Over the summer, we built a Tomo iOS app and forced users to use the app instead of iMessage.
We shipped 100s of iterations to hillclimb retention and shipped delightful features like dynamic interfaces, but retention never came close to the iMessage-first cohorts of users.
Imagine having a friend named Justin, but he doesn't use any messaging apps and you can only communicate with him through the Justin App. How often would you talk to Justin? What if it also sometimes takes Justin 1-10 mins to respond since he's working on a task?
Personal agents must also live in async messaging platforms consumers already use (text, slack, teams)
Tomo's most successful users use both. They 1) send most of their messages to Tomo over iMessage and 2) occasionally open deep-links into the mobile app when they want to dive deeper on a topic or peer into the system of record that Tomo keeps for them.
I anticipate most personal agents co's will add text, whatsapp, slack, teams as channels as their early cohorts mature and retention isn't as pretty as they'd like it to be
One of my biggest conclusions from this AI era is that it is easier to take over an entire industry from zero than to convince the incumbents to transform themselves by selling them AI tools.
Don’t sell tools, just build the AI native competitor.
I’ve gone back and forth on this one publicly.
Last year I passed on a YC company doing $500K ARR because 30/56 customers were batchmates. I asked how they’d win the next batch. The answer was “the same way.”
A few told me I was being too harsh...
Batchmates are the best first customers in startups. They’re technical, impatient, and won’t pay for anything that doesn’t work + PG’s point is that they’re the real test, and the best influence on how the product evolves.
Also... they don’t stay small. The good ones grow fast, so the customer paying you a little at 5 people can be paying you a lot at 500. You get to grow with them.
Sure, it’s an easier pitch. But nobody in the batch is obligated to pay you, dollars in the door are dollars in the door, and they fund the next stage.... so, why wouldn’t you start by selling to the people right next to you?
What I care about is what happens after Demo Day:
→ Do those batchmates stay?
→ Does the next batch buy without knowing you?
→ How do you get customers while you’re asleep?
10% of a batch is a *great* start.
how long before they were obvious:
instagram: ~12 months
snapchat: ~16 months
pinterest: ~20 months
minecraft: ~20 months
airbnb: ~18+ months
among us: ~2 years
zoom: ~7 years
chatgpt: ~2.5 years after gpt-3
nothing is obvious on day one.