Michael B.W.

market navigator/survivor

[Michael B.W. @michael_b_wang]

https://t.co/SeAl7CVXBL

Check out my latest #Tradingview post on #Netflix $NFLX, where I break down my perspective on why this may be the cheapest stock in the market right now.

[3X Long Labubu @labubu_trader]

Will be back to the US next week.

Talked to a few PMs during my trip in the last two weeks. I’d like to share some interesting findings:

Sentiment: Overall very panicked and confused.

Positioning:
1. Shanghai HFs are extremely long on memory names, partly due to the TRS restriction I mentioned a few weeks ago. They are quickly selling CN semis across the board and buying DRAM ETFs to lower margin pressure.
2. HK HFs are mixed and divided; bulls and bears are balanced.
3. US LOs are waiting—not about stock prices but still don’t believe LTAs can turn memory names from cyclical to growth valuations.
4. Macro HFs sold all of their memory/semi positions.

Interesting points from both sides:

Bulls:
1. Supply chain checks suggest prices and margins will remain higher for longer.
2. AI capex in 27/28 will grow much higher than most expected.
3. OAI/ATH’s ARR shows no signs of plateauing. Codex’s WAU is growing crazily right now.
4. Kimi K3’s tech report literally suggests every semi component is a bottleneck 😂
5. No macro risks; CPI/PPI much cooler.
6. Even if memory spot prices can’t go higher, these memory companies can do large buybacks or dividends to support the stock price.
7. OAI/ATH is hiring a large team of solution engineers to quickly build vertical solutions (finance/healthcare/legal) to find the next S-curve beyond coding.
8. Even if memory names fade, the entire semi sector will remain intact.

Bears:
1. Higher memory prices are not sustainable and will be demand destructive. Clients will push back on further price hikes, and even the government may step in to force massive production expansion.
2. Memory prices will peak in Q4.
3. No doubt on 27 capex, but 28 capex budgets are clouded.
4. Even if fundamentals are solid, the position is extremely crowded and Korean retailers’ leverage is a huge concern.
5. Even though CSPs’ capex planning is aggressive for 27, a large portion of deliveries will be delayed due to power supply constraints.
6. No intermediate story of fast AI application adoption like AI coding.
7. Higher prices and more LTAs during the upcycle can’t prove memory names aren’t cyclical anymore. We need to see resilience during the downcycle to prove that, like memory names keeping the lower bound of margins in a downturn.
8. Memory is the core of AI: if traded memory dies, then everything dies.
9. Memory has no difference vs. other commodities such as silver, oil, or lithium carbonate. When they peak, their narrative and fundamentals all look fucking good 😄

[Michael B.W. @michael_b_wang]

@tmnxeq @StockMKTNewz This figure excludes the special employee dividends.

[Paradis Labs @ParadisLabs]

I've worked in IB & PE. Now I run a hedge fund.

So I'm pretty qualified in knowing what good analysis looks like.

One key thing I've learnt in my career is that you *have* to enjoy reading equity research so you don't get burnt out.

But naturally, only a few firms/people are talented enough to put out truly enjoyable, digestable research.

Some of them are hiding in plain sight, right here on @X

-----

So with that, here's a non-exhaustive list of people on @X I look forward to reading on a daily basis, in the hopes that some of you will too (if you're not already!)

In no particular order:

> @illyquid - mainly Asian related AI semis/hardware research & live analysis

> @damnang2 - in-depth, technical semiconductor research/theses

> @aleabitoreddit - deep thematic research/theses & company/sector analysis

> @PhotonCap - technical photonics & semiconductor research/theses

> @pepemoonboy - mix of macro/company specific comms

> @crux_capital_ - technical photonics deep dives & crucial updates on key players

> @Frenchie_ broad macro commentary & analysis

> @Blinklebloop - data centers / AI value chain analysis

> @KawzInvests - deep AI/tech/space analysis

> @degentradingLSD - broad macro/AI aligned commentary & analysis

> @michaelsikand - photonics/AI aligned research & commentary

> @Kaizen_Investor AI supply chain analysis & other sector specific trades

> @Yeah_Dave - broad macro comms & space/AI specific

> @TheValueist - AI-aligned research & company specific analysis

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

The helium panic makes for a compelling headline for $EWY, KOSPI, Taiwan, and Japan.

Similar to the LNG panic before finding out the Korean giants were fine.

However, the underlying mechanics show the memory players in SK Hynix and Samsung in specific are highly insulated from potential Helium disruption.

SK Hynix put out a statement to Reuters:

"Long secured diverse supply chains and sufficient inventory" of helium.

"Therefore there is almost no chance that the company will be affected."

Samsung have not put out statements yet, but from their Q4 earnings call they stated:

"We are proud to be the first in the industry to develop and deploy a helium reuse system for semiconductor manufacturing"

This "enables us to recover and purify helium for redeployment, cutting annual consumption by approximately 4.7 tons and achieving a reuse rate of around 19%"

Samsung confirmed that this system is already active on production lines and likely protects their supply chain.

When investors panic from headlines around structural exposure due to Kim Young-bae's claims about 90% reliance on Middle Eastern imports shutting down HBM production.

The Volza trade data contradicts it, but the discrepancy could be gaseous vs. liquid helium categorization, transshipment, or Kim rounding up for political effect.

Regardless, it looks like the two large Korean giants have largely secured their Helium supply chain from conflicts in the Middle East.

The core point of the selloff markets are missing:

United States will not let their AI buildout stall from Middle East Conflicts. SK Hynix and Samsung are in the center of it all.

US/Korea Technology Prosperity Deal to protect advanced technology supply chains as well.

And especially so, when companies like SK Hynix put out definitive statements:

Stating there's no chance the company is affected from helium.

Markets are pricing in the worst case scenarios for Helium/LNG disruption but looking at the statements suggest it's a buying opportunity.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Photonics is the next major bottleneck.

$NVDA has signaled each one ahead of time from:

HBM (with Samsung/Sk Hynix) to CoWoS and now with the $LITE and $COHR investment:

Laser Fab, CPO, and InP.

For the most asymmetrical longs in each bottleneck:

1. InP Substrates: $AXTI, Sumitomo, JX
2. InP Upstream Feedstock + Processing: $AXTI
3. Lasers: $AAOI (internal), $AVGO, $COHR, $LITE
4. CPO: $TSEM, Soitec.

The laser bottleneck was confirmed from the $AAOI earnings call when three different hyperscaler wanted to buy out any optical transceiver they can produce.

The InP substrate bottleneck was confirmed with the backlog from $AXTI. (Image source of players: IndexBox)

And the CPO bottleneck is widely expected to happen later in late 2027-2028.

There's short term volatility from $AVGO comments around "CPO" in specific. But that's different than the laser -> transceiver and InP bottlenecks happening now.

For timeframes:
$AAOI, $LITE, $COHR and the laser transceiver bottleneck is happening real time (and is expected to get worse like memory into 2028).

$AXTI, Sumitomo and the InP substrate bottleneck is happening real time (and is expected to get worse as long as AI uses photonics for the many years to come).

And the larger architectural shift to CPO led by $NVDA will likely happen in 2028.

These feel inevitable for the next paradigm shift in AI.

[Michael B.W. @michael_b_wang]

@Bluntz_Capital $EL8 breakout imminent

[Michael B.W. @michael_b_wang]

@jatinkrmalik @jkrdoc Lmao you don’t understand how manufacturing works

[Seth Golden @SethCL]

100% of the time 💯

Since 1942, buying $SPX on Midterm-Election Day (MTE) generated a median return of +15.2% through June 30 of the following year (7 months forward).

Never, not once, ever was there a negative return in the forward 7-month period.

World War II, Vietnam War, 1970s lost decade, Dotcom Bubble, GFC, all macro-time periods included.

$SPY $ES_F $QQQ $DIA $GLD $BTC $VOO $VIX $AAPL $NVDA $META $AMZN $TSLA $RUT $IWM

[EWT @EWcycles]

Imagine $MARA $MSTR

[Michael B.W. @michael_b_wang]

@Bluntz_Capital Insane call

[Yeomyung (theo/acc) @duaud9912]

It’s been almost two months since I last tweeted about $USELESS

Over that time, useless has underperformed BTC by 2–3x on the downside, becoming one of the weakest major alts. I know many holders are exhausted and have moved on. It doesn’t feel as attractive as it once did.

Yet I haven’t sold a single token. I’m still holding my long.

The past two weeks felt like spring in the trenches: MIA, SPSC, Ralph, then GAS and NPM. I traded them, held size, and believed the AI meme → meme supercycle might be restarting.

I was wrong.

In two days I lost over $100k, effectively donating liquidity to devs like @Steve_Yegge. It makes you wonder if any real hope remains in the Solana trench.

Still, I believe useless can make a new ATH and eventually reach a billion.

Watching GAS, NPM, and the endless trash coming out of bags only reinforces the truth: most of this market is useless. Crime repeats. Liquidity gets extracted. Hope gets recycled.

That’s why the “everything is useless” meme is so powerful.

useless was one of the best-performing memes in last year’s brutal market. It’s cheap again, but the idea is deeply etched in people’s minds.

@theunipcs keeps rotating his trading profits into useless. As long as he hasn’t given up, it’s hard to believe the story is over.

I hope the trench warriors don’t lose faith.
One day, useless makes a new high.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

https://t.co/smgK72PeXk

[Michael B.W. @michael_b_wang]

@Bluntz_Capital Thoughts on copper?

[Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒 @theunipcs]

Memecoin Dominance is around all time lows

things weren't even this bad during the 2022 - 2023 bear market!

the last time things were this bad for memecoins was in February 2024

shortly after:

- $PEPE rallied 2,500%
- $WIF rallied 1,600%
- $FLOKI rallied 1,000%
- $BONK rallied 440%

at the time, everyone was screaming 'memecoins are dead for good with the bear market'

then we had the most explosive sector-wide memecoin rally of the cycle shortly after

sentiment feels just as bad right now if not worse

a lot of major memecoins are down 80 - 99% and feel completely dead and hopeless

and this is just the perfect setup for a meltup in the memecoin markets

[Michael B.W. @michael_b_wang]

@theunipcs Uselss is the way

[Michael B.W. @michael_b_wang]

@theunipcs GOD WILLING

[Michael B.W. @michael_b_wang]

@theunipcs Fud is useless

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

This raises many adjacent questions.

If the bull market is running on the circle jerk based on OpenAI, where does this leave us?

If the bull market is built upon $NVDA, does this mean we will see an $NVDA into $GOOGL rotation?

Were $ORCL, $AMZN and alike selling off post earnings because of this change or was it random... Is it our answer?

Does this mean lower overall cost for consumers as GOOGL consolidates the market? Is this good through an increased consumer productivity or bad through lost market cap from current leaders?

Is this why CDS exploded higher lately on all mega caps?

...

[Michael B.W. @michael_b_wang]

@level941 Energy trade

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

The economics just don't work
Look at the IREN-MSFT deal
It totally favors MSFT
GPUs are expensive and depreciate fast
Either act as a colocation provider or have great software that allows u to charge a premium
Being a baremetal GPU provider is the worst kind of business
Totally dependent on Jensen's whims