Reason why bitcoin had a lousy 2025 bull, decoupled from gold & equities, is in bear now ... is the complete implosion of altcoins IMO. Take ETH for example: -70% from its 2021 top and almost back to its 2017 top πIMO shitcoins are done, lesson learned, expensive but worth it.
I had a chat with @RichardByworth on $STRC a while ago. The market has really not priced this instrument to anywhere near fair value yet. I maintain that on credit metrics alone fair value for STRC is around 5-7% (conservatively)
at 7% yield the implied pref price = 143% vs 100 today
-The div rate is variable so dividend rates will fall, but this clearly gives you an indication of how much buying can continue here! think billions $
-Trading bank prefs and other corp prefs with uncertain assets, complication and MUCH higher leverage they can trade to circa 5-9% depending on rating
-The problem is rating agencys still dont value BTC correctly and punish it for its (current) volatility. When the agencies move or when credit investors price vs fundamentals the move from 11.5% to 7% or even 5% is very real
- remember the GFC when investors and rating agencies did not price bad loans, bad assets properly and the volatility of those assets eventually exposed themselves? Well the opposite is true here. MSTR has leverage similar to a 'A' rated corporate with a pref trading at high yield / almost distressed levels
- 'B' rated bank prefs trade at around 7-12% BUT leverage is 11-14X and we know what happens to banks when the tide goes out
- $MSTR is 0.23% leveraged on a liquid asset trading 24/7 /365 rated (incorrectly at B) with cash interest reserves >70 years
-Something that is 20-40% cheap today can garner some serious buying interest or more to the point ATM can print billions of $ of STRC for BTC
- The asymetry in the asset is one thing; the asymmetry in the credit valuation is another large bonus (and its not small)
not investment advice.
#digitalcredit #btctc #digitalcentralbank
This was the demand for $STRC on @roxom this week. Although we could serve most of them, we are yet to be available in all regions.
Insane how the entire world has been buying or wanting to buy $STRC on the paltform.
All of people spreading FUD about miners unplugging because of quantum risks and AI diversification two weeks ago just got BTFO.
The bitcoin network just had an upwards difficulty adjustment of 14.7% and difficulty is above where it was before the -11% adjustment two weeks ago.
Hashrate likely fell off the network because of harsh Winter conditions across the US not because miners are worried about quantum computers. Some may be diversifying into AI HPC operations, but if they do they are first selling their machines to people who want to plug them in.
Be careful who you listen to out there, most people pushing these narratives are complete idiots, if you're being generous. In reality, they're opportunistic grifters looking to push their wares.
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Nick Saban explains why you're not entitled to anything in life.
"You get up every day, you're entitled to: Nothing."
"Nothing is acceptable, but your best."
You get what you earn in life. That's it.
No one owes you success, opportunity or playing time. Those are things you earn.
Show up, do the work, and earn it every day - not because you're told to, but because that's the standard you hold yourself to.
Your thoughts drive what you want - your actions drive what you get.
The gap between the two? That's where most people fail.
(π₯CTSN)
Hey, $MSTR doesnβt have a dilution problem β it has a dilution PERCEPTION problem.
0.00xxx BTC/share means nothing to human brains.
But this does:
1,700 shares per Bitcoin β 500 shares per Bitcoin.
Same dilution math. Totally different understanding and PERCEPTION.
If a metric canβt be reconstructed, it will always be mispriced. @PunterJeff@tnorth
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