Micro Burry

Following the smart money on #ASX 🇦🇺 🔍
Decoding broker data & institutional flows 📈 Not financial advice | DYOR 🚀

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

My breakdown of how I benefit from ASX broker transactional data for trading struck a chord on HotCopper a few months ago. Thought the Twitter/X community would appreciate these 12 practical strategies below
1/ 👇

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

TASNIM: THE RESISTANCE FRONT AND IRAN HAVE SET THEIR AGENDA TO COMPLETELY BLOCK THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND ACTIVATE OTHER FRONTS, INCLUDING THE BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

I'd also add that the opposite side of retail investors is not necessarily institutional investors, but a much broader group of professional investors. This includes various wealth management firms, family offices, boutique funds, and smaller equity funds. As a group, I believe they are generally smarter than retail investors because they have access to better tools, spend more time researching companies, and are typically less driven by emotions or the tendency to fall in love with a stock.

Importantly, these investors can operate across virtually any market cap range. You can often spot them through brokers such as Canaccord, Shaw, FinClear, and many others.

Again, I want to emphasize that I'm talking about broad groups, not individuals. From experience, most people know how the majority of retail investors tend to behave.

The chart in the tweet you referenced actually shows accumulation by a group of investment banks — only around nine brokers, including Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Citi, and others. These participants typically become active once a company reaches a market cap of around $300M+, and from that point they can provide significant buying support and momentum.

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

There are of course cases where retail accumulate and the price still goes up – but almost always, at some point instos start buying too and that's what drives the real sustained move, especially with larger cap stocks.

The key point though: retail buying isn't really a signal on its own. Retail are buying all the time, especially early when things don't look great. The edge I look for is the pivot – when retail switch from buying to selling. That's when the tide shifts and shares start drifting from retail accounts to professionals, slowly or quickly.

That pivot moment is what I like the most. To me it signals that the stock is entering its growth phase. Yes, the price might already be elevated at that point – but when that pivot happens I know there's still a long runway ahead. I'm not trying to pick the bottom. I'm trying to pick the moment that I think has the best risk/reward and is just entering the fast growth phase. That's exactly where I want to be.

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

$WBT $WBT.AX – Very aggressive insto accumulation right now relative to what we've seen before.

Also worth noting how reactive it looks – positions shifting from buy to sell very fast.

Personally missed a fair chunk of the move but still got in around $6. Buying high to sell higher - as I've said many times, I prefer this approach over trying to pick a bottom.

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

$WDS $WDS.AX – Instos still adding but at a much slower pace than before.

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

Broker data over past month

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

$BHP Instos vs retail divergence - instos buying, retail selling.

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

@jazzyolaa Yeah, broker data there is quite strong.

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

Haha I have an entire gallery of these in my garage. Used to be one of the artists myself. Recovered now 😂

[MarketLens @MarketLensAu]

This piece is called "Retail Investors Catching a Bottom". Also known as "It Can't Go Lower".

Medium: CommSec clients accumulation on a 6-year downtrend
Artist: Endeavour Group (EDV)

Currently showing at the ASX, admission free.

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

@AvidCommentator Sometimes I can’t believe the events we’re witnessing. It feels like a ridiculous dream.

[G 🇦🇺 @bluewolfpack1]

Just spent an hour reading posts on the US and Iran deal . Let me summarise what the deal looks like -

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

Auction results - Sold To Listed
- Sydney 27.5% (28.0% last weekend)
- Melbourne 39.4% (38.2%)

Sydney plummets to a new all time low since my records began in 2018 (ex-public holidays and Xmas season)

A ridiculous 48.4% of results unreported, which might be an all time high outside of holiday impacted periods.

This could still theoretically boost the result come SQM's release on Tuesday.

SQM's data this week confirmed the weakness seen in my data last weekend, with the weakest result since the absolute height of Covid (ex-public holidays and Xmas).

Melbourne on the other hand mounting something of a fight back, up 3 percentage points from its recent lows, but still 10 percentage points down from where it was at the end of February.

This may be partially due to Melbourne being theoretically less exposed to negatively geared investor demand compared with Sydney, possessing the highest rental yields of the mainland state capitals.

Overall both markets remain profoundly weak and highly vulnerable to a further reduction in demand stemming from the changes to the federal budget. #AvidAuctions

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

Yeah, that's the pain we all feel. Personally I don't feel the direct impact because I rarely hold anything longer than a year on my active trading account – my whole philosophy is centred around getting into the growth phase at the right time.

But all these changes are slowly making ASX a dead place, especially in the speculative micro cap space :(

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

Significantly reduced long exposure over the past few weeks – the market is in rough shape so I've repositioned. Sold most of my ASX 300 holdings. What's left: energy stocks – $WDS, $STO and a few others – plus a handful of short positions, small in size.

Now shifting focus to small and micro caps – building exposure gradually and keeping it small for now. Will share a few here, mostly for educational purposes – just to track how things evolve.

First one: $LSA, copper and gold play. Broker data over the past few months shows top buyers are clients of Argonaut and Canaccord. One of my favourite combinations – when both are leading the buying, I'm very bullish.

#ASX #SmartMoney #Trading #copper #gold $LSA $LSA.AX

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

Accumulation/distribution chart for retail – starting to look like a pivot.

The setup I really like: retail switching from buying to selling, telling me that a broader group of professional investors are starting to look at this stock.

Someone looks at the price and thinks it's too high to buy now. I look at the retail pivot and think – that's probably the right time.

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

$AVR $AVR.AX – Was planning to post more micro caps today but this one is closer to $1B – still worth posting.

Broker data for the past 2 weeks: a few instos accumulating. The rally was triggered after the May 5 news – honestly don't fully understand the news, but the pros clearly liked it.

That's why I like broker data – no need to be an expert in pharma, geology, or finance. Just need to recognise patterns and understand how statistics works.

#ASX #SmartMoney #Trading $AVR $AVR.AX

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

Accumulation by the investment bank group.
There was already some accumulation before, but not at the pace I personally look for. After the announcement though, the scale relative to what came before gives a good hint.
$AVR $AVR.AX

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

$STO Accumulation by a group of invest banks over past 3 months

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

A month on from this post. Gold sitting at $4,520 – down from when I posted. No major macro shift yet: strait still closed, dollar still strong, more inflation fear.

Still short selected goldies. Still on track.

#gold

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

This move feels more and more natural. Macro is supporting it too (for now): the strait remains closed → higher oil → higher inflation → no rate cuts → stronger dollar → gold going down.

Shorted a few selected goldies 😛

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

$LSA – Accumulation by Argonaut clients.

[Micro Burry @micro_burry]

$LSA – Accumulation by Canaccord clients.