Aaron Aguiar

[Aaron Levie @levie]

Coding is basically the pinnacle of what you could reasonably automate with AI, and yet we still need human engineers to oversee agents for them to be effective.

The AI models are trained on an incredible amount of sophisticated code. The users are highly technical and can use the latest tools quickly. The work is “verifiable” because you can test an app. The outcomes are often removed from the quality of the code (you can have sloppy code but the app can still work). And the context for the agent is often already digitized and sitting in the codebase.

That’s an incredible amount of benefits that AI coding agents get to work with. Some of those apply to knowledge work, but most don’t in areas where the work needs to be fully reviewed to be useful, or where data isn’t as abundantly digitized. This makes the job for agents in knowledge work more complicated.

So if with all of that, engineers still remain in very high demand, the risks are going to be less than what’s perceived for other areas of knowledge work. Agents will let people do far more than they did before, but the people don’t go away.

[Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi]

At this point, fairly solid evidence of a reacceleration in payrolls. Unclear how long it will last or if it will be revised, but 1) QCEW so far hints at relatively low revisions for 2025; 2) in a low-labor-supply-growth environment, a +172K print is stronger than treading water.

[Claire Atkinson - Subscribe to The Media Mix @claireatki]

I did not know this UFC cage match was viewed as a promotional event for Paramount+.
https://t.co/RRYvjrK2qe

[BuccoCapital Bloke @buccocapital]

It’s really incredible the absolute AI GARBAGE that people are comfortable sending to their coworkers and bosses

There’s a good chance productivity will actually *decrease* as AI adoption increases because everyone is busy wading through AI slop

[Conor Sen @conorsen]

Professional/business services job openings surged — at least while the AI capex boom is going on there isn’t going to be mass labor disruption (kind of by definition):

[Sid Prabhu @sidprabhu]

"A couple means two" as any high yield bond trader knows

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

I wouldn't put much stock on one noisy chart, but...

There may be a divergence brewing between job availability and worker perception of job availability.

Job openings (yellow line) have been rising all year. The QUITS rate is back at post-COVID lows.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

New: Kevin Warsh has tapped two outside associates as advisers—in as temporary contractors for now.

Both are budget policy specialists, and one wrote the Fed chapter of Project 2025, which endorsed a radical restructuring of the central bank. https://t.co/iJnZBQjC8f

[Yuchen Jin @Yuchenj_UW]

Google is fighting every final boss at once:

OpenAI & Anthropic in models, Nvidia in chips, AWS & Microsoft in cloud, Meta in ads, Tesla in self-driving, Apple in phones and OS.

At $4.6T, it feels weirdly undervalued.

[Fundstrat Direct @FundstratDirect]

$MSFT canceled its AI coding licenses over cost. $NVDA found AI was more expensive than headcount for months. The case for hiring humans back may be building faster than anyone expected. Fundstrat weighs in: https://t.co/iA7ONmKVPM

[Larry Thompson, CMT CPA @HostileCharts]

So many opinions.

So little proof I should care about them.

[Derek Thompson @DKThomp]

We're getting another round of THE AI BUBBLE IS POPPING stories, with the news about Uber/Microsoft pulling back on AI subscriptions bc their agent costs went crazy.

Maybe. But, per below, GPU rental prices are still up 2x from where they were four months ago. It doesn't seem like demand is slowing down, at all. When, eg, NYC hotel prices are twice as high as they were last year, you shouldn't believe people telling you that nobody is going to NYC anymore.

Maybe someone smarter than me can correct me on this logic, but if the price for accessing AI compute is skyrocketing, that's because demand is still significantly outrunning supply, which sounds to me like the opposite of the beginning of the end of a bubble.

[Conor Sen @conorsen]

Job switching is low, the hiring rate is low, housing turnover is low, migration is low — it’s a really great time to be settled but a difficult time to make any kind of major job/housing change.

[Peter John Lambert @pj_lambert]

But why WFH? We also propose a stylised model to explain the mechanism: WFH makes supervision, monitoring, and on-the-job learning harder, all of which hit junior-workers more. Firms less willing to invest in junior talent when these frictions rise.

[Peter John Lambert @pj_lambert]

BUT when we control for WFH exposure, this effect all but disappears in our baseline results. This is NOT the case with WFH exposure, which is a robust predictor of the fall in junior-share of hiring with or without AI

[Peter John Lambert @pj_lambert]

This has been shown to be concentrated in routine-cognitive white collar occupations. The challenge we highlight is that GenAI exposure is super strongly correlated with WFH exposure, posing a challenge for empirical analysis.

[StonkTrump @StonkTrump]

Make them think the rally is narrow and make them sell. Now after the first little dip pump every single sector that’s been lagging and lock them out.

[Jason Lang @curi0usJack]

He just authenticated to Microsoft for the 35th time today.

Wait for him to click the "Keep me signed in" checkbox...

Perfect. Now, do nothing.

[Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi]

The US has now had 55 consecutive months of the unemployment rate below 4.6%, more than the GFC recovery (37) & the dot com boom (40), & 2nd only to the 1965-70 expansion (59).
One possibility is that NAIRU has risen, maybe because reservation wages higher or greater mismatch.

[Mark Ungewitter @mark_ungewitter]

Fade trade.