Michael Daniel Sagatis

Inter generated proto celtic/slav uniting genealogy with creative content to help understand & heal the effects of inherited hard history. [email protected]

[Jason Corcoran @jason_corcoran]

Final countdown to Friday's UK launch of Leaving Russia at @Pushkin_House
● A huge thank you to everyone who has supported the book. A few places are still available. message me if you'd like to join.
And yes, the aircon will be on. ❄️

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

U.S. intelligence agencies have warned the Trump administration that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to take steps that will undermine President Trump’s effort to reach a lasting peace deal with Iran - US officials to WAPO

[Jay in Kyiv @JayinKyiv]

While the Gates of Hell have opened today in Moscow, Russians still naively still mire in the belief that these catastrophes are merely an impediment to this summer's seaside holiday, when in reality they've begun to pay a price that will last for generations.

[Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 @jurgen_nauditt]

Attack on Moscow, photo of the day.

[Jason Corcoran @jason_corcoran]

All four of Moscow’s airports have shut down arrivals and departures amid the largest Ukrainian #drone attack on the capital since the start of the full-scale invasion
@meduza_en
https://t.co/Fu9MirmMuQ

[Physics In History @PhysInHistory]

Newton spent more time writing about alchemy and theology than about physics or mathematics.

[Jason Corcoran @jason_corcoran]

Where is Putin's Central Banker ?
● Elvira #Nabiullina, who vanished from public view at the end of May, is scheduled to attend the traditional press conference following the regulator's rate meeting on June 19: CBR statement
https://t.co/nYd6fsqAv3

[Dan O'Brien @danobrien20]

A must read piece on a profoundly consequential subject.

One minor issue, and not to take away from the piece overall.
France is mentioned as looking at confiscating Russian assets. This, of course, has been a massive issue at EU-level in relation to Russian assets in the bloc which were mostly housed in a Belgian clearing house. The reason these assets were not confiscated is complex but ultimately telling, and scary.

[Dan the “Shadow Tanker Bonker” @realLangerDan]

‼️Wow

In a stunning article (read it) from @jason_corcoran, he confirms that Ireland had drawn up plans to nationalise Aughinish Alumina as early as 2022 to protect the jobs as a “last resort”.

This shows that it remains possible to do so and that blue prints to do so exist.

[Jason Corcoran @jason_corcoran]

Do Putin's Oligarchs Have Kompromat on the Irish Government?
● My OpEd for @irishexaminer today looks at Ireland's continuing deference to #Rusal and refusal to consider nationalising the #Aughinish refinery.
https://t.co/9wRknH5NJ6

[Jason Corcoran @jason_corcoran]

The extended absence of Putin's Central Bank chief, Elvira Nabiullina, is becoming harder to ignore.... especially given @business reports that she tried to resign after the invasion.

https://t.co/bBIVTtXCQN

[Jason Corcoran @jason_corcoran]

Made my debut on Serbian TV yesterday after being invited by the journalist Tanja Vujisic to appear on the independent station @Insajder_net to discuss my book 'Leaving Russia' and the exodus of so many Russians to the Balkans.
● Interview from 19.10
https://t.co/YUoZjL28Y0

[Jason Corcoran @jason_corcoran]

If a psych ward couldn't silence Remeslo, fear is no longer holding the elite around Putin.

[Jason Corcoran @jason_corcoran]

"25% of Russian bond market at risk of default:" It's nearly impossible for cash-strapped firms to refinance at levels near 15% CBR base rate

[Velina Tchakarova @vtchakarova]

Global System Rupture: We Are Now at Day 65
The Global System Rupture is no longer a foresight. It is the operating environment. It represents the fourth systemic risk-driven global crisis of the 21st century.
1️⃣ The first was the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.
2️⃣ The second was the COVID-19 pandemic.
3️⃣ The third was the Russia–Ukraine war and the energy shock it unleashed.
4️⃣ The fourth is the current rupture triggered by the Hormuz Cascade and the simultaneous breakdown of energy, food, finance, logistics, institutional trust, and geopolitical order.
This is not a conventional crisis. It is a threshold event.
A Global System Rupture occurs when cumulative stress across interdependent systems exceeds the capacity for managed adjustment. At that point, shocks no longer remain contained within one domain. They multiply across the system.
➡️ Energy becomes food insecurity.
➡️ Food insecurity becomes political instability.
➡️ Logistics disruption becomes industrial scarcity.
➡️ Financial stress becomes sovereign vulnerability.
➡️ Proxy wars become bloc consolidation.
➡️ Price signals become allocation regimes.
At Day 65, the rupture sequence has moved beyond early warning.
The Strait of Hormuz is declared open, yet functionally closed. Global energy inventories are draining. Fertilizer and food cascades are accelerating. The agricultural calendar is locking in consequences for the 2027 harvest. Financial stress is spreading through emerging markets. The DragonBear axis is consolidating. The global system is bifurcating not by ideology, but by logistics, allocation capacity, and strategic depth.
The core issue is not whether the system can “return to normal.”
It cannot.
The relevant question is what kind of new equilibrium emerges from the rupture and who has the strategic robustness to navigate it.
This is where the simultaneity approach to global affairs becomes essential. We cannot understand the current environment by looking at isolated crises. The rupture is defined precisely by the fact that multiple systemic risks are activating at the same time, reinforcing each other, and overwhelming the stabilizing mechanisms that worked in previous crises.
The analytical task is therefore no longer foresight. It is navigation.
Physical systems do not negotiate. They function, or they collapse.

[Jason Corcoran @jason_corcoran]

Enjoyed being live on @RTERadio1 Today flagship programme earlier with the brilliant broadcaster
David McCullagh to discuss my book Leaving Russia which is out in the wild from today in all good bookshops.
Link: https://t.co/wq0qsv0B7k

[Jason Corcoran @jason_corcoran]

📢 Apologies for the near daily posts but today is launch day for my book, Leaving Russia.
📚 Dont take my word. I've been fortunate to receive some endorsements from much more established authors in the field @Billbrowder, @edwardlucas, @cjcmichel @cjcmichel and Conor O'Clery.

[Jason Corcoran @jason_corcoran]

Great to be live on @TimesRadio in London today with host
Hugo Rifkind to discuss my book Leaving Russia, which is out tomorrow April 30th in all good bookshops throughout UK, Ireland, Europe and beyond with @amazon
● Hugo's Dad even features in the chapter about oligarchs!

[Velina Tchakarova @vtchakarova]

We are on the brink of Global System Rupture amid the Fourth Systemic Risk-driven global crisis after GFC, Covid and Russia’s war on Ukraine.

[Jason Corcoran @jason_corcoran]

"This has never happened in modern Russian history."
● Putin's Central Banker Elvira Nabiullina declared an unprecedented labor shortage in the economy caused by driven by an exodus of 1.5m people and 1.3m in the meat grinder.
@MoscowTimes_ru
https://t.co/RcrICAijqg