Michael Adelman

Environmental engineer with a passion for science in the service of the community. Opinions my own.

[Josh Turek @turek4iowa]

Great game, Mr. President. 🏀

Iowa, you heard President Obama. The ball is in your court. Join our campaign and help us Push For Change: https://t.co/WBFGxximW6

[Michael Adelman @michael_adelman]

@Brien_Jackson Also worth saying - we have finally, after a decade and a half, gotten out from under the iron heel of the Republican gerrymander in the WI legislature and we would have had the chance to draw fair House maps.

That's all gone. The Scott Walker Autocracy will snap back.

[Michael Adelman @michael_adelman]

@Brien_Jackson No she fucking can't. I'm sorry. Anyone who has her track record of police/prison abolition DSA lunacy is totally unelectable in a swing state.

If she's the nominee she will get crushed, Rebecca Cooke in WI-03 is also doomed, and maybe other House Dems in the Midwest.

[Michael Adelman @michael_adelman]

The belief that we need to take SNAP away from hungry Americans to offset upper-class tax cuts strikes me as a much more salient and impactful "luxury belief" but you do you I guess ...

[Washington Post Opinions @PostOpinions]

The most progressive parents in the United States are giving their children the most traditional names.

“People with options choose the safest [names] for their own children, while praising risk and novelty for everyone else,” @robkhenderson says.

“In my journey from foster care to Yale, I coined a term for this pattern: luxury beliefs.”

🔗 Read more about what the latest data on baby names says about progressives: https://t.co/qOj85gLtnS

[Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias]

A very large fraction of political engagement is expressive rather than instrumental, so the audience for political content has a very limited interested in questions like “is this actually true?” versus “does this affirm what I want to be true?” and outputs reflect this.

[Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias]

There are very strong financial incentives throughout the media to tell an unrepresentative group of highly engaged, educated, younger progressives what they want to hear.

[Michael Adelman @michael_adelman]

To be scrupulously fair, this year Bernie has *also* endorsed some terrible House candidates.

He's helping us throw away ME-02 to Paul LePage, and if he gets his way in MI-07 we're toast there too ...

[Opie 🚂 @showmeopie]

Like him or not, Jim Clyburn has gotten more done as a congressman and person than professional fucking cry baby Bernie Sanders. What exactly has Bernie does this year other than endorse a fail son merc rapist cosplaying as a working class guy?

[Michael Adelman @michael_adelman]

Corn festivals have always been overrated. Having SC first creates the correct incentive for candidates to go straight to where the primary will be decided - the social halls at AME churches.

Whoever can impress people there has won every Dem Presidential primary of my lifetime.

[Everything Price Sufferer (but especially eggs) @agraybee]

THEY NEVER HAVE TO VISIT ANOTHER SHITTY CORN FESTIVAL AGAIN.

[Michael Adelman @michael_adelman]

@swiftiegg I genuinely believe that Republicans are more likely to flip MI, GA, NH, or MN (in roughly that order) than Dems are to flip ME or NC. And the double digit Trump states are all Safe R as much as I like some of the Dem candidates like Peltola and Turek.

I'm a sincere pessimist.

[Michael Adelman @michael_adelman]

THIS THIS THIS

Republicans are currently on track to *expand* their majorities in the House and Senate.

If this happens after all the devastation they have unleashed, MAGA will bury us for a generation.

We need to be the kind of party that swing voters want to support.

[Sarah Longwell @SarahLongwell25]

At some point Dems are going to have to grapple with the reality that in the face of all of Trump and Republicans’ manifest horribleness and incompetence, people aren’t rushing toward the Democrats. If you think the DSA stuff is helping, you’ve never talked to a swing voter.

[Michael Adelman @michael_adelman]

@swiftiegg If the national environment looks anything like the below, Republicans win easy majorities in both the House and Senate.

[Adam Jentleson @AJentleson]

Suboptimal

[Michael Adelman @michael_adelman]

Ideological agreement. Trump believes that Russia's autocratic political system, kleptocratic economy, stiflingly traditionalist culture, and smash-and-grab foreign policy are all affirmatively good. And he is trying to implement all these things in America.

[invented Power Rankings @CentristMadness]

Does anyone have an explanation for this that does not involve the Trump administration being compromised

[Scott Lemieux @LemieuxLGM]

One underrated thing about Obama in 2008 is that his analysis of health insurance market incentives -- that sticks weren't politically sustainable so you needed more generous carrots -- was widely derided as cynical pandering but turned out to be completely correct

[Michael Adelman @michael_adelman]

@michaeldomps I'll put it this way - since I personally have pretty left of center views I would love to live in a world where figures like McLeod-Skinner routinely won competitive seats.

But they don't. And I have to be honest about what we can actually do to beat Republicans.

[Michael Adelman @michael_adelman]

@TheyFearMyVoice I'm actually very sad about the cuts to SNAP and Medicaid and all the people being hurt. But those of us who disagree with this have a lot of work to do to persuade the public.

[Michael Adelman @michael_adelman]

@michaeldomps We have a bunch of examples of super lefty candidates underperforming like this, and some (like this one) that cost us a seat. We have ZERO examples of a Justice Dems or DSA candidate actually flipping a red seat.

[Michael Adelman @michael_adelman]

@michaeldomps We have literally run this experiment in OR-5.

2022 - progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner primaries an incumbent Blue Dog. District goes Wyden +7 but she loses by 2 points.

2024 - Dems nominate a normie New Dem Janelle Bynum. District goes Harris +8 and she wins by 3 points.

[Michael Adelman @michael_adelman]

@michaeldomps I'm not clear on how this theory describes reality. The parties are *very* far apart on fiscal policy, like whether Federal funding should go to SNAP and health care or upper-class tax cuts. Dems' unpopular views are mostly on cultural questions. The public loves Medicaid!

[Michael Adelman @michael_adelman]

@LeftRight234 I think even D+3 is wildly *optimistic* for Dems given the issue trust and voter reg numbers. There aren't enough of us and the public disagrees with us. Electorate will be at least R+4 by raw registration.

I'm very angry about SNAP and Medicaid cuts AND that we're losing anyway

[Michael Adelman @michael_adelman]

@LeftRight234 Perhaps - but Rs have a shot in GA, NC, MN, and NH in a D+2-3 environment.

And I'm sure you agree that Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House and Senate majorities.

[Michael Adelman @michael_adelman]

@michaeldomps Beating MAGA in elections and standing up to the horrors they are inflicting on us is the highest priority. I am obsessed with winning and I'm not willing to gamble some kids' SNAP benefits on untested theories of how to do so.

[Michael Adelman @michael_adelman]

@michaeldomps In 2024 we won a bunch of House and Senate seats that Trump carried. Moderates won *all* of them.

What this chart means is that if we had Justice Dems in every frontline seat we'd have something like 30 fewer seats right now and we would not have won a majority *at all* in 2020