My belief in the future of #blockchaintechnology is so strong that I left my role with Disney, a Fortune 500 company, to begin a career working alongside the brilliant minds @DraperGorenHolm , identifying and promoting the best #DApp#Projects in the world. Here’s to the future!
Good evening.
I’m getting a lot of questions about whether my conviction has been impaired or my thesis has changed about Bitcoin with its recent price weakness. The answer is an emphatic no. Why? Because I like to keep it simple and focus on first principles. While other assets are enjoying the warmth of the hot ball of money, Bitcoin will simply continue to reflect the debasement of all government sponsored currencies over the long run. Nothing more. Nothing less. Hope this helps.
Have a great night.
Scenario A:
Bitcoin stops going down only,
STRC goes back par ($100),
Strategy continues accumulating Bitcoin,
The market realizes that their emotional projections onto Bitcoin due to it's price were unwarranted.
And a long recovery and ultimately new highs begin.
More than half of all $BTC in circulation is now held at an unrealized loss.
10.5M BTC are underwater. Only 9.8M are in profit.
This crossover has coincided with every major bear market bottom in history.
BTC also just touched its 200-week moving average at $61,300, a level reached in every previous bear market cycle, though it broke below it for 9 months in 2022.
If $60k breaks, the next support is $54,000, the average cost basis of every coin in circulation.
History says we're near a bottom. History also says "near" can take a while.
Exactly 15 years ago today when Bitcoin was trading at $15, Hal Finney said:
"Every day that goes by and Bitcoin hasn't collapsed…increases the chance of Bitcoin's eventual success and justifies a higher price."
"This feels a lot to me like early 2019 era crypto winter. This period where you go sideways and then a little period down, people get angry, people rage quit"
Matt Hougan on why the market is in the process of bottoming
"It's not comforting to say this feels familiar, and maybe that's a little too glib. But all of the negative news I can imagine is already well known in the market. MicroStrategy, the Clarity Act, the substitution effect, all well known"
"I do think we're in the process of bottoming. Doesn't mean we pinpoint here and go back higher. It's totally possible we trade into the fifties"
"This is an interesting moment to TWAP into Bitcoin and your high conviction bets. A month from now you might be wishing you had waited, but in a year from now I think you'll be pretty happy"
$BTC
Bitcoin already has it's largest volume day in over a month, with 10 hours left.
The candle is currently green - for now, it is BUYING volume.
We are near historically oversold.
Lower time frames are showing bullish divergence.
Hysteria and fear are peaking.
Long day ahead, still.
Capital markets are funding the AI buildout at historic scale: ~$400B over 6 months. Bitcoin ETFs have seen ~$4B of outflows since May 14, pressuring $BTC. This is a capital rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment. Volatility creates opportunity.
$BTC WEEKLY
Bitcoin has officially revisited the 200 MA after breaking down from the 50 MA. It has risen from $55K when I first posted this to $62K.
It has only traded below it for one stretch in history - June 2022 to March 2023.
Every other cycle, this was the bottom.