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@statsowar Would there be much difference if this was by ‘sets of downs’ instead of per play? So if 1st/2nd down are unsuccessful but you convert on 3rd and long, the 1 good play would negate your 2 bad plays. Or am I just heading toward reinventing EPA?
@KFordRatings I’d love to see how the projections changed from the prior week on there (like the few you’ve retweeted today). Gives a quick idea to how much each team and their opponents were affected by the games I just watched
There are 32 possible P5 CCG scenarios. Using my numbers, the most likely of those only has a 25% chance to actually happen. This is what I think the CFP Top 6 might look like for each!
Chances to reach CFP:
95% MICH
75% FSU
72% OREG
58% UGA
54% TEX
28% UW
17% BAMA
2% OSU
@BracketForecast@WarrenNolan1 Looked at it a bit but not as helpful as I first thought, apologies for that! Could easily get the nitty gritty page itself but would have difficulty getting the team sheets in a good format with how they’re embedded in the html…required for Q1A vs Q1 split, B5, W3.