Director Europe, Russia, Eurasia @csis. Host EuroFile/RussianRoulette. Fmr State Department (PM/T/SP). Dad, husband. Largely at @maxbergmann.bsky.social
This is exactly the point we raised in 2024 when discussing long-range fires in Germany.
No one cared then, but here we are.
“France is pressing Germany to define how it would use long-range missiles in the event of a conflict with Russia”
https://t.co/Vip7tieqN6 1/2
Statt des Gejammers „Europa ist nicht am Tisch“ braucht es klare europäische Positionen: Wozu sind die Europäer bereit, wenn Russland einen Waffenstillstand eingeht? Was werden die Europäer tun, wenn Russland weiter angreift?
The EU’s Socialists are not backing away from defence – or from Ukraine.
Support for Kyiv, integrated EU command and European preference. But also diplomacy and jobs.
An exclusive look at @TheProgressives’ new defence blueprint, set to be approved tmr👇
https://t.co/H2BkkPrS77
NEW: Europe’s bet on the US defence industrial base for air defence is fast becoming a major strategic liability - why Germany made a mistake betting so strongly on Patriot air defence systems. With Alexandre Burilkov & Javier Ospital @Bruegel_org https://t.co/0QSy0TSAsU
🇪🇺 Christine Lagarde: Some Americans do not want Europe to succeed. Progress is made in terms of Draghi's reforms, but the massive train has not yet left the station
Here’s my @nytimes essay on „What if Europe rearms at exactly the wrong time?“, based on my new book https://t.co/Z6CUK8vxFO - I argue that it is not possible to populist-proof Europe‘s rearmament, but Europeans can take steps to entangle defense @CFR_org https://t.co/Mfuf6BgsNM
Pure genius. It’s almost as if we needed to create an organization for security and cooperation in Europe…
Except the existing one has failed to prevent Russia from violating every single one of its principles.
Foreign Minister Sikorski: "You cannot leave Eastern Europe and Scandinavia out of the conversation. We are about 120 million people. Finland borders Russia; Norway borders Russia; the Baltics border Russia; and Poland borders Russia and Ukraine."
Kushner is new to this, so he may not be aware that there's actually a long history of security architecture that includes Russia (OSCE & NATO-Russia Council).
The problem isn't lack of architecture, it's that Russia keeps violently attacking the foundations of it.
Some thoughts on the election results and what it means for energy and climate.
1. The American voter does not like the Iran War and what its done for energy prices. Does the electoral loss dissuade Trump from escalating? Or does he do it now while Rs still hold Congress? The biggest energy market uncertainty I can think of at the moment.
2. Rumors of the death of EVs in America have been overstated. Dem Congress will promote as the antidote to high fuel prices.
3. BAAJA less likely than it was on Monday, but still important for affordability and governing datacenter growth. The provisions on data center cost might save the bill.
4. Venezuela? Political uncertainty for energy investors just went up a lot, but light may purify. Investigations and oversight will show what promises have been made. And its hard to imagine us giving up on VZ democracy now.
5. Datacenter rush will experience some more scrutiny, but it seems unlikely that the boom stops for policy reasons. Vibes may be blamed for a market-driven contraction.
Can't overstate it. It's a seismic day for global politics.
Yes that's right, the European Parliament trade committee will present the results of their trip to China last week from 14.30, then Sefcovic will update them on EU trade policy (likely to be China heavy) from 16.00
Over the past month we've seen President Trump cut a deal to purchase diesel from Moscow and read reports that the US is pushing to restore Russian gas sales to Europe via Ukraine.
@maxbergmann joined me to break down what these moves mean for Europe and US energy policy.
Out in January, the paperback edition of Collisions: The Origins of the War in Ukraine and the New Global Instability, with a new preface summarizing changes in the understanding of these origins since 2024, when the book first came out with @OxUniPress.
https://t.co/vW7YY8QVvp
While the results of the midterms are still up in the air, American voters across the country have made one thing clear:
They want SFRC to pass State Department authorization independently rather than constantly ceding authority to SASC and folding it into NDAA
I’ve heard the same from every European I’ve spoken to. The EU plan for decoupling from Russian gas did not come from Washington - it reflects the strategic judgment of European leaders in the face of Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine.