Mitchel

[Madelon Vos @MadelonVos__]

Jij: “Ik moet op 1 mei belasting betalen, maar inmiddels is de beurs met ruim 13,6% gedaald en zijn mijn aandelen nog maar €95.000 waard.”

Overheid: “Vervelend. Maar u moet nog steeds €3.600 belasting betalen over de 10% waardestijging van vorig jaar.”

Jij: “Dus ik moet nu aandelen verkopen om belasting te betalen over winst die inmiddels volledig is verdampt?”Overheid: “Correct.”

Jij: “Na betaling houd ik nog €91.400 over. Ik begon met €100.000. Mijn vermogen is dus met 8,6% gedaald, maar ik betaal wel 36% belasting alsof ik 10% rendement heb gemaakt.”

Overheid: “Dat waren nu eenmaal twee verschillende belastingjaren.”Jij: “Mijn winst was ongerealiseerd en tijdelijk. Mijn belastingaanslag is gerealiseerd en definitief.”

Overheid: “Precies. Nu begrijpt u hoe ‘werkelijk rendement’ werkt.”

[Adam Grant @AdamMGrant]

The hallmark of expertise is no longer how much you know. It's how well you synthesize.

Information scarcity rewarded knowledge acquisition. Information abundance requires pattern recognition.

It's not enough to collect facts. The future belongs to those who connect dots.

[Mitchel @mitchel__89]

Everything happening to $DUOL right now already happened to $SPOT in 2022. And the market was wrong then too.

cc @alc2022

Duolingo just dropped 21% after-hours. CEO deliberately chose user growth over short-term profit. Sound familiar?

Von Ahn last night:
"In 2026, we are deliberately prioritizing user growth and teaching better, even though that moderates near-term financial growth."

Daniel Ek had a similar message for investors at Spotify's Investor Day 2022:
"Lifetime value inherently captures the trade-offs between chasing short-term opportunities and driving long-term strategic initiatives. Not every decision will yield immediate returns."

"We saw such a significant opportunity so we decided to go aggressively. This meant making a significant investment, which impacted our overall gross margin."

In 2022 the market hated Spotify for it. Headlines at the time:
❌ "They've Gone Too Far" — Yahoo Finance
❌ "Achieving Profitability Looks Impossible" — Nasdaq
❌ "Will Spotify Ever Turn a Profit?" — Motley Fool
❌ "Nobody wanted to own Spotify stock in 2022"

Spotify fell 80%. From ~$364 to ~$70 Analysts called the business model structurally broken. Every single one of them was wrong!

But the strategy worked exactly as Ek promised. Users kept growing, price hikes stuck, margins expanded, FCF hit record highs. The monetization flywheel finally turned.
Spotify went on a run from $70 to $775.
A 10x in under 3 years. 🚀

One more thing nobody is mentioning: when Spotify was getting destroyed, it was burning cash. Duolingo is guiding $350M+ in free cash flow for 2026, while deliberately slowing monetization. The foundation is stronger. The parallel is the same.

Two quotes come to mind:
“Almost all good investing requires the willingness to be misunderstood in the short run, to look wrong before you’re proven right. The harvest belongs to those who planted seeds when everyone else was running from the field.”

“The ability to discipline yourself to delay gratification in the short term in order to enjoy greater rewards in the long term is the indispensable prerequisite for success."

LONG $DUOL 👀
Not financial advice

[Investing visuals @InvestingVisual]

https://t.co/bz6oJYAXPf

[Mitchel @mitchel__89]

@rcbregman @elonmusk Landmark study indeed but missing one important point:

Cutting USAID could namely also lead to more lives saved, if those billions are reallocated to higher-impact initiatives.
That’s the real question: not if we spend, but how.
#MoralAccounting

[Mitchel @mitchel__89]

@TRADEsterJJ Bought more

[Mitchel @mitchel__89]

@VadimKotlarov Can this $HOOD demo not be a catalyst for $SOFI

In the sense with all the hype it gets it can be a wake-up call for traditional banks

To stay competitive they may realize they must modernize their infrastructure — potentially driving more Galileo deals to $SOFI

Yr thoughts?

[Mitchel @mitchel__89]

Unexpected positive catalyst of $HOOD entering banking sector for $SOFI

🚨A wake-up call for traditional banks.🚨

To stay competitive they may realize they must modernize their infrastructure — potentially driving more Galileo deals to $SOFI
@DataDInvesting @FunOfInvesting

[Mitchel @mitchel__89]

@aletechview I’d advise caution with SoFi’s current P/E, as some sites use GAAP EPS, which includes a large one-time deferred tax benefit (see Q4 slides). Using adjusted EPS gives a fairer valuation.

Nevertheless. Sofi I still my largest position

[Mitchel @mitchel__89]

@SimeonResearch_ I thought stock based compensation was a not registered as a cash expense

[Mitchel @mitchel__89]

@StockMarketNerd I follow you for your level-headed-ness, and nuanced analysis.

Keep doing what you’re doing, in the way you are doing it!

[Mitchel @mitchel__89]

@Kross_Roads @nostress Have recently stumbled upon $OWLT and doing some DD and sentiment checks on X, and happen to see that the great and powerfull @Kross_Roads has been interested in this stock. Curious to hear your position on OWL now. I have started a small position

[Mitchel @mitchel__89]

@KyleAdamsStocks Would have picked $LGCY and $HIMS as well in their bracket, but picked others below so we find more names.

<$100M - $SRFM
$100M-1B - $DNA
$1B-$5B - $REAX
$5B-$50B - $FOUR
$50B-$1T - $SHOP
$1T> - $GOOGL

[Mitchel @mitchel__89]

@FunOfInvesting VS $Hims which has mayority 5 star reviews.

Product matters

[Mitchel @mitchel__89]

@FunOfInvesting 84% of One Medical reviews on Trustpilot give a 1 star review, with an average of 1.3

[Mitchel @mitchel__89]

@EventuallyWLTHY @FunOfInvesting There is also a potential positive element for $HIMS to this.

People with ED / Hairloss etc that are not yet aware of Hims. Become aware of online solutions through Amazon. After searching a bit further for alternatives, they will stumble upon Hims potentially free marketing.

[Chris Hoeger @DataDInvesting]

A bit longer form post on my thoughts about $AMZN and $HIMS:

There is no doubting that Amazon going heavier into the telehealth + pharma space makes things harder for hims and hers. Amazon has basically unlimited resources to throw at it. They can afford to get things wrong and lose money. This is a very small bet for them. They also already have a distribution network and 180M Prime subscribers in the USA to whom they can cross sell medications.

However, at the same time, I'm not particularly concerned. There are a number of reasons why and I'll try to describe some of them here:

First, hims has personalization as a tailwind. I know many don't think that's a huge distinguishing feature. If that were the case, then how could hims so quickly get over 50% of their subscribers into personalized regimens? It's obvious from the rapid growth of personalization and the uptake rate of personalization from new subscribers that this is something people want. Amazon, for now, does not have compounding facilities and cannot offer comparable products. That could change in the future, but it does give hims something to differentiate its offerings right now.

Second, hims intentionally operates outside of medical insurance. Amazon operates within that space. This means there is less overlap between their potential client base than what might have seemed apparent at first. It also means that hims can be much more agile in the way they operate.

Third, people are pretending like this is something new. It isn't. Amazon has been offering this type of service for months. Also, hims customers must not be particularly price sensitive. If they were, $GDRX, Mark Cuban's Cost Plus drugs, and even Amazon themselves have ALWAYS been a cheaper option than hims. The bespoke experience, convenience, and discretion have been differentiating factors for hims that have proven durable. Amazon's offerings share the convenience, and in some ways may be even more convenient than what hims can offer. They also mimic the discretion. This move does make hims less differentiated than it was. But make no mistake, competition is nothing new here and hims has grown in an extremely robust way in spite of the competition.

Fourth, people need to realize this is a space with an unfathomably large TAM. 17% of US GDP goes to healthcare. That's over $4.5T. There is so much market to grab that it is laughable to think that Amazon is going to get all of it. And even a carving out a small niche can make you an incredibly valuable company. I own $VRTX and $ISRG in my Roth IRA. You may or may not have heard of them, they aren't extremely well known companies. You'd probably call them niche in this industry. Each of these "niche" companies have a market cap over $100B. Even if hims becomes a "niche" player offering bespoke and tailored products, that's easily a market that could still make this a 20x+ investment at current prices if they get to be a $100B company.

Finally, innovation is the only truly enduring moat. Hims are pioneers in this space, are willing to reinvent themselves, and can be agile enough to mold the company to meet the biggest opportunities available. Their execution has been incredible. If they continue that innovation and execution, they'll find that niche.

Amazon entering the space is not a positive development, but it is far from a death knell. However, now we get to stress test how durable hims and hers really is. I'll be watching customer acquisition costs, growth, and margins to determine how they navigate this headwind. I feel confident they'll continue to outperform and that this is still an excellent place for my money to be invested. All companies have to perform when challenges come. Time for $HIMS to answer the bell and step into the ring. I think they'll continue to punch above their weight.

[Mitchel @mitchel__89]

@DataDInvesting Very well put. You truly have a gift for analyzing complex situations (and companies), and share well thought out, well-balanced considerations.

Also shareholder here. The "protesters apply here" link was a bit over de edge in my opinion.