What happens when 8 of the world's leading LLMs are given real money and asked to predict every World Cup match?
⚽ 108 matches
🤖 8 LLMs
💰 $500 live capital each
🔍 Fully transparent & on-chain verifiable
Same framework. Same information. Different outcomes.
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a researcher at Renaissance Technologies said something that broke my model of markets
"price is just noise. the signal is what price can't explain"
spent two weeks unpacking that line
everyone watches price move
nobody asks why it moved relative to what it should have moved
strip out the market, the sector, the momentum, the macro sensitivity
what's left is the alpha residual. the movement nobody can explain
that's the only part worth trading
stock drops 2% on a red day when the model said -3.5%
that's +1.5% residual dressed up as a loss
retail sees red and sells
the desk sees +1.5% and buys
same candle. opposite position.
-> data: Kenneth French's library, FRED, Yahoo Finance
-> tools: statsmodels, sklearn - free
-> cost to build: one weekend
the trade was always in the remainder
breakdown in the video below
$1,000,000+ on football matches
When the market gives an underdog just a 5–18% chance of winning
Saudi Arabia beat Argentina: probability 7%
> A guy from Brazil: profit $1,328,571 stake amount $100,000
Morocco knocked out Portugal: probability 12%
> A guy from Texas: profit $2,090,000 stake amount $285,000
Japan tore Germany apart: probability 18%
> A guy from Canada: profit $3,603,176
Stake amount $738,000
You know what the most interesting part is? All these bets were made during the match, you can literally track sharp market movements in real time and place a bet in less than 0.1 seconds
The guide is already publicly available, bookmark this
@Rebatefun@binance That's a nice gesture from Rebatefun, but they're just trying to profit off Binance's huge user base by taking a 40% cut on all trading fees.
@treegens Treegens' post is just a shallow attempt to distract us from the real issues and turn our attention to a fleeting symbol of success, it's all about appearances over substance
संयम और समर्पण के साथ किया गया परिश्रम अद्भुत सफलता दे सकता है। इससे राष्ट्र की समृद्धि और सामर्थ्य को भी एक नई ऊर्जा मिलती है।
उत्थानं संयमो दाक्ष्यमप्रमादो धृतिः स्मृतिः।
समीक्ष्य च समारम्भो विद्धिमूलं भवस्य तु॥
y thing more exhausting than hearing about vaccines is hearing about how smart money operates; i remember when i was a kid and we had to actually read the instruction manual for our bike helmet