Mike

Geo politics and data analytics. Gaming and heavy music. Views are my absolute own.

[Oishik Samanta @OSResearch_IN]

Goldman Sachs research: AI is eliminating a net ~16,000 U.S. jobs every month
• Substitution: –25,000
• Augmentation: +9,000
Gen Z & entry-level workers taking the brunt
The charts say it all 👇

[Mike @MikeAnalytic]

@TfL your westbound mildmay driver is slamming the breaks hard at stations. What the heck is going on? Currently at Camden Road.

[Mike @MikeAnalytic]

@nulasuchet You didn't mention the homeless beggars on ubahns? 😜

[Mike @MikeAnalytic]

@JakubKrupa UK doesn't have issue allowing over a thousand isis fighters to return so why a European politician... 😂

[Mike @MikeAnalytic]

Independent candidate in the polling station at canning Town North District. Shameful behaviour.

[Mike @MikeAnalytic]

Heavy streetside harassment from independents in front of polling stations in Newham. Surely not legal?

[S.T.A.L.K.E.R. OFFICIAL @stalker_thegame]

Different companies. Different universes. One goal.

Congratulations on the announcement of “Metro 2039”, friends.

There is a celebration in the Zone today.

@4AGames 🤝@GSC_GW

[Hunterbrook @hntrbrkmedia]

BREAKING: Grizzly Affair — American tech company’s networking gear is powering Russian battlefield communications in Ukraine. The company is Ubiquiti, $UI, a $34 billion Wi-Fi giant whose founder became the youngest owner of an NBA Team in 2012.

[Mike @MikeAnalytic]

@Frances_Coppola No words of compassion for the slaughtered freedom loving people of Iran? Why? I've got your books and usually find your posts interesting... But you silence on this topic is telling.

[Alireza Talakoubnejad @websterkaroon]

I'm getting questions from a few different people, so here is my best attempt to explain what has happened in the past two days in Iran:

1. What is Happening?

- The primary reason there has been an outbreak of protests is because the loss of value of the toman to the point of ~145,000 toman per dollar. We had been hovering between 105 and 120 for a few months, but in the past 10 days there's been a rapid depreciation to new lows.

- Alongside this loss of value, there's been very rapid inflation, particularly in the cost of food. Ordinary people are under significant pressure to make ends meet.

- Yesterday (Sunday), there were protests that broke out among shopkeepers in a mall that primarily focuses on selling mobile phones and electronic goods. They shut down their stores and protested. It's noteworthy this is where they started because this group is particularly vulnerable to large currency fluctuations, given that their goods are all imported. Most the initial protests have been among people in this category.

- Today (Monday), there were additional protests in other shopping centers and bazaars in Tehran in the morning. There also were ordinary people who aren't shopkeepers that joined in. These lasted for an hour or two.

- At night (it is currently 10 PM in Iran as I write this, so we're talking about just a few hours ago) there were additional protests in other cities than Tehran. Some shopkeepers but also just random people protesting.

2. Context within Domestic Politics

- A lot of what is happening centers around one guy - Mohammad Reza Farzin. Farzin was appointed as the Governor of Iran's Central Bank (a role analogous, but not identical, to the Chairman of the Federal Reserve in the US) by former President Raisi. He was one of many Raisi holdovers that continued their job under Pezeshkian.

- From the very beginning reformists hated Farzin and wanted him gone. There's a lot of intense political battles around this. Exactly one year ago there were similar (but smaller) protests in the Tehran Bazaar over basically the same thing as now. It was widely expected that Farzin would be sacked then, but nothing happened. Instead, in March, Majles impeached Abdolnasser Hemmati, the Minister of Economy (the dollar was ~90,000 toman then).

- Hemmati was the Governor of the Central Bank in Rouhani's second term when Trump's first maximum pressure campaign was happening. Iran's economy did quite poorly then, but some argue Hemmati prevented total economic collapse. Again, many reformists pushed for the president removing Farzin and putting Hemmati instead of him, but Pezeshkian refused.

- Now today in response to the protests, Pezeshkian finally removed Farzin & replaced him with Hemmati. So the guy that got impeached for the dollar hitting 90,000 toman is now being given the job of fixing things once it hit 145,000. That being said, the initial reaction of the market was positive, and it retreated to ~137,000. But it's way too early to see if that's just a blip or the bleeding is under control.

- This also plays in to pressure on the government to enter negotiations with the US. It's notable that the when the Pezeshkian admin first engaged with talks with Trump, the toman recovered from 108,000 per dollar to 75,000 per dollar in a matter of days.

- In my view, the whole affair also makes Pezeshkian look even more weak and indecisive. He could have made this same change a year ago, but didn't take any action until the crisis reached a boiling point and could not be ignored.

3. Context with Respect to Other Protests

- Protests over currency devaluation have probably been the single most common type of protest in the past 2 decades. This happens a lot. That having been said, these seem to be on the bigger side.

- This matters in a context beyond the issues I've discussed so far, because there's massive discontent towards the government over many other issues. But people have been hesitant to go out into the streets and protest. These things usually need some sort of spark. Once one group goes and starts it over one issue, then the activation energy barrier for more people to protest over other concerns is lowered. We've seen that in the past.

- In my view, if anyone tells you they know what way this will lead then you should immediately discount them as being unreliable. These things are by nature pretty unpredictable. If they were to follow the previous pattern, then you'll likely have continued protests for a few days then it will die out. But again I want to emphasize, we don't know and it will take a few days to be sure.

- There are a variety of different political groups with different agendas outside the system in Iran. Anytime there are big protests, you'll have different members of these groups go and say slogans in favor of their team & try to get people to repeat them. And then film it. And then upload it online to say "look this protest is actually all about my team".

- In the next few days you will see intense arguments between people telling you which ones are "the true voice of the people" and which ones are "fake astroturfing". I don't care about those fights and am not going to take a side. I see some prominent people I follow try to dive into these partisan fights without understanding what is going on. I find that silly. No one group is representative of anyone.

- At some point, someone is going to blame foreign powers for this. I see some accounts pointing to some fake Mossad account and saying "look Mossad is telling people to protest". This is nonsense. The discontent is there. People are tired and struggling. This is very much a domestic thing.

4. Final Thoughts

- In my view, the most notable outcome of these events in the future will be the image of the protester sitting down in the middle of the street in front of a bunch of riot police. Experience from the past shows that this will not be the first or last series of protests that happen & at some point this will just blur into memory with dozens of other events. But people distinctly remember & draw inspiration from images like that one. That will matter.

- The pattern from the past is that for a few days the security services will be (relatively) tolerant and wait for things to die down. If they don't then they crack down hard and things get really ugly. I hope that doesn't happen.

[Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof]

Terror for terror’s sake

[Mike @MikeAnalytic]

@tubemapper Hot, cold and loud. Nobody who had to endure these daily will miss them. The epitomy of cattle class.

[Free Leaseholders @FreeLeasehlders]

Take liberation off your Christmas lists!

On Thursday, Number 10 sided with grifters, blocking the draft Leasehold and Commonhold Reform Bill.

@UKLabour cosying up to lobbyists and prolonging corrupt leasehold alienates flat-dwelling core voters ahead of the local elections.

[Mike @MikeAnalytic]

https://t.co/TlJZU2wZXT ring #watch #gold

[Mike @MikeAnalytic]

@JoannaHunt12 @Munqechick @SerpsSwimClub @SwimSerpentine Hope they prepare some puke bags for us

[Mike @MikeAnalytic]

@SerpsSwimClub Apparently the swim serpentine organisers are "taking measures"...

[Mike @MikeAnalytic]

@SerpsSwimClub What's the result?

[Mike @MikeAnalytic]

@JakubKrupa Gratulacje 🎊!

[Mike @MikeAnalytic]

@ClarkeMicah @ITEvangelist So you don't believe that countries occupied by russia behind the iron curtain did not willingly join a western safety "club" after their independence? You believe that for example Poland was not owed the entry into the NATO alliance after the West had failed it after WW2???

[Archie Hall @ArchieHall]

Energy in Britain has gotten scarce—and thus expensive.

Prices are high in absolute terms, and further above the European average than any point in at least 40 years (barring the 22/23 shock).

What's behind this, and is it crimping growth? I took a look for @TheEconomist. (🧵)