Mayer Adelman

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@Shelby_Arr @CraftsmanBob @chaim89 Well duh, but just because you're benignly labeling something as "group action" does not mean the group action is benign.

You have to make a values judgement here, and I'd argue that you sit squarely on the wrong side of that judgement.

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@Schmidt818 @RavJesseHorn Maybe it's not from this year

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@PromoHawkBets Wouldn't it make more sense to report the conversion% instead of the EV% for free bet plays? (In this case, the conversion percentage would be 76.7%)

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@Tommyblackbets @iSaint_ @matkafee For sure. I'm just saying the comparison isn't as simple as 4th down conversion % vs 64 Yard FG %.

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@Tommyblackbets @iSaint_ @matkafee Well even if they convert the 4th down there's still a FG needed to be made. So you'd have to multiply the success rate of converting on 4th by the chances that they score a FG after that.

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@ShlomoFelber @DBashIdeas As long as it's not a psik reisha shouldn't be a problem if you end up ripping the letters

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@PromoHawkBets @PlusBoosts White cells are where you manually type in values. The light orange cells are the desired information. The blue cells are helper cells that I use for calculations.

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@PromoHawkBets @PlusBoosts Here they are:

https://t.co/3F42VB96xV

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@PromoHawkBets To get a given possibilities no-vig percentage wouldn't it make sense to calculate the implied win % of each of the possibilities and divide the implied win % of the desired leg by the sum of all the %?

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@PromoHawkBets If anything I would think they're positively correlated. It's likely that Draymond getting assists positively correlates with Wiggins points and Klay 3s.

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@PromoHawkBets Then you just get the implied odds of the true win % and compare that to the boost's implied odds. If the former is lower than the latter then you're sure it's a good bet. If it's higher then it still might be a good bet (because of the vig).

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@PromoHawkBets Wouldn't a good way to go about this be to find the lines for the unders for all those stats, convert that to percentages, 1 minus all those percentages, and then multiply? That would get you a viggified win% that <under>estimates the true win%.

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@dtdrvnsprts What are you considering main lines besides for Moneylines and game Run Lines? Are the main totals included? How about 5 inning Run Lines/Run Totals? 1st inning Over/Under 0.5 runs? Team Totals?

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@NycOdds @roiguy123 Technically it probably makes sense to place a low-hold bet against the Yankees (Twins +190 on WynnBet: $25 dollar bet) and swallow the $1.64 loss for the free bet chance. But that's not fun

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@rymayor @theaceofspaeder Relative sample size doesn't matter. Proper sampling is a matter of having enough data points to make a confident assertion/prediction. Just because the sample is "small" in comparison doesn't make it insufficient.

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@DingerStats @SenseiParlay And I assume the bets you placed to get those results all had implied win% of less than 60% (according to the sportsbook)? Just discovered you recently and I'm liking your stuff :)

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@DingerStats @SenseiParlay Underdogs and favorites according to your model or according to the sportsbook that the bet is placed on? Thanks!

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@dtdrvnsprts (I hope to try to do this when I have the time for it)

[Mayer Adelman @mayeradelman]

@dtdrvnsprts Why not just track all positive EV bets you see on the website assuming a certain bet size strategy and filter the results by width, market type, percentage etc. to see what works and what doesn't?