🌦️ A Warm and Rainy Christmas: Why December Feels Unusual
This Christmas season has felt unusually warm and, in some areas, rainy—quite different from the cool mornings, dusty air, and dry Harmattan conditions we typically expect. Instead, temperatures have been more like February or March. So, what’s happening?
🌍 Large-scale climate drivers at play
Recent analyses have shown warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean. At the same time, a weakening of the Arctic Polar Vortex has disrupted normal atmospheric circulation. These have contributed to persistent low-pressure systems over the Atlantic, North Africa, and parts of Europe, resulting in reduced cold air surges into West Africa.
This has weakened the Azores High, a key system that usually helps push dry, cold air southward during Harmattan. With this system displaced, moist air has been able to penetrate farther inland.
🌬️ What this means for Nigeria
Nigeria’s weather is strongly influenced by the Intertropical Discontinuity (ITD). Typically, in late December, the ITD is located around 6–7°N, which supports dry and cool Harmattan conditions. However, between 20 and 28 December, the ITD shifted unusually northward to about 9.4°N—roughly 3° above normal.
📍 This means:
- Increased moisture and humidity across much of the country
- Rainfall is occurring farther inland, including areas that are usually dry at this time of year.
- Warmer daytime and nighttime temperatures are causing thermal discomfort
- In the far north, clear skies are allowing intense daytime heating
🔎 What to expect next
These conditions have persisted for over a week. As the polar vortex gradually recovers, the Azores and North African high-pressure systems are expected to strengthen again, allowing colder, drier air to move southward.
When that happens:
- Temperatures should gradually drop
- Harmattan dust will return
- Rainfall activity should reduce
🌡️ A bigger picture
An ITD position near 9.4°N is typically observed in late February or early March, not December. While short-term weather variability is normal, this event underscores how global climate change is increasingly impacting regional weather patterns.
👉 Stay weather-aware. Stay informed.