Michael Wheatley

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@cremieuxrecueil what about getting faint at the sight of blood. thats another unintuitive man one.

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@xvrmdf They claim the AI spend is what drives their incredible ad revenue. Better ad targeting.

I think Zuckerberg just want to be at the forefront of the Next Big Thing, and that's a lie to (try to) quell investor skepticism.

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@JimDMiller @ciphergoth I think about this a lot.

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@Squee451 @NathanpmYoung The montreal artists are unemployed lol.

I'll see if i can dig up anything that proves anything.

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@Squee451 @NathanpmYoung Theres a lot more weird artists per capita in montreal than toronto. Precisely because its cheaper

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@DeepDishEnjoyer I don't want them to raise via equity, I want them to raise via debt, so there's more of that precious, precious GOOG upside for me.

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@avi_eisen @ZLbwYcXI1tbGqGj @ApriiSR @IsaacKing314 I think this easily could be read as a different claim. That its hard to generate & maintain a utility function which says both "try to win the game" and "throw away your queen as soon as possible".

Not that they cant coexist.

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@kelxyz_ Some jobs require a baseline level of intelligence and some jobs call for the most intelligence money can buy.

Anthropic will serve the tokens used by corporate R&D departments and Nebius will serve the chinese open-source tokens used by your robot janitor.

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@bennpeifert I mistyped in the OP: Eifert's bet had been that OAI's public valuation would not stay above 300 BILLION, not 300 million.

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

Benn is a prominent AI skeptic. He was offering bets that OAI would not IPO at a mcap >300m.

He ran an options hedge fund. Didn't take directional positions so you'd think he would be safe from his own bearishness. But if you read between the lines here, AI is what did him in.

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@bennpeifert I welcome any corrections to my reasoning in this thread.

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@Larsinspace1977 @Jadam2122 Well i provided analysis but no data

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@SowingAlphaSeed @jupiters_string oops. bit mistake. sorry about that.

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@peterwildeford How so? People who've been paying attention could see where the trajectories were pointing

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@web3vol yes, probably. But he ultimately had to make a qualitative judgement call, and i think being conscious of the stories involved would have helped him make that judgement call

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@ContrarianCurse why penny pinch on the sticker price if you're going to get people with the MTX?

NBA2K is an analogy for GTA6 here, right?

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@tonitrades_ When I was short $MSTR, I knew to get out before the election. Which wasn't enough to save my ass, but you see what I mean.

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@tonitrades_ I agree results are consistent with either outcome, but even if you're shorting a bubble you should make sure you have a good grasp of how your counterparties think.

Just that would have been enough here.

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@Jadam2122 Did you need the rest of the thread?

You don't agree that AI bullishness by market participants is what drove the mean non-reversion?

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@ddeltadt I believe it. What did i get wrong?

[Michael Wheatley @mbwheats]

@MagicofAzi The directional AI shorts were not part of any of QVR's strategies though, right? It was just a personal side hustle while he did options quant stuff for his day job