Mitch

BTC / MSTR / MPJPY | Active Participant in the Arb of the Century | NFA

[Mitch @MitchTX21]

I think it sounds reasonable. Bitcoin is a very small macro asset with only a ~1.5T market cap.

Bitcoin at $500k has a $10T market cap

Gold’s current market cap is $30T

So even if Bitcoin were to teleport to $500k today, it would still only be 33% of gold’s market cap today.

However, by the time Bitcoin gets to $500k, gold will likely be $10k pro oz, with double its market cap today

$500k BTC = $10T market cap
$10k oz Gold =~$70T market cap

BTC would still be only be ~15% the size of Gold.

It has a lot of potential to meaningfully close that gap over time.

[Mitch @MitchTX21]

I think Bitcoin between $300k - $500k + by 2030 is a reasonable call at this point in time.

[CNBC @CNBC]

Debasement trade to take bitcoin to $300,000 in three years, Bernstein says https://t.co/o4WCUbBTHo

[Grain of Salt @GrainofSaltSF]

@MajorMaxBitcoin @clinkie44 Yes. @Metaplanet must do a reverse split.

[Mitch @MitchTX21]

@slaaaaaay496916 Wait until STRC is at par again and we’re deeper in this bull market. It will provide strong outperformance relative to BTC.

[Mitch @MitchTX21]

Sub-$100 $MSTR in 2026 will be looked back at as excellent buys.

That time period was marked by peak FUD and pure hatred of the stock.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see this thing rocket back up to $300+ over the next year.

It’s all just patience at this point.

[Mitch @MitchTX21]

@slaaaaaay496916 It’ll be much higher than that in time.

[Mitch @MitchTX21]

Does anyone else contemplate how ridiculous it could get?

Metaplanet has Superplanet up and running with a pref in the US. The Tokyo Stock Exchange approves MERCURY and MARS. Bitcoin is absolutely ripping. The Japanese are tapping the bid so hard their fingers are bleeding as they pump the stock to a 3x+ mNAV in euphoria.

My god, the share price would be going absolutely ballistic.

It’s been nothing but horrific pain for over a year in this name. But the opportunity is there for massive upside with significant Bitcoin outperformance when the time comes.

And it will.

$MPJPY $MTPLF $SLE $SUPA 3350.T

[Mitch @MitchTX21]

$STRK trading below its IPO price is outright preposterous.

[Mitch @MitchTX21]

@GrainofSaltSF @ColeMacro @PunterJeff @Werkman @Strive Yes

[Mitch @MitchTX21]

$210 $ASST should be a lot of fun this cycle.

[Mitch @MitchTX21]

Yes, ideally you’re able to continually add while it’s below the ATH to reduce your cost basis.

That’s the bearish scenario. We could also outperform and go to $300 - $500k by the end of the decade, which would make someone’s gains with a $126k cost basis astronomically higher.

By late 2030’s / 2040 I’d expect $1M BTC. It all depends on one’s time horizon and how long they’re willing to hold.

[Mitch @MitchTX21]

2025 top buyers will do just fine

Buy BTC in October 2025 at $126k

Commit to holding it for 4 years

Fast-forward to October 2029 and BTC is now $250k

Your investment grew at an annualized rate of ~19%, beating the historical returns of all other major asset classes

However, on the path to getting there you had to endure a 50%+ drawdown, and likely many more 20%+ drawdowns along the way

Holding is psychologically hard and requires patience, which is why many give up along the way

[Mitch @MitchTX21]

The people who bought $126k BTC in 2025 will end up doing just fine.

[Mitch @MitchTX21]

@MDBitcoin Yes

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

The funniest part of Bitcoin reaching $1 million will be watching people insist nobody could have seen it coming after 16 years of public price history, institutional adoption, sovereign accumulation, and one deranged man at Thanksgiving repeatedly explaining absolute scarcity while everyone begged him to discuss literally anything else.

[Mitch @MitchTX21]

CEBE mNAV’s

ASST: 1.80x
MPJPY: 0.95x
MSTR: 1.04x

You’re paying up for all of those things.

The question is, what will provide better returns from this starting point moving forward?

Will Japan wake up at some point this bull and push Metaplanet to 2x?

For someone buying shares right now they would get that full ride. It’s all relative to how much more premium ASST could command and how much more bitcoin they can stack to raise their 1x mNAV floor.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

It’s obviously a dead-cat bounce.

It has to be a dead-cat bounce.

Oh god, please, please make this a dead-cat bounce.

These narratives and many others are running through the minds of the bears as Bitcoin shows them that, no, the orange coin does not have to adhere to your precise definition of the four-year cycle.

This is the kind of week that almost makes you feel a little bit sorry for all the bears.

Almost.

You just know some poor BIP-110 believers were convinced that because their personal vision for Bitcoin didn’t work out, they opened up a few shorts and got absolutely slapped at the bottom.

You just know (and I’ve personally seen) crypto influencers staying sidelined and absolutely certain the bottom is still pre-programmed for October.

You love to see it.

And selfishly, I feel quite vindicated that mere hours after writing the most bullish piece that I ever have, the price ripped. It feels good, not going to lie, but instead of getting a big head and getting more confident, I want to do something else.

I want to challenge my assumptions.

I want to examine the question that’s on everyone’s mind right now.

Is this a disbelief rally?

TLDR: I think so.

https://t.co/CmnTJs9AdS

[Block1 Capital @Block1Capital]

“People that bet on 0.1% odds things over and over again those are all the broke people. Being short and bearish is a negative asymmetry mindset.

Those of us long have already made 5x 10x 20x on stuff. What is the point of pontificating on spaces all day if you never make any money it’s like performance art you’re like jerking off in front of an audience and never make any money.

Buy some good assets and stop complaining it’s really that simple”

4 minute Investor MasterClass from @mikealfred

[Mitch @MitchTX21]

@ZynxBTC Agree. It would go a long way to show they are doing the right thing.

There’s already enough hate on treasury companies. No need for things like this to remain lingering around for people to poke at.

[Mitch @MitchTX21]

@QuintenFrancois Certainly feels that way

[Mitch @MitchTX21]

@0xTimB1 @comic He is an embodiment of his name. Blocked him a long time ago.