Michael Blanga-Gubbay

Research Economist at @WTO || Lecturer at @PSIASciencesPo and @econ_UZH || International Economics & Political Economy of Trade || Views my own || he/him 🏳️‍🌈

[Michael Blanga-Gubbay @michaelblanga]

So happy to share that our paper is forthcoming in @EJ_RES
Lobbying efforts on the ratification of FTAs are dominated by MNCs, which (virtually always) support them and have larger potential gains from their ratification. You can read more here 👇🏼

[The Economic Journal @EJ_RES]

Forthcoming in EJ: ‘Lobbying for Globalisation’ by Michael Blanga-Gubbay, Paola Conconi, Mathieu Parenti https://t.co/P13lUJws4U @michaelblanga @Mathieu_Parenti @RoyalEconSoc @OUPEconomics #EconTwitter

[WTO @wto]

How will the Middle East conflict impact trade in 2026?

Higher energy prices, transport disruptions, and fertilizer supplies are factors that may affect trade in goods and services according to the latest #GlobalTradeOutlook. More: https://t.co/RhVoZqhd4q

[WTO @wto]

BREAKING: Trade is forecast to slow in 2026 after stronger than expected growth in 2025. WTO economists also provide a scenario of even weaker growth if the Middle East conflict leads to a prolonged period of higher energy prices. #GlobalTradeOutlook More: https://t.co/RhVoZqhd4q

[WTO @wto]

New report finds global value chains resilient, reconfiguring amid latest challenges #WTOPublications https://t.co/gOJM4I47Ry

[Michael Blanga-Gubbay @michaelblanga]

Truly honored to take part in the Chinese launch of the 2025 World Trade Report in Shanghai today! @wto @ciieonline

[WTO @wto]

The Chinese edition of 2025 #WorldTradeReport was launched today in Shanghai. It explores how trade and AI can work together for the benefit of all. DDG @johahill delivered a video address, and Economist Michael Blanga-Gubbay joined the panel discussion. https://t.co/f9zlguJK06

[Michael Blanga-Gubbay @michaelblanga]

Another one (well deserved) for growth theory ;)

[The Nobel Prize @NobelPrize]

BREAKING NEWS
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the 2025 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt “for having explained innovation-driven economic growth” with one half to Mokyr “for having identified the prerequisites for sustained growth through technological progress” and the other half jointly to Aghion and Howitt “for the theory of sustained growth through creative destruction.”

#NobelPrize

[WTO @wto]

BREAKING: WTO revises #GlobalTradeOutlook: Goods trade growth forecast raised to 2.4% in 2025 but cut to 0.5% in 2026. AI product surge & frontloading boosted 2025 so far, but impact of tariffs & cooling global economy likely to set in next year.

🔗https://t.co/sHHM4BValX

[Michael Blanga-Gubbay @michaelblanga]

That’s big news!!! China to forego Special and Differential Treatment in new WTO Agreements

[Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala @NOIweala]

Sharing major news key to WTO reform! Premier Li Qiang of China has just announced that China will no longer have access to Special and Differential Treatment in new WTO Agreements. This announcement was made at a meeting convened by China on its Global Development Initiative on the sidelines of #UNGA. Many thanks to President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang, Minister Wang Wentao and the entire China team for this development! This is a culmination of many years of hard work and I want to applaud China’s leadership on this issue!

[Michael Blanga-Gubbay @michaelblanga]

Launch of the 2025 World Trade Report: making trade and AI work together to the benefit of all #WTO #WTOPublicForum @wto

[Michael Blanga-Gubbay @michaelblanga]

The first-ever WTO deal on environmental sustainability is now in force!

[WTO @wto]

🌊It’s official: the WTO Agreement on #FisheriesSubsidies is now in force!

At a special General Council meeting, Brazil, Kenya, Tonga & Viet Nam accepted the Agreement, taking us over the two-thirds threshold.

The first-ever WTO deal on environmental sustainability is here!

[Michael Blanga-Gubbay @michaelblanga]

Frontloading and measured responses partially cushion 2025 tariff impact, but global trade outlook weakens for 2026:

[WTO @wto]

FORECAST UPDATE: Global goods trade to grow +0.9% in 2025 and +1.8% in 2026. DG @NOIweala notes broader tit-for-tat retaliation has been avoided but warns the full tariff impact is still unfolding. More: https://t.co/QSY7KQidUe #GlobalTradeOutlook

[Michael Blanga-Gubbay @michaelblanga]

It’s not only about tariffs: services trade growth slowed in Q12025, due to currency movements and increased economic uncertainty

[WTO @wto]

Services trade growth slows in first quarter of 2025 #WTOStats #GlobalTrade #ServicesTrade https://t.co/7hBzBKnDwV

[WTO @wto]

WTO monitoring highlights sharp rise in tariffs alongside search for negotiated solutions #WTOStats #GlobalTrade @NOIweala https://t.co/wz8bKHhf3A

[Michael Blanga-Gubbay @michaelblanga]

Our Global Trade Outlook and Statistics is out!!!

[WTO @wto]

BREAKING: Under current tariffs, goods trade is forecast to fall 0.2% in 2025, 2.9 pp less than baseline. Downside risk of reciprocal tariffs & broader uncertainty could lead to sharper decline of 1.5%. Services trade also affected. #GlobalTradeOutlook: https://t.co/gw6CWYFYM8

[Michael Blanga-Gubbay @michaelblanga]

We’re hiring!!!

The WTO is looking for two research economists to join our team. Apply now: https://t.co/FYOSpQIiFR

#WTO #econ #EconTwitter #economics #Jobs

[Michael Blanga-Gubbay @michaelblanga]

It’s out!!! :)

[The Economic Journal @EJ_RES]

Hot off the press! The February 2025 issue is out now.
Featuring ‘Lobbying for Globalisation’ by Michael Blanga-Gubbay, Paola Conconi, Mathieu Parenti @michaelblanga @Mathieu_Parenti @RoyalEconSoc @OxfordJournals #EconTwitter
👉https://t.co/gD3YyUhQe2

[Michael Blanga-Gubbay @michaelblanga]

Over 80% of global goods trade occurs on MFN terms, per a recent WTO paper. This highlights the crucial role of the multilateral trading system - even amid rising preferential trade agreements and trade tensions

Bravo to my colleagues Gonciarz & Verbeet
https://t.co/kjkUapjwLr

[Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala @NOIweala]

Today, it is with humility and a great sense of honour that I thank each and every one of the 166 WTO members for the consensus they achieved in supporting my reappointment! Thank you for the wonderful words of recognition and support. I don’t take this lightly. I also want to thank my colleagues in the Secretariat Staff for their dedication and hard work.

This is an enormous responsibility and I will redouble my efforts to work with each and every member to try and deliver the results this organization needs, including the necessary reforms to make it fit for 21st century challenges. We’ve done it before, we can do it again! I am also grateful to my family, my country, to the Africa Region, and to all my friends and colleagues from all over the world who have reached out with hundreds of congratulatory messages. Thank you for the recognition!

[Michael Blanga-Gubbay @michaelblanga]

Well done and well deserved DG!!

[WTO @wto]

Breaking: the General Council has appointed Director-General @NOIweala for a second term, effective 1 September 2025. More details to follow.

[Michael Blanga-Gubbay @michaelblanga]

Well deserved!

[The Nobel Prize @NobelPrize]

BREAKING NEWS
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the 2024 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson “for studies of how institutions are formed and affect prosperity.”

#NobelPrize