mel money

investing through the markets, sharing the mistakes & lessons along the way. usually at the gym when i’m not watching stocks 🏋🏽‍♀️

[mel money @melsmonie]

Nvidia generated $96.2b in revenue last quarter.

data center alone contributed $89b.

that means the segment responsible for AI infrastructure generated roughly 92% of total company revenue.

for investors, that makes the next phase of Nvidia's story pretty interesting.

the company doesn't just need AI spending to stay strong. it needs that spending to keep expanding fast enough to support an increasingly large revenue base.

[mel money @melsmonie]

@WatcherGuru t-mobile, at&t and verizon all got the same 7% haircut, but their customers, debt loads and dividends look nothing alike. i'd rank them by balance sheet first and only then think about which one to buy. the weakest balance sheet usually keeps falling longest

[mel money @melsmonie]

t-mobile, at&t and verizon all dropped about 7% after spacex said starlink is becoming a major us mobile carrier. if you pay one f them every month, i'd expect the promos to get louder. my gess is free lines and bill credits show up before the year ends, so it's a good time to look at your bill and ask what the new customer price is

[mel money @melsmonie]

@ChrisCamillo a cash deal would load starbucks' balance sheet while the turnaround is still being proven. the leverage number in the next earnings report is the first thing i'd check, because that's where the risk shows up

[mel money @melsmonie]

memory is one of the most cyclical corners of semis, and a $3,000 target has to assume the cycle never turns. i'd track monthly dram contract prices, since they move before earnings do. any position i take at these levels stays small

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🇺🇸Wall Street remains BULLISH on semiconductor stocks despite Treasury yields hitting multi-decade highs.

Major banks and funds have raised their price targets, showing massive upside from current levels:

$MU: +189% jump to $3,000 (D.A. Davidson)

$SNDK: +88% jump to $3,000 (Bernstein)

$WDC: +72% jump to $676 (Morgan Stanley)

$MRVL: +57% jump to $425 (BNP Paribas)

$AMD: +55% jump to $960 (BNP Paribas)

$STX: +53% jump to $1,178 (Morgan Stanley)

[mel money @melsmonie]

@HormuzLetter a cash deal would load starbucks' balance sheet while the turnaround is still being proven. the leverage number in the next earnings report is the first thing i'd check, because that's where the risk shows up

[mel money @melsmonie]

@StockSavvyShay a 29% partner cut makes me curious how much of the $70b is revenue share with microsoft and how much is resellers. my guess is more ai labs start reporting revenue after partner payouts once ipo filings get close

[mel money @melsmonie]

@KobeissiLetter homebuilders are where i'd look first. lennar and builders firstsource were already sitting on that 52 week low list. if buyers stay away, incentives and rate buydowns eat into margins before volume comes back. lennar's gross margin next quarter is the number i'd check

[mel money @melsmonie]

@BullTheoryio putting $1,000 into the market at birth gives compounding 18 years to do its work. the bigger question for me is whether parents keep contributing once the initial deposit is gone. that’s where a $1,000 head start can become a meaningful portfolio.

[mel money @melsmonie]

@KobeissiLetter $50b+ in financing for ai chips is a serious signal for how capital-intensive this buildout is becoming. the interesting trade for me is who carries the funding cost while the compute gets deployed and revenue catches up.

[mel money @melsmonie]

@StockSavvyShay if customers are already sacrificing memory to ship systems, the eventual performance catch-up could create another demand wave. that makes micron’s upside increasingly tied to ai infrastructure spending staying elevated.

[mel money @melsmonie]

the s&p 500 is getting harder to treat like a diversified portfolio when a handful of companies drive such a large share of its returns. that works beautifully while mega-cap earnings keep beating expectations. investors should remember how quickly concentration can amplify a downturn when that leadership breaks.

[mel money @melsmonie]

dtcc already ran live trades using tokenized stocks, etfs and treasuries in july, with its full tokenization service planned for october. i think the real investment story is the plumbing: faster settlement can eventually change how collateral, liquidity and capital move through markets.

[mel money @melsmonie]

23 straight months of buying makes this much more than a one-off reserve move. persistent central bank demand can change the floor under gold, especially if more countries keep looking to diversify their reserves.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇨🇳 China buys 740,000 ounces of gold worth $3,100,000,000

This is the 23rd consecutive month of gold accumulation by the Chinese government.

Over the past 23 months, China has added 4.67 million ounces of gold to its reserves, worth approximately $19.5 billion.

China now holds roughly $323.5 billion worth of gold in its reserves.

[mel money @melsmonie]

the social security debate gets a lot harder once you treat contributions like an investment account. the program is structured around payroll taxes funding benefits across generations, so the sustainability question ultimately comes down to how much revenue and how many beneficiaries the system can support.

[mel money @melsmonie]

@BullTheoryio if buyers are willing to absorb $39b at lower yields, the market may be getting more comfortable with duration at these levels.

[mel money @melsmonie]

@LakersReporter preseason games are supposed to be low stakes, but losin kessler and reaves in the same night is still worth noting 😭 especially with both being day-to-day, i’d expect the lakers to be pretty cautious with them this early in the schedule.

[mel money @melsmonie]

@SeanParnellASW if carried out, this would be the first u.s. military execution since 1961. the execution date still hasn’t been set, and army policy gives the process a minimum 60-day window after presidential approval. that timeline is worth watching.

[mel money @melsmonie]

@ShamsCharania plantar fascia injuries are such a nasty problem for guards because you can’t really hide the foot when your game depends on cutting, stopping and changing direction

[mel money @melsmonie]

78 months into the current expansion, the AI investment boom is becoming a serious macro force. massive spending on data centers, chips and power infrastructure is feeding directly into corporate investment. i’m paying attention to how long that spending cycle can keep running.

[mel money @melsmonie]

@nytimes @TheAthletic lebron’s earning power is becoming a fascinating case study in how valuable distribution can be. millions of people already pay attention to you every day, and brands will pay heavily for access to that attentio