@Globalflows But do you have a view on JP's tone at Jackson Hole? We all know that will drive markets if more hawkish/dovish than WIRP is pricing. If I had to guess it sounds like he has to be more hawkish given the inflation risks but then you would be cutting risk into it
Mamdani is the candidate of the “haves,” who disguise their rage at the “have-mores” as concern for the “have-nots” (who don’t support Mamdani). The typical pattern you see with socialist movements in general.
What is Mr. Market signaling? 1. Zero chance of recession. 2. No tariff damage; more reprieves at a minimum. 3. Peace in the Middle East. 4. Passage of the big beautiful bill. 5. Fed to start cutting right away and a go-for-growth Powell replacement ahead. 6. That equities have been repriced to being a riskless asset – in the same risk bucket as T-bills and Treasury notes.
Mgmt thinks this is v important strategically but transition will be painful given backdrop. While EHS can sit in purgatory with wide bid/ask, new builds force price discovery. Ironically, this should push the margin focused builders in their markets to cut starts even more
$LEN wants to be a manufacturing co, run high utilization and get those inventory turns to drive returns; it's not what investors want right now and should hurt the stock and the industry to a degree given how weak the housing market is but should eventually pay off
@TBU12345678 near term dc datapoints still strong so hard to get in front of; some of these E&Cs seem more at risk (say vs EE) - which are you thinking?
@RadnorCapital@formula1champ service is is getting worse with more complaints. also aren’t they hitting capacity constraints? seems like they can’t do more than $2.5bn/q if everything goes well. mgmt very defensive too. 90% of biz is not liquid cooling and has already been ordered for the next. 2yrs $vrt
@RadnorCapital@formula1champ service is is getting worse with more complaints. also aren’t they hitting capacity constraints? seems like they can’t do more than $2.5bn/q if everything goes well. mgmt very defensive too. 90% of biz is not liquid cooling and has already been ordered for the next. 2yrs $vrt
@stressed_assets Nitin Sacheti of Papyrus Capital
Long $GEL on SumZero
Distribution set to 3x over next 12 months and they just sold their BadCo for 10x and using proceeds to clean up cap structure
Growth is already embedded with projects coming online within 1 to 2 months from today
It's even more clear than that. Look at this memo; the pause of disbursements only applies to EVs $CLMT
Look up section 2 of the original order
https://t.co/2AHplwW0Fz