Hormuz Miscalculation
Sec Bessent gets it.
Iran has mistaken a tactical threat for a durable advantage. By repeatedly signaling its willingness to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran hasn’t strengthened its hand, it has accelerated the market’s exit.
Capital does not tolerate chokepoints; it routes around them.
Saudi Arabia is expanding its East-West pipeline. The UAE has already built out Fujairah as a bypass. Iraq is revisiting overland export corridors. Every marginal dollar now flows toward redundancy, not reliance. What was once a geopolitical lever is being engineered into irrelevance. Bessent gets it: markets don’t absorb coercion, they arbitrage it away
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Energy markets are not static, and they are not sentimental. The shale revolution already diluted OPEC’s grip. LNG has globalized gas. Now infrastructure is doing the same to maritime risk. Once these pipelines are built, they don’t get unbuilt. Volume shifts become permanent. Pricing power follows.
Tehran’s miscalculation is classic: overplay a scarce asset, and the world invests to make it abundant. The more Iran rattles Hormuz, the faster it erodes the very leverage it seeks to exploit.
In the end, this is not deterrence. Its substitution and substitution, once funded, is irreversible. Iran is underwriting its own marginalization.
The US is the big winner. China the big loser.
Welcome to the new great game.
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https://t.co/CQjUnFH3FD
David Friedberg says he’s fine letting LA run the socialist mayor experiment, just so the rest of the country can watch it fail and learn from it.
But there's just one problem in the latest election numbers: the voters never actually asked for this.
Sacks and Friedberg are calling out the weird gaps between early in-person voting and the late mail-in ballots that flipped things.
Friedberg straight-up says the math doesn't add up
@friedberg "The numbers on that election data show me that's not what the people wanted... the system itself has become a system of appointment, not a system of election."
@DavidSacks "Obviously. It’s statistically impossible."
LA isn't choosing a socialist experiment. It's getting assigned one.
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🚨So the Pope met with David Axelrod last week. David Axelrod. Obama's campaign architect. A man who is not Catholic, has never met a pope before, and whose entire career has been engineering political narratives for the American left.
And then, by pure coincidence, the Pope immediately started lobbing shots at the Trump administration, and three US Cardinals popped up on 60 Minutes doing the same thing.
All organically, I'm sure.
Thoughts?