mcybets

opinions are like assholes, I'd love to see yours

[mcybets @mcybets]

@Coopz___ Not even the most violent play by the SAME player in this SAME playoffs lmao

[mcybets @mcybets]

Might be biased as a wolves fan but I didn’t see many (reasonable) people calling for a suspension over the Naz Reid elbow, ejection was plenty sufficient. Mostly just annoyed with the media narrative that he was “justified” in what was clearly a flagrant 2 because of the physicality he was receiving

[mcybets @mcybets]

#1 Brunson pulling Wemby’s jersey slightly, but clear retaliation and unnecessary contact from Wemby, should be easy flagrant 1. Still got the free throws from Keldon Johnson though should have been a foul on KAT (holding Keldon just out frame in the cropped quoted tweet video).

#2 Refs initially screw the spurs on their legal substitution, and correct it after the ball is inbounded. Weird as hell, mostly neutral affect on the game

#3 Castle matches the level of physically we saw from both teams all game. Brunson is not boxing out, not going for a ball, just standing there looking for offensive foul and he got one after selling the call hard. Correct call.

#4 Josh Hart moves in to rebound his own made shot? Kornet contact clearly incidental as he moves to collect ball and get the inbound in quick, Hart’s objective was to slow that down (at risk of delay of game penalty). Hart kicks hard into Kornet’s knee from the floor, then stands up to shove him with both hands. Clear technical and possible flagrant 1. At least four bench players, including OG, Clarkson, and Alvarado hop off the bench to break up the altercation, which should be automatic suspension for 1 game minimum according to league rules.

#5 Worst missed call of the night, Wemby clearly in Hart’s landing zone, easy flagrant 1 call (which would eject Wemby if the flagrant 1 on Brunson was called as well)

#6 Correct call, but optics are very bad after missed call on Wemby’s (more egregious) reckless close-out on Hart

#7 KAT checks Champagnie while moving into the key, Bryant checks back with equal force. KAT flops. Correct no call

Tallying up the totals after correction:
2 extra free throws for Knicks and 2 extra free throws for Spurs
Wemby, OG, Clarkson, Alvarado and possibly Hart all ejected and suspended for Game 4 (this would have been a hilarious outcome and honestly not sure who benefits more here)

Let me know what you think of this take!

[mcybets @mcybets]

@ringwiss Switched back, and they immediately end it

[mcybets @mcybets]

@jamiedupree Can’t see why they’d vote for Schumer’s motion over one of their own amendments like Tillis’s

[mcybets @mcybets]

@Monaheart1229 Rookie mistake, you need a healthy ring of cronies to make these kinds of insider trades for you smh

[Mona Burns @Monaheart1229]

You really can't make this stuff up
If anyone pitched this, they'd be laughed out of the acquisition editor's office
George Santos is in trouble with DOJ for manipulating Kalshi trades
He really hasn't figured out he can't successfully mimic Trump
Has he?
https://t.co/yjRmjq0RLi

[mcybets @mcybets]

@AndrewDesiderio Is the motion to commit susceptible to a Byrd-rule point of order (requiring 60 votes to waive) if the instruction in the motion could be considered budgetary effects incidental to non-budgetary policy?

[mcybets @mcybets]

@Monaheart1229 Rookie mistake, you need a healthy ring of cronies to make these kinds of insider trades for you smh

[mcybets @mcybets]

@Georgesantos Delete this queen, they’re coming for you

[mcybets @mcybets]

@DustinGouker I’m honored to have witnessed this crime in real time. The ole “is George Santos lying *again*” market

[George Santos @Georgesantos]

Should I wear a muted serious suit to the SOTU or a bedazzled one? 🫣

[mcybets @mcybets]

@catboyautist 🤝

[mcybets @mcybets]

You most certainly do see depth with either of your single eyes. For example, you have a lens on each eye surrounded by ciliary muscles that contract or relax to bring an image into focus on your retina and your brain uses the state of these muscles and the size to infer depth. You’re describing stereopsis (“reconciling two visual streams”), which is like one of a dozen ways your brain creates depth. Parallax, convergence, haze, familiarity, etc.

[mcybets @mcybets]

“Statistic recorded during regulation time and overtime periods shall count towards the underlying, unless <time period> specifies otherwise”. <time period> is “2nd half” which I suppose you could argue falls under “specifies otherwise” as opposed to “full game” for <time period>. This is a pretty serious issue across so many markets, in many cases the language in the contract will literally define the possible values of each variable and then the actual strings they use for the market variables are just completely different.

But OTOH if you think you’re finding an edge that massive on the NBA market makers, we may have to send you to Ideas jail 😅

[mcybets @mcybets]

Curry’s was a no-brainer decision though. 1s to shoot and if you miss you still get another OT. Wemby’s decision was just insane. He misses and they need a rebound, a turnover, or a foul and 2 missed free throws AND THEN STILL need another 3 after. Wemby’s shot was way more fuckin nuts (and this is coming from a sad wolves fan)

[mcybets @mcybets]

@bernardbulletin I’d agree, and still think that aligns with the retail sports gambler psychology

[mcybets @mcybets]

2 could also be looked at as discouraging donors for the opponent. Putting on my tinfoil hat for a second, imagine you’re a big private individual Massie donor who gave a few hundred thousand to his campaign. If you’re spooked by the trump endorsement of Gallrein, would you spend 5-20k to prop up Massie’s odds and discourage would-be Gallrein donors? I don’t believe you’d be violating any of the market’s insider trading rules, and proving price manipulation without any coordination with other actors is basically impossible

[mcybets @mcybets]

Thinking recently about two possible forces causing mispricing in election markets with high media attention:
1. Supporters of a candidate buying their shares in the same way retail sports gamblers bet on their home team
2. Orgs raising funds for the campaign buying to prop up price to make the candidate appear stronger, and in turn help them raise more funds from donors who look at the odds

1 seems likely to take place at some level, would bias the candidate who’s base demographic overlaps with Kalshi users (e.g. Massie’s base is younger), but may not have a significant effect in markets with sufficient volume
2 seems less likely, and unclear who this would bias (whose donors are looking at PMs?), but the effect would certainly be significant, since moving the price on these markets would be trivial for orgs raising tens of millions

[mcybets @mcybets]

@finn_hulse I would literally kill myself trying to use Apple Maps “search along route” feature while driving

[mcybets @mcybets]

@DeepDishEnjoyer This is how I approach my job (neurosurgeon)