuff is just 1 basket despite the fact that you bought 7 assets inside of it. There is no diversification. You can diversify only between sectors.

Crypto is just one tiny niche sector that worth half of $NVDA stock (on paper). In reality, taking into account how crypto is illiquid and valuations are far from reality, it can be around 1/4 - 1/6 of Nvidia or Apple.

Imagine how small our market is.

[Maxbax @maxbax88]

Market will be back bullish before you even realise it

[Maxbax @maxbax88]

Now all degens become IPO investors

[Republic @joinrepublic]

Republic × @bitget.

Private markets have historically been a closed room. This opens a new door.

Pre-IPO token exposure to some of the world's most sought-after private companies.

Distributed through Bitget's exchange on @solana.

[Maxbax @maxbax88]

Bier Capital Markets

[Nikita Bier @nikitabier]

Crypto has had a rough year. Maybe we should launch something to fix it.

[Maxbax @maxbax88]

Crazy! Software dev was meta since 2000 (not including dotcom boom) till 2024ish average ATH, now the value of software extremely low. I can vibecode the product in 7 days that a year ago would take 3 months and $50k-60k (non-US devs).

[shirish @shiri_shh]

bro was right.

Atlassian down 75%. HubSpot down 69%. Figma down 86%.

Almost all of them down 30–70% from their 52-week highs.

AI is literally eating software alive and repricing every company in real time.

SaaS is cooked fr 😭

[Maxbax @maxbax88]

Tbh I feel like we all live in one big show.

[Maxbax @maxbax88]

@Surgexyz_ Surge world order

[Maxbax @maxbax88]

Good direction

[Bedrock Foundation @BedrockFndn]

Bedrock Coins by @BedrockFndn is officially out in the world.

@MeteoraAG and @GVRN_AI, designed a legal framework for start-ups that can scale with a fully automated system.

Via Bedrock, anyone can now permissionlessly launch a token, KYC and incorporate a BVI-entity with @BedrockFndn as your shareholder.

We’ve released more information about Bedrock, what to expect for both Founders & Participants. Read about Bedrock: https://t.co/2x1rg306I5

Bedrock works with any tokenomics, launch mechanism, as long as it’s on MeteoraAG & Solana.

We’re launching today with 3 completely different launchpads, with many more to come.

Today, Bedrock is live on @BagsApp, allowing founders to register a business and raise funds from anywhere & anyone, fully permissionless.

Bedrock is also available on @stardotfun, a shark-tank style raising platform, as well as @collateralize, the everything launchpad for RWAs and early stage projects.

& many more launchpads to come. Reach out to @0xSoju to get started on Bedrock.

Today is just the beginning. We will keep doubling down to bring Internet Capital Markets to life, only on @Solana & @MeteoraAG.

[Maxbax @maxbax88]

https://t.co/n4Xajgcx5h

[Maxbax @maxbax88]

Wow

[Balaji @balajis]

China is physical AI.
Robots with nunchucks.