Camping in Borgia

L/S HC PM, Hitting drawdown limits and shaking fist at pod shop derisking since 2007

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@tbo1789 @mithridatistcap @lfg_cap there is a massive difference between an all digital product and an incredibly complex aerospace engine (or MRI or whatever) - what a laughable comparison - the market will take your money soon enough, good luck

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@tbo1789 @mithridatistcap @lfg_cap “if you want to access [your] data you need permission to do it” - all these companies doing this are at risk - not sure “other SaaS companies do it too” is the argument you make think it is - all these pricing power and upsell opp these companies had that drive growth is gone

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@tbo1789 @mithridatistcap @lfg_cap It’s literally your own data - if you need to pay access to it it’s being held hostage - behavior like this will only accelerate efforts to move off it - what happens when ANT/OAI offer their own system of record?

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@jukan05 They have already proven (during Covid as well as with rare earths and other inputs) a willingness to hold hostage key inputs - key question to ask (as Michael Every says) What is GDP for? All these pro-China/China folks somehow hate to see US pulling from same playbook

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@jukan05 This completely misses the point of reshoring - it is about National security not about economic comparative advantage and making sure a geopolitical rival doesn’t hold they keys forever to key inputs (pharma API, semis) - it’s literally- China’s own playbook

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@JaredKubin https://t.co/1NXURfJ9NJ

[Fireside Tapes @firesidetapes]

In 2007, a rival fund called Ken Griffin on a Sunday needing to dump a $30 billion book before Monday's open to meet margin calls. The senior banker on the competing bid went to bed.

Citadel owned all of it by 6AM.

This is him telling the whole story -- the 50-person team assembled in hours, the all-nighter, and the banker on the competing bid who called from Greenwich to say he was going to bed:

"And he said, look, it's getting late, this isn't gonna get done tonight. I'm heading off to bed, I'm telling my guys to go home, and we'll pick this up in the morning."

"And I said, there will be nothing to pick up in the morning. We're going to get this done. he sort of laughed and hung up."

"6AM before the opening of the markets, we bought that entire portfolio."

The quote he lands it on, from President Lincoln:
"Things may come to those who wait, but only those things left by those who hustle."

Bookmark & watch ↓

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@macrocephalopod Most of these takes are horrific - first this is same team(s) that lost 900mn not that long ago - second one of the most telegraphed index adds MRVL was up >50pct during the likely holding period after Jensen called them out - guessing that is a lot of this “excess” return

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@MAGAResource @TrumpDailyPosts -

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@Biohazard3737 I think this is closer to best case/home run than base case - LLY also been crushed (bc going to prob miss 1q) into this and people not full sized so move going to be more violent - prob fades a bit into 1q though now

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@TheLAPurchaser warning letter! didn’t even disclose in filings they had a 483 outstanding (though I think some had FOIAed it)

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@ghaukne @bespokeinvest haha love the subtweet

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@garlandrg I would think another ingredient is kids - people in NYC delay that more than anywhere else - 3 kids for instance will age you like crazy

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@alpha_exposure Greenwich teen chariot

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@CapsidCapital @AccionEAFI I mean stock was up 62% ytd into print, not sure overall sentiment was that negative - Pods were short for sure

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@LyinTed1337 @hfreflection @embenhmade also they aren’t heading towards fewer teams (look at headcount’s across board) - just each team running more capital (some of who in old days would have been 2-3 person standalone pod are now just on much larger team) - they have so much capital to deploy

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@LyinTed1337 @hfreflection @embenhmade Nothing is easy. You just usually scale with more positions (esp on short side) which necessitates more analysts. You will also have tools that tell you factor exposures and can use those to find the right stocks to use to hedge

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@hfreflection @embenhmade Yes, I think it can be a tough cultural switch— my experience is almost all from MM standpoint, so that colors my view and comfort with model

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@hfreflection @embenhmade We have managed this by having a lot of positions - reduces vol— you just need enough analysts to cover those names - model is not for everyone, but let’s not paint it as something it is not

[Camping in Borgia @MedtechLS]

@hfreflection @embenhmade Yes, 3-5pct drawdown seems harsh but you are actually running a hedged book and actually producing uncorrelated alpha which is what LPs want - not a TQQQ or triple IWM like some SM