Mika ∞/21M | 13%

Jesus is king. shitcoiners gfy

[naiive @naiivememe]

" You'll own nothing and you'll be happy "

[Mika ∞/21M | 13% @Michael_Silber]

@BobLoukas If top is 55 and we are at 58 what are the probability that the top is in? Lol I wonder why it didn’t say 100% cz that’s pretty much your logic

[azurexbt @azurexbt]

Trading BTC next couple of months?

Long read but should be worth it. Let me know in the comments whether it was useful.

Here’s two must watch videos:

https://t.co/XKh8IByQ53
https://t.co/dc6acDLt0Z

Shout out to legends @BobLoukas and @camelfinance. I’m referring to their videos throughout this post.

Bob says, “the environment was there in October for a blow off top” but then (paraphrasing), BTC price diverged from the prevailing risk-on environment, suggesting that the top is in for the cycle. "Unless this is a similar event to the April event", which can’t be ruled out, but structure, distribution, downturn, timing, etc, all suggest the top is in.

I don’t disagree with any of Bob's take or process. I also like his suggestion that the coming bear market might be more about time than price (both 47k and 74k got a mention), which fits with 1. bear market drawdowns have been diminishing each cycle anyway, and 2. it has been clear for some time that the ‘rules of engagement’ (expected behaviour) of BTC are being re-written in real time since the advent of ETFs and institutional/tradfi influence on BTC price action.

However, I have the same questions that Camel has, and for the same reasons. I agree with them both that at the very least, a bearish retest of the highs is very likely but also find it hard to imagine BTC going into a bear while equities are ripping and the long awaited QE money printer is brrr-ing, through to January at least anyway. There’s no 4 year cycle ‘timing window’ reason why BTC couldn’t top 2-3 months later than usual, and given that all the previous 4 year cycles have coincidentally lined up with the business cycles, potentially giving a false impression of causality, its reasonable for this cycle to continue until the spending spree ends. We saw this illustrated in Nov 2021 when the expected blow off just didn’t happen due to heavy macro headwinds. Conversely, right now the headwinds are about to become tailwinds for at least a couple of months, so why wouldn’t BTC join in?

TOP’s IN?

Against:

1. None of the traditional suite of top indicators have fired - only a potential distribution top on the chart, a black swan, then very heavy institutional outflows, a stock market wipeout day and a whale dump or liquidation to finish it off (more on this below)

2. There is significant QE/money printing coming (has been delayed allowing further price destruction in the meantime) and stocks look to have just finished their cyclical retraces (which always impacts BTC now), so its time for the cycle to finish what it was doing

3. The previous 4 year cycles may have been more a reflection of the business cycle than the halving mechanics and resulting supply/demand and price expectations, so in the same way that macro may have ended the 2021 cycle with no blow off top, this time all the the macro suggests that this cycle is not finished yet

In favour:

1. The top was ‘right about on time' (6 Oct) for a 35 month 4 year cycle top

2. There is no reason why the suite of top indicators HAVE to fire any more - this is not 2013 or 2017. Nov 2021 is a good case study

3. There is no reason why there has to be a blow off anyway - once again 2021 demonstrated this and times have changed. We were just hoping for one, that's all :)

4. Returns for the cycle based on diminishing returns per cycle have come in close to on-target (around 2.1x-2.4x top to top expected vs around 1.7x achieved)

5. The price action and resulting sentiment the last 6 weeks will prove to be unrecoverable, in particular because it will become self-fulfilling as profit taking begins again approaching 120k

"Show me the chart and I’ll tell you the news”

You’ll often hear this - its a way of saying if there’s an imbalance on the chart that ‘needs' to be filled, there will be some news that supposedly is the ‘cause' of it being filled. While I take the point, I find it reductionist and an example of the binary thinking that pervades X and our world today.  As a BTC trader, I have learned that the opposite is also true and in fact now more frequent, that context is everything. You need to know the WHO, WHAT and WHY (for example if price is dumping) because it will have a profound effect on what happens next and these often structured and usually strategic moves often have ZERO to do with an imbalance on the chart and may or may not be attached to any news for extra impetus. More commonly, it is a large player deliberately moving price for profit, market makers taking out liquidation clusters, or more recently, institutional (and now OG) flows.

Case in point, there have been a series of events and catalysts over the last 6 weeks, starting with an entirely normal retrace to 116k, then the 10 October black swan through to the low on 21 November.  I’ll list some of them here, but my point is, its not ’the market’ making decisions here. The market was happy to go up on 6 October. It is certain players and certain events. And depending on how ruthless or persistent they are, eventually 'the market’ loses its mojo and has to go along with what they wanted.

Some of the events between 6 Oct and 21 Nov:

- Profit taking (also previously active at 123k, 124k and 126k)
- Everything was normal enough with the profit taking and cyclical retrace until 116k
- Oct 10th black swan 116k -> 103k
- Repeated heavy sell twaps - presumably institutions/large players...
- plus cyclical decline for stocks, 116k -> 99k
- Plus massive ETF outflows 106k -> 94k
- Plus OG sellers, 93k needed to hold for recovery, but...
- Fri 21st massive stock sell off 93k -> 86k
- Final overnight 5k drop to 81k due to a single whale market dump or liquidation

This is why context is everything. It helps to determine if there is going to be a recovery (depends who was selling and why), how long the recovery might take (depends what methods they used to sell in terms of price destruction and sentiment), and whether it might have all been too much for confidence and brings the cycle to an end, when if Oct 10th hadn’t happened, BTC could be about to finish off a Wave 5 run to 147k or 165k right now as stocks get ready to pump again.

So coming back to the all important question of 1. a bearish retest, or 2. a new ATH, if stocks are pumping at the time, whether price rejects around 120k will come down to the same groups of people or institutions who sold off heavily at 123k, 124k and then 126k in July, August and October which stopped incredibly bullish progress in its tracks each time. Quite honestly, it will take a small miracle or some massive top blasts to break through what is going to be even heavier profit taking this time. Bob is planning to exit in tranches by 115k, naming 117k as a potential choke point, and I think that is exactly where we will see it begin to happen.

Back to Camel, it’s still hard to imagine that Stocks rip in Dec/Jan but BTC dumps. And as I’ve said, if so it will probably be the profit taking that kills it. But I’m very invested in the new ATH option (probably late January if the new weekly cycle left translates as you would expect), and would really like that to happen for my longs. But as traders we don't gamble, we just assign probabilities to scenarios based on data and design trades to suit where we like the asymmetric risk reward. So it was interesting to hear Camel begin to assign rough probabilities to these two options as I do, now that we are getting closer. We will no doubt alter those percentages as the data changes. Definitely worth watching both videos when you can, to get the whole picture.

Last word, if you traded BTC during the 7 month long consolidation last year, you've already learned that our trading world has changed from those very specific and aggressive twaps each time price hit the top of the range (the longest one ran for a full week of New York sessions). It wasn’t 'the market’ doing that and it wasn’t because there was a gap to fill. It was able to be measured and the effect on time and price estimated. Context is everything. And you will know that 2025, with the additional Trump effect, probably one of BTC’s most disappointing years, has confirmed it. We are not trading the same instrument we were trading prior to 2023. These days I won’t make a move without understanding the dumps or without the Nasdaq chart open. Wasn’t what I had hoped to be trading, but it is what it is.

Now on to hopium for a new ATH and the bull case!  I’ll explain the attached chart which focuses on what it could look like but raises important questions in the next post.

[Mika ∞/21M | 13% @Michael_Silber]

You’re not “holding frame.”
Your life structure is the frame.

[Mika ∞/21M | 13% @Michael_Silber]

@CryptoReviewing We don’t need crypto

[Mika ∞/21M | 13% @Michael_Silber]

@naval @signalapp I almost had a kinetic reaction, but then I remembered that I don’t talk to anyone 😁

[Mika ∞/21M | 13% @Michael_Silber]

@TheGuySwann Wow you’re so generous

[Mika ∞/21M | 13% @Michael_Silber]

@oliverburdick @ghostofmatias2 People who say resurrection was more important do not understand the meaning of the ultimate sacrifice. The mechanics, the consequences

[Mika ∞/21M | 13% @Michael_Silber]

@tarik_sammour @cryptotea That’s going to be a next level enlightenment “There are ZERO bitcoins on exchanges, why the price is still going down???”😁

[Mika ∞/21M | 13% @Michael_Silber]

@tarik_sammour @cryptotea That’s going to be a next level enlightenment “There are ZERO bitcoins on exchanges, why the price is still going down???”😁

[Mika ∞/21M | 13% @Michael_Silber]

@TellYourSonThis Please God, not a woman

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

🧵BITCOIN'S FINAL ATTACK

Corporate adoption of Bitcoin is the FINAL SPECULATIVE ATTACK on fiat currency.

Let me explain the game theory that every CFO will eventually realize… 👇

[Mika ∞/21M | 13% @Michael_Silber]

@Cobratate Try making someone happy. Even just for a second- it will stay with you forever

[Marty Bent @MartyBent]

Fuck you.

[Mika ∞/21M | 13% @Michael_Silber]

@steezy10_ Like if you want to SMD

[De Christian Life @DeChristianLife]

"Controversial" takes of a wife on marriage

[Mika ∞/21M | 13% @Michael_Silber]

@LocalBateman In Thailand 🇹🇭 it’s- sapparòd

[Wholesome Side of 𝕏 @itsme_urstruly]

You could read in his eyes that revenge is on in his mind as he trains.. 😂

[Mika ∞/21M | 13% @Michael_Silber]

Nowadays I’m thinking about this movie almost everyday