Risk: Any reversal must reclaim the 2,879 (LH) level to shift market structure (BOS) back to bullish, otherwise, every bounce is considered a retracement into premium for further distribution.
Summary for Execution:
Draw on Liquidity: Given the Triple Top distribution and the recent Bearish Marubozu, the immediate Draw on Liquidity (DOL) is lower toward the 2,712 internal pool and potentially the 2,614 SSL.
3. Internal Range Liquidity /FVG
Expansion Gap: 2,712.49 – 2,843.35There is a significant liquidity imbalance (FVG) created during the high-volume impulse move. Price is currently penetrating this zone (Close: 2,776.36). The market is "rebalancing" this inefficient move. 2,714.00
2. Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) - External Range
Major Pool: 2,614.55 – 2,640.00This zone marks the previous structural Higher Low (HL) and a consolidation base. Retail "stop-losses" for long positions are heavily concentrated below the 2,614 swing low.
1 BSL- External Range
Major Pool: 2,935.00 – 2,960.40This is the primary BSL pool residing above the Triple Top pattern. Institutional players often view this as "engineered liquidity," where buy-stops from short-sellers are clustered.
बरु ऊल्टै बुँदा नम्बर ४५ मा “सेयर लगानी लगायत वित्तीय कारोबारको स्वचालित निगरानी र सन्देहास्पद कारोबारको अनुसन्धान” गर्ने व्यवस्था उल्लेख हुँदा बजारमा थप त्रास देखिएको पनि रहेछ!
पुराना सरकारका नीतिका कारण पहिले नै कमजोर बनेको Share Market नयाँ सरकारबाट सुधारको अपेक्षा गरिएको थियो तर १३ गतेको मन्त्रिपरिषद् बैठकबाट स्वीकृत १०० बुँदे कार्यसूचीमा Share Market सम्बन्धी एक पनि स्पष्ट कार्यक्रम नपरेपछि करिब ७५ लाख लगानीकर्ता निराश भएका रहेछन!
Technical Narrative
The NEPSE institutional narrative has shifted to a 'Risk-Off' posture following a significant 'Bull Trap' at the 2,880-2,950 level.
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A large FVG exists @ 2712-2875, price is currently in the process of filling this imbalance. Institutional distribution is evident from the highvolume bearish engulfing. We expect a Judas Swing toward 2860 to trap late sellers before a final flush into the 2750-2780 bullish OB.
From an SMC perspective, the recent peak at 2,960 served as a liquidity grab of previous highs, followed by a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) on lower timeframes. Price is now aggressively seeking Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) resting below the 2,800 psychological level.
The market is currently reacting to domestic political uncertainty regarding the new government's 100-point governance reform agenda and global geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.