Independent financial analysis of the legal cannabis industry. Acquired by Excelsior Equities By @MikeReganInvest & @SavingPlants in 2021 Not investment advice.
Senator @SenatorHick touting lame duck #SAFE, AND legislating a task force for #marijuana legalization = important LT to ensure Federal normalization momentum continues
Had CO task force 10 yrs ago too reluctantly set up Adult Use but now embraces, admits fears proved unfounded
9 years = avg length of prior FDA reviews of #marijuana#rescheduling per @ZhangMona@natsfert !
2 years would indeed be “expeditious”!
Also notes Biden said “currently available research” so review may be faster without new studies
Need >1 #cannabis store / 15k people for 75%+ licensed market share per @leafly@Whitney_Econ
Outlawing #cannabis just shifts consumption to unlicensed market
If legal stores too far & tax too high, unlicensed satisfies demand
CO=6k/store
CA=38k
IL=115k
NJ=358k!
report ⬇️
My #280E report goes into the rev & margin math vs excise taxes, & has a spreadsheet to use your own assumptions. It’s not as simple as it seems
most competitive biz see price ⬇️ & expenses ⬆️ post tax cuts
excise = more transparent & no tax on losses
https://t.co/ijdfb2zOTy
Set a reminder for the #CCBwP upcoming Space! Tomorrow will be a discussion with me and @SavingPlants talking public and private #cannabis, some fun @PoseidonInvest history and more! https://t.co/3UyfyjvXns
Congrats to my former editor @JenelJSH joining @GreenMarketRpt ! Jenel is a fantastic editor and hire for @WallandBroad . Looking forward to great reporting from the new team! Be sure to follow them if you care about #cannabisinvesting
✅Good to remove 280E which = ~12% of rev at 55% GM, so 5-12.5% of rev is tax REDUCTION for small-mid size biz, & 10% is reduction for large biz too. 25% big maybe keeps independent?
What are $ size definitions?
✅Remove cannabis from CSA
Some interstate decided by states?
2015 article on descheduling vs legislative routes for #cannabislegalization
FDA would decide based on studies, which catch-22 don’t exist bc illegal
@SavingPlants & I noted “regulatory waiting room” at FDA as risk to THC in our Nov 21 Bear Case w @patrickrea ‘s insight
Ascend $AAWH 's @AbnerKurtin just said $AAWH did $9m of sales "last week" on @MorganPaxhia@empax1@PoseidonInvest 's Closing Bell Spaces re why he's personally buying stock
$9m/wk = $117m run rate/Q
Consensus Rev est:
2Q22 $91.5m
3Q22 $112.4m
4Q22 $129.6m
My TLDR $BGXX=NOT a consumer #cannabis biz but hopes to be supplier to pharma for research IF it raises $ & executes
@suesisleymd notes “minimal” end mkt & “not a lucrative biz model”
No read through to $MSOS $PSDN $CURLF $TCNNF $GTBIF $CRLBF $VRNOF $AYRWF $AAWH $JUSHF $GLASF
Tomorrow is going to be a great, dynamic discussion. @greengiantsfund will be joining as co-host with guests @mjresearchco and @SavingPlants. Set a reminder for the #CCBwp upcoming Space! https://t.co/bs8PtaYOEY
$SAM launches #cannabis beverage TeaPot in Canada, follow-through on their 5/21 subsid & 8/21 $ETRGF partnership
While not a surprise (in $SAM 10K), it is another example of alcohol's view of cannabis growth & fear of cannibalization #EatYourOwnLunch https://t.co/zjjeq7rN11
Potential #cannabis legalization via Supreme Court to be filed by @AbnerKurtin $AAWH
Justice Thomas has already said of fed laws: “contradictory and unstable state of affairs strains basic principles of federalism”
How can a Union exist with 74% of the states breaking fed law?