I said that if $BTC reached $66,000, I’d give away $20,000 in Bitcoin to 15 people.
Well, we made it.
As promised, I’m giving away $20,000 in $BTC to 15 lucky winners today.
To enter:
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✅ Comment “BTC” 🔔
Entries close in 24 hours. Good luck!
The thing no one noticed:
There’s a pricing lag between betting on Bitcoin and trading Bitcoin perps.
That gap usually disappears once market makers close it.
Until then, you can watch both markets side by side, see the dislocation in real time, and trade it.
This is exactly the kind of edge most traders never even look for.
- Portfolio update -
I was 96% BTC.
Now I'm 88% BTC and 8.7% ETH.
Bought the ETH during ETH/BTC's breakout move. Upon this breakout, my conviction went way up that the local bottom is in for ETH/BTC.
I expect ETH to continue to outpace BTC for a month or two (it's a pretty big bull flag breakout-- see the chart below).
I'm willing to accumulate more ETH (bought with BTC, as I'm focused on the ETH/BTC chart) if ETH/BTC dips lower, but otherwise I will remain with this allocation.
I think we're going to see a pretty big, continued move up by ETH when BTC makes its relief rally run over the coming few months.
That's the time-frame of this play. A couple months at most. Then my ETH holdings get converted back into BTC, or I will sell it for $$ as a "take profit", depending on overall market euphoria levels.
This is the only post you need to read about QE or not.
There is a lot of confusion on the timeline right now.
But it is very simple.
This is not QE.
BUT it is monetary expansion via Treasury purchases.
It does not matter if it is called QE or not, it is expanding the supply of money.
What is more important is what it signals, not what it is.
What it signals is that they have begun to print money again, because they have no choice.
And the money printer once turned on, stays on for a while.
They will try to downplay it, call it something else... but it is money printing.
And with a $2tn fiscal deficit there is nowhere to run than to print money.
They have stated that they will purchase $40bn a month until April and then reassess...
But Trumps new FED appointment arrives in May.
TLDR: it doesn't matter if it starts slowly.... You cant and wont stop this train.
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Can't believe sentiment is back at Extreme Fear.
Extremes in sentiment tend to be wrong.
Just look at this metric's history.
Last time sentiment was this low $BTC was at $75k.
It ended up being a major local bottom.
Don't see why this time would be any different. 🤝
Bitcoin "Death Cross" Just Flashed!
The Death Cross (An ironically BULLISH indicator) has just triggered, EXACTLY timed with BTC tagging the lower boundary of the megaphone pattern it's in.
Several weeks ago we predicted this would happen around mid-November. Well, here we are. Exactly mid November, and bam!
This is a bullish setup from this point forward as the "death cross" often marks bottoms, and look where BTC ended up: Not just any place, but exactly at the lower range of the megaphone pattern channel.
These factors combined indicate a high likelihood of a move up from here. A bounce is likely in the short term.
The bigger question is: a bounce to new ATHs or just a relief rally on the way down in a bear market? Only time will tell. But in the short term I am optimistic for an upward move beginning very soon. Within days.
Moreover, the Fed will end QT on Dec 1st. Another bullish catalyst on the horizon.
Read more about the DEATH CROSS:
https://t.co/pLaozYBhnh
A final Bitcoin top in mid-2026? And Oct 6th as a sub-top?
Hear me out, as I didn't expect to be discussing this with any seriousness.
It is looking increasingly plausible. It would catch *many* people off guard.
Why do I think it looks increasingly plausible? Bitcoin's slow, gradual stair-step cycle thus far with no euphoric top and super low sentiment would be a truly interesting way to end a cycle. It would, thus, logically suggest that if the bull run wasn't violent in the upward direction, the bear market might not be as violent or as long-lived in the downward direction.
That's the concept here-- lowered volatility from prior bull runs, essentially, and how that might play out.
Just to be VERY CLEAR, when I say I think this scenario is "increasingly plausible", I would have given this scenario a 5% chance a few months ago. Now, after we have more data, I give it a 15% chance. I want to be very clear on the low odds I'm talking about. But it's an increase nonetheless, and thus why I'm bringing it up.
I currently give these odds to how Bitcoin's cycle may play out:
A. [55%] final top in late December or Jan 2026.
B. [30%] we're already in a bear market.
C. [15%] final top in mid-to-late 2026.
- Analysis of BTC current price action -
BTC has clearly been cooling off. It's losing momentum. It's having difficulty propelling into the next leg of the bull run. HOWEVER, It *is* still holding the 50 week moving average, so technically everything is okay until it closes below that at least 2 weeks in a row. But it's a tightrope walk currently, and I don't think anyone would deny that.
If BTC DOES propel and blast off into new ATHs by the end of the year, or in January, then disregard this entire post and that likely will be the top.
There is also a chance we are simply entering a bear market. I give that 30% right now. That percent would increase if we don't see meaningful positive price action by December, or if we get 2 closes below the 50 week MA.
I still think the base case is a top in late 2025 or early 2026 [a 55% chance].
Please read this post with a casual mindset. I am exploring ideas here. But I do observe the cycle is progressing in an interesting manner (the slow, gradual stair-step cycle, with no euphoric top, super low sentiment, and difficulty [so far] of making another leg up). Thus I want to evaluate all possible outcomes, and I wanted to start talking about it as soon as it felt relevant to do so.
It's important to keep one's finger on the pulse of things as we progress. Holding a rigid, unchanging perspective is not advisable with markets.
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I feel like everybody wants bitcoin dominance to drop so badly & immediately that it might just wait a little longer, just to piss people off even more.
I think the cycle goes into 2026 this time and that’s what fools a lot of people. That’s my base case.
“But it’s never done that before!”
Remember: bitcoin has already done something this cycle it hasn’t done before. It dropped below the previous all-time high of $20,000 when it visited $15,700 in the most recent bear market.
There’s something different about every bull market.
I’m just saying it’s not as impossible as some people make it sound. Everything about this cycle has dragged out longer than typical cycles. Alt season has taken longer to start than usual cycles as well. So, I think there’s a decent chance the whole cycle drags out into 2026.
And if I’m wrong, I’ll delete this post. 😂 Jk I’ll own it.
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If you’re still here after everything this market has thrown at you, you’re doing better than you think.
Most quit. The ones who stay quietly learn how cycles really work
I think we’re about 1-3 weeks away from Alt Season beginning in earnest, based on the post below. Alt Season is defined as Bitcoin Dominance dropping steeply.
My guess for a bitcoin price top is $140k - $180k in early 2026. This seems reasonable to me.