mgyahoo

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

@BennettTomlin @intel_jakal @Bitfinexed @Protos @CasPiancey as i #duediligence say: follow the
1. money
2. people connection (very insider co-mingled)
3. structures ..legal entities
4. product offerings
5. RELATED PARTY tx: old-style = written contract & don't repay; #Crypto bro's .. wha contract, just "borrowing"?

#SCAM
188 countries

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

@miquelgirones1 Renaissance is old brand, look at hotel groups' newer brands, new builds...
Marriott status easy during Q1 Global Promo. Marriott largest pgm but sucks for Milestones , stay 75 nights to get one Free Night Award..crap value

Milestones (get smth along way): Hyatt #1, IHG #2

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

@everycountry197 Yes.

And in years past, very limited locations for rental - had to rent in the capital....then the drive many km

...on roadside of main highway, fellow standing over his rental car with engine problems, who had been waiting hours

there are risks and "calculated risks"

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

4. Mtg's ...anyone remember 2009 ??

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

@MacroJason @imidaily quoting since "only soome accounts may reply"

1. Fixed income w/o fx hedge:
a. KZ yields mostly too low now and generally so in past.
b. UZS what are you invested in?
c. general ww thought that USD will decline against "everything" hasn't happened

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

Here are the 5 macro themes I am currently invested in via real estate, stocks and bonds. Ranked based on conviction and position size:

1. Bucharest real estate: multi year bet on price to income ratio convergence with CEE average. Driven by continued income growth, capital city population growth and return migration of Romanians.

May be accelerated by rate cuts, increase in mortgages issuance (current v low) and government help to buy schemes (currently practically non existent).

Other contributing factors: increase in tourism, increase in migration from Western EU (in particular Southern Europe with similar language) as situation there gets worse.

2. #Kazakhstan macro via $HSBK, $KSPI and long duration government bonds. #Uzbekistan macro via local corporate bonds. Did not go for #UzNIF but may go for Uzum IPO. Looking into real estate in Astana, Almaty and Tashkent.

3. Energy mainly via oil stocks $PBR and $VAR.OL. Electricity (Brazilian utilities) via $CIG. Small coal position via https://t.co/OgWMyA7c94.

I entered my energy positions before the Iran war and without expecting the war to happen so soon. Thesis was more around the sector being cheap and hated, and that low investment into oil infra throughout prior decade will eventually bite. $PBR and $CIG also serve as secondary bet on Brazilian macro and $EWZ inflow.

4. Chinese exports continued growth with particular confidence in the EV segment. Expressed via $HAUTO and $WAWI (EV RoRo shipping) and various shipping ports stocks.

5. Chinese AV / robotics: self driving cars bet via $PONY, $WRD and $HSAI. Bet on tech adoption (only alternative to third world migrants is robotics) but also Chinese geopolitics (need other countries to allow your AV tech) and rest of world buying Chinese tech stocks (these 3 companies have US ADRs).

_

My approach: multi asset class macro investing driven by my own thesis and ideas. Concentrated portfolio. Comfortable with multi year holding period. Vast majority of portfolio pays decent yield whilst waiting or thesis to play out. Avoid labels of 'value' or 'growth' investing - focused on what offers the best asymmetry (max upside for min downside).

Leverage and hedges: zero debt on Romanian real estate (but still 30%> AAR since 2022). Around 1.5x leverage on equities (can survive around 50% drawdown, before tapping into other funds). No currency hedge on Kazakh & Uzbek fixed income.

I have written hundreds of posts on the above topics. You can ask Grok to summarize my thesis on each. If you write a good prompt, you will likely get a decent answer. Example prompt: https://t.co/ZiFONwRKVv

As always, no investment advice - think for yourself.

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

2. signif time CEE/ex-USSR since 2007: #moldova, part Rom & Rus, late 2000s couldn't be registered at guest house as owner-operator registered elsewhere; PMR Transnistria similar thing

3. Dwelling size for demand/liquidity/affordability + new builds, despite pop gwth near 0

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

@WealthyExpat good for the Wealth Mgr raking in the fees

AND
they put clients into the same securities

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

@bold_perception @TheAustin24 Medellin climate waaaay better , quite different on the humidity

Are you mixing up temperature degrees in F and C ?

Just some dude trying to pump up the location ... you're not a pioneer / making some big discovery
Did you read Affilate Mktg for Dummies ?
More bullshit

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

@bold_perception be BOLD, go to Cuba ..for that Passport Bro in you

heck, even you can find a girl there

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

@bold_perception been those, done those

be bold, go to Greenland, though seems it might get overrun with Americanos

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

@everycountry197 E = East side (of Africa) = Easy

but northern Kenya, when asphalt ends and on dirt road can get stuck in mud

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

@michaeljmcnair @DrJStrategy Waitress was talking about gold, silver... and DRC "you know the ingredients for your phone come from African mines"

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

@EnergyInvest0r Congrats.

Is that USD or Zimbabwadian dollars ?

You need to live in Canada for that product TFSA ?
Imagine living anywhere , with the TF part

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

@everycountry197 Roads? need to go north 50%+ country length, then in Cameroon come back south

However, kidnappers were entering Nigeria and kidnapping ppl eg. Boko Harem

So, take boat (adventure, etc), but potentially rough seas.
Boat was hijacked and capt & crew killed

Flew to Cameroon

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

@everycountry197 In contrast, trip 2yrs prior, Kenya-Ethiopia muddy-road, truck stuck ~middle nowhere. Ppl stand around doing nothing...useless.
Driver went away supposedly town 80-100km (usual Qs & emotions)

Another stuck truck had shovel. Shoveled, wedged, hands bled. Got unstuck.

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

@everycountry197 River.
Water level
Truck stuck, 50%+ of trailer underwater.

Humans, all contributing, to pull chains to propel small "ferry" (foot passengers) across river. Next border X-ing significant km away.

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

@everycountry197 imo
1. Kenya/Tanzania - spend only bare time needed to get flight out of Africa. Why? K&T easier to access/visit in future, and rather developed vs other countries

2. Namib, Bots -> Zambia interesting border Xing, Zimbab moonlight rainbow Vic Falls, Mozamb, Malawi lake all cool

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

@everycountry197 was (still is?) relatively common occurrence on boat from Nigeria to Cameroon + seas can be very rough

and the landline phone number for the boat company doesn't work
Why ? b/c Nigerian telecom co bankrupt

[mgyahoo @mgyahoo1]

@everycountry197 yup, as often said:
there are places to visit and places to live

and circa 2010, came up with countries categorization , of places visited
A
B
C visited, but won't visit again (parts of Africa, etc)