michalismichael

Geopolitics / Cyprus / Greece / Hellenism current events

[michalismichael @michalismichael]

@zgizemozpinar Misleading is something you do every time you post...

[michalismichael @michalismichael]

@AtillaEng https://t.co/wqhpurM2IS

[michalismichael @michalismichael]

@sefakarahasan When will the Turkish historic confessions happen? You know, we killed innocents in Komtemenos, we planted the bomb at the Turkish consulate and blamed the Greeks, we killed any Turkish Cypriot that disagreed with us, etc etc.

[michalismichael @michalismichael]

@mehmet_dilbaz Occupied lands, freed from the Ottomans. Fixed it for you.

[michalismichael @michalismichael]

@embargoed @100Kypro Turks and Israelis are very similar. Both came in as conquerors, one with the sword, the other with the wallet. Given time, they think of Cyprus as their own, they demand rights, partnership and threaten us with extinction. Maybe this is the reason you don't like them property.

[michalismichael @michalismichael]

@ottomanenglish Unassigned sovereignty?
Let him declare whatever he wants, it seems to get the crowd excited!

[michalismichael @michalismichael]

@auto_esuberante @sefakarahasan Sure Selim, whatever makes you feel good

[michalismichael @michalismichael]

@auto_esuberante @sefakarahasan And yet Turkey killed more than 5,000 people, raped thousands of women and created thousands of refugees, ethnically cleansed northern Cyprus and more. Thousands were taken to Turkish prisons, many never returned. These are the facts.

[michalismichael @michalismichael]

@auto_esuberante @sefakarahasan The fact that you need me to produce evidence of Turkey's invasion of Cyprus is in itself evidence that you have no clue about the topic at hand.

[michalismichael @michalismichael]

@embargoed At some point, this needs to be investigated. Yes Papadopoulos didn't negotiate, but the effort to appease Turkey backfired. Anan1-3 were accepted by GC, but Turkey kept pushing for more thinking this was in the bag. Your analysis is way too one-sided.

[michalismichael @michalismichael]

@TravelerX73 @stevenacook Another educated Turk blessing us with his culture...

[michalismichael @michalismichael]

@ottomanenglish If the whole thing hadn't been fixed by Kissinger, the Turkish invasion would have been a tremendous failure.

[michalismichael @michalismichael]

@ristovskyAt First of all revise your entire text to read North Macedonia.

[michalismichael @michalismichael]

@mtkhanX @GeorgeCGeorgio1 Cyprus was the only colony that was denied the right to self determination! That's a fact, since you want to know facts!0

[michalismichael @michalismichael]

@GPamboridis Αιωνία του η μνήμη. Σαν ασθενής του του είμαι ευγνώμων.

[michalismichael @michalismichael]

@ottomanenglish Turkey's legal obligation is to ensure the Republic of Cyprus remains valid (wth TC participation). Propping up a separatist entity, ethnic cleansing and maintaining 40k troops on the island DO NOT constitute a legal basis! Period!

[Grecanicus 🇬🇷🇨🇾🇮🇱🇺🇸 @Grecanicus]

"🇹🇷 Ankara's Real Enemy Isn't
🇬🇷 Athens, 🇮🇱 Jerusalem or 🇨🇾Nicosia — It's the 🇹🇷 Lira"

The Eastern Mediterranean & Middle East are undergoing a major strategic realignment.

On one side, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇬🇷 Greece & 🇨🇾 Cyprus are deepening security, energy and infrastructure ties alongside the wider Abraham Accords architecture. On the other, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia & 🇵🇰 Pakistan have created a new collective-defence framework through the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement.

This is about far more than military alliances. Energy fields, EEZs, territorial waters, electricity interconnectors, undersea cables, shipping routes and access to European markets are becoming strategic assets.

Turkey increasingly sees Greek territorial-water expansion, Cypriot EEZ development and Greek-Cypriot-Israeli energy infrastructure as a challenge to its regional position.

But Ankara faces a fundamental constraint: economic endurance.

Turkey has large external financing requirements, substantial short-term external debt and Turkish non-financial companies carry a very large negative net FX position.

A war with 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇨🇾 Cyprus or 🇮🇱 Israel could therefore trigger:

Capital flight → TRY depreciation → FX losses → higher inflation → higher interest rates → more expensive corporate refinancing → weaker investment → banking stress.

At the same time:

War risk → tourism ↓ → FDI ↓ → shipping/insurance costs ↑ → energy costs ↑ → current-account pressure ↑ → FX reserves ↓.

A conflict with Greece would create an immediate EU/NATO crisis. A conflict with Cyprus would directly confront Turkey with the EU. A conflict with Israel could risk US involvement and further escalate an already dangerous Middle Eastern energy crisis.

And this is the crucial point:

Turkey may have the military capacity to initiate a conflict.

But military capability is not the same as economic endurance.

If markets begin pricing a genuine risk of war, Turkey does not need to lose the war for its economy to suffer.

The real danger is:

geopolitical escalation → capital flight → TRY crisis → corporate FX/refinancing stress → banking stress → sovereign downgrade.

So the question is not simply:

"Can Turkey afford to fight?"

It is:

"Can Turkey afford the financial consequences of starting the fight?"

[michalismichael @michalismichael]

@Grecanicus Excellent post! Very well articulated!

[michalismichael @michalismichael]

@RasmusJarlov Funny how you believe that the only risk for Europe is Russia. We live in a very different world, with actual borders to non-EU countries with active casus belli directives against us. So, spare us the lecture Rasmus.