mejiro.eth

[mejiro.eth @mejiroth]

I wish as ardently as anyone this were the case, but

> And that's the catch, nobody does.

this is predicated on the (highly questionable) assumption that global GDP will always be humanity's to carve up between ourselves

and things get sinister very quickly if/when it is false

[Taelin @VictorTaelin]

I think these who fear "AI will take my jobs" ultimately fall to the following logical trap: "the value of my work might go down to zero (true), thus I'll not be able to afford the things that I could afford otherwise (false)".

Obviously, if the value of everyone's work goes to 0, then so does the *cost* of everything. Models are getting better at everything, so, there's no realistic scenario where YOU stop being valuable yet you still need to pay the same to all the goods and services you consume. But that is somehow a hard conclusion to make.

If I'd predict the future, this is how I think things will work out.

First, AI will take nearly all jobs that can be done behind a computer. Period. Stop coping. I'm glad I don't need to measure my words. That IS happening. Fable is almost implementing Bend on its own, in many instances it feels more competent than myself, and I've hardly met a single human I'd attribute that title to. Accept reality.

Second, once software and math becomes trivial and people get used to the fact they can conjure programs and proofs beyond human comprehension - once that becomes the new normal - science will turn its attention head to elsewhere. In particular, SF nerds will be pikachu-shocked to find out that solving math/swe doesn't automatically solve hunger, climate, violence, biology. So, these will become the next big thing in the frontier of science.

Third, and this is where most are worried about - what happens to our jobs? This discussion will become more and more prevalent and some think UBI will be the solution. I don't think so. I think UBI will not be *needed* because the cost of everything will naturally go down to zero.

I think this point is easy to visualize for things behind a screen. That utility app you pay a $20 / mo for? You will stop paying for it, because a local AI will rebuild the thing for $0.1, and someone will publish it for free. A 100% open App Store will probably emerge, and will be massively adopted because quality will be so high, and people don't want to pay for things they can get for free at higher quality.

This is "auto-UBI" for software. We all can afford it now, not because the gov is sending us a $5k check every month, but because the cost of the thing is zero. If you accept that, then, it shouldn't be much harder to accept this will ALSO happen, to a large extent, to things in the real world. The food you eat, the water you drink, the car you ride.

Real world goods cannot go down to literal zero because atoms aren't copiable, but their production will be so aggressively automated, each on their own way, that the practical result will be nearly the same. You'll walk into a store, grab stuff, and go home. You'll make a hand gesture, get into an auto driving car, and go wherever you want to.

And if you think that's not going to happen, that's probably because you have this "but who pays for it?" on your mind. And that's the catch, nobody does. AI robots are producing all the stuff needed to sustain it in such an enormous abundance that there is basically no cost. "What prevents vandalism and abuse?" - Laws don't stop working, they get better too. This is so hard to visualize because we were born to live in a world where you must work to *survive*. This is so axiomatically ingrained in our brains we can't imagine another way. Your children will not live in this world.

This is the future of humanity, and it will happen sooner than you expect. I'm not denying the transition won't be turbulent and I'm not invalidating these who are afraid. Some fields (swe for example) will be gone faster than others, and that IS a real concern. In particular, I think we should put a lot of pressure in ensuring this transition happens as smoothly as possible. But once it lands, humanity will be in a much better position than it is today. Your children will not work to live. They will just... live. And they'll look at work scales as view slavery today. Which is how it should be

[Blond @BlondB00]

you play the piano. you’re good at chess. you’re valedictorian. you can put on a little well-spoken display of words in a well-groomed suit. even your hand movements reek of polish. in short, you’re a good boy. you do what society has deemed worth doing. you outsourced your taste, the poster boy of mimetic desire. God bless your soul. when will you grow up? when will you reduce yourself to zero? when will you realise that salvation is only attainable through annihilation? do you even know what you like? the moment you cease being a junk collector you will know God. start wasting time.

[mejiro.eth @mejiroth]

@VictorTaelin just curious, are you finding the same success when applying AI to theorem proving, particularly software verification?

been trying out Roo Code + various versions of Gemini and results are extremely limited so far, wondering if there's some secret sauce I'm missing here.

[mejiro.eth @mejiroth]

결국 모두의 예상대로 DOGE는 재정적자를 개미 눈물만큼도 해소하지 못하고 끝났고, 사람들은 1. 그 다음 머스크의 진짜 노림수를 궁금해하거나, 2. 최소한 그 과정에서 현실감각을 좀 얻었으리라 생각했는데,

결론이 적자충 개새끼 페도새끼 다 죽자 자폭이라니... 어 음...

[mejiro.eth @mejiroth]

지금 미국의 재정이 제도권 정치를 통한 타협과 긴축 따위로는 해결이 불가능하다는 것은 최소한의 경제사적 상식으로도 알 수 있는 사실.

그래서 알만한 분들도 다 볼드모트 취급하며 완곡어법으로만 다루는 주제이고, 머스크가 자신만만하게 DOGE에 뛰어들 때 다들 무슨 속셈일까? 궁금했던 것.

[mejiro.eth @mejiroth]

다만 이건 어디까지나 작가의 개인역량에 100% 의존하는 차력쇼에 가까운 답안이라 '작법'으로는 별 의미가 없음.

헌터물 너무 식상한데 어떻게 하면 되나요?" 에 '퉁구처럼 쓰면 됩니다' 가 아무 도움이 안 되는 것처럼.

[mejiro.eth @mejiroth]

아무 현실의 은유도 접점도 없는 편의주의적 대립구도, 호소력 없는 사이다가 웹소의 고질병이라면 대신 뭘 쓰란 말인가?

사실 독자 입장에서는 간단한 문제임. 이런 걸 쓰면 된다.

https://t.co/vCNUWWdhox

[Andrew Côté @Andercot]

The future is gonna be so damn cool

[최우형 @woohyong]

"모든 시장에는 부의 파괴로 이어지는 나쁜 결정을 상징하는 개인투자자 그룹이 있다. 89년에는 일본 샐러리맨, 99년에는 성장 펀드 투자자들, 21년에는 밈 주식을 매수하는 로빈후드 투자자들이 그러했으며 오늘날은 한국 개인투자자들이 그 자리를 차지..."

돌고 도는 파괴왕 자리. 현재 한국개미.

[mejiro.eth @mejiroth]

허어...

고인의 명복을 빕니다.

[야끼소바에 밥말아먹는 네오바람 @neoakira14]

부고 대신 전합니다
[부고]
성기택의 자녀 故성상현(크라스갈드)님께서 별세하셨기에 아래와 같이 부고를 전해 드립니다

태릉성심장례식장
5층 매화실
서울특별시 노원구 화랑로 425-8 태릉입구역 2번출구

■유가족 및 장례식장 위치 확인
https://t.co/zd7Ie2FIfG

[michael wave @michael___wave]

I’ve done a total 180 on this guy. he’s not going to solve death, obviously. but he’s our last victorian gentleman scientist using his money doing mad shit to himself that can barely even be described as a proper experiment. shine on, weirdo

[mejiro.eth @mejiroth]

'파국은 오겠지만 돈은 그 충격을 바이 더 딥 해서 버는게 아니다. 돈은 충격에 대한 정부의 대응을 예측해서 버는 것'

한마디루 제 2의 버리가 되려 몸비틀지 말라는 뜻인듸, 버리 본인부터가 제 2의 버리가 되려다 끝없이 추해지시는 말년을 보면 챔으루 새겨 들어야 하겠읍니다.

[mejiro.eth @mejiroth]

쿤 식으로 말하자면 normal economics가 작동하는 동안 주효한 것은 주류경제학과 제도권 금융의 룰을 전후좌우로 활용하는, '숙련된 게임의 플레이어'의 능력.

하지만 그 짬이 안 통하는, 누구도 살아서 체험한 적 없는 전환기가 오면 비로소 역사적 패턴인식과 미래에 대한 상상력이 요구되는 것.

[mejiro.eth @mejiroth]

그런 의미에서 새 뷰가 나올 때마다 무조건 읽어볼 가치가 있는 톱 5에 들어가실 분.

https://t.co/6Hsay3cH5m

[mejiro.eth @mejiroth]

1년이 지난 지금 보면 그 '결과들'은 100k 비트코인, 환율 멸망, 인플레 도외시 금리인하의 형태로 가속중이고 진실의 '시간'을 향한 초침은 지금도 째깍째깍 돌아가고 있음.

크립토에 베팅한 개인적 선택은 100% 옳았지만 마냥 기뻐할 수는 없는 세상사.

[mejiro.eth @mejiroth]

자연에서 모든 지수적 성장이 끝을 맞이하는 것처럼, 이 구조도 더 유지될 수 없는 시간이 찾아왔고, 그 결과들이 수면 위로 떠오르고 있음.

[mejiro.eth @mejiroth]

지금 생각하면~ 이미 핵이 붕괴한 별의 잔영이었음을~

https://t.co/F8ApY0Yxsb

[mejiro.eth @mejiroth]

홍백 하면 늒 등판 논란이 엊그제 같은데 벌써 1년이여? 싶다가도 지금 늒진스 꼴을 보면 아 1년 맞네 싶어짐이야. 슬픔...!

[mejiro.eth @mejiroth]

데뷔도 아직인 늒네의 홍백이 가당키나 하냐던 일늙남다치의 준동을 진압하는 로컬 브랜드 등판... 뉴진스맘도 미국에서 보고 계실 것 ㅇㅅㅜ

[mejiro.eth @mejiroth]

謹賀新年.

[mejiro.eth @mejiroth]

@mert very different daily stat picture from defillama.

or are they measuring completely different things?

[mejiro.eth @mejiroth]

날개를 주세요가 이런 노래였나? 하면서 루프로 계속 듣는 중. 피아노 진짜 재밌게 치는 사람이네.

https://t.co/dSocWBFoCW