Yo copper-cycle watchers, the number that stopped me was 600,000 tonnes.
Morgan Stanley now sees a 600K-tonne refined copper deficit in 2026, the largest in more than two decades. J.P. Morgan sees 330K tonnes, while the International Copper Study Group swung from a projected 209K-tonne surplus to a 150K-tonne deficit in just seven months.
That is a violent change in the supply picture.
Chile’s March output fell 9.04% YoY to 434,314 tonnes. Codelco dropped 10%, Escondida fell 15.75%, and Collahuasi declined 10.8%. At the same time, Grasberg’s full restart slipped to 2028, while Kamoa-Kakula continues dealing with recovery issues and sulfuric acid constraints.
This is why I keep $NRED / $NREDF on my screen.
NovaRed is working the discovery layer before the deficit gets even harder to solve: 16,078 hectares at Wilmac in BC, copper-gold-platinum potential, and MetalCore AI using 4.1M+ records to improve target selection.
The deficit is already showing up in institutional forecasts. The next supply still has to be found.
NFA
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Copper strength plus a clearer advisory group is why I’m still watching NRED instead of treating this as random noise
#omegle#nolimits#momson QQQ NCRA SPY EDBL
Here is the part most people will skip.
Copper is rallying even with a stronger dollar, hawkish Fed expectations and weak industrial sentiment from Middle East tensions.
That is important.
When a commodity moves higher through macro pressure, I start looking at the physical side. Bernstein pointed to reduced mine production guidance and continued U.S. stockpiling as support for tighter copper conditions.
That is why $NRED / $NREDF is still interesting to me. NovaRed is using MetalCore AI to process exploration data at Wilmac, a BC copper-gold-platinum project near Copper Mountain.
Copper supply is getting tighter. Better targeting becomes more valuable.
NFA
The $MU memory cycle is over and the bubble is popping.
At least that's what the market is pricing after a 25% crash in two weeks. There's just one problem: the "bubble" is sold out for the next two years.
Two weeks ago $MU printed one of the greatest quarters in semiconductor history: $41B in revenue, up 345% YoY, 85% margins, and guidance for $50B next quarter. The stock made new ATHs at 1259... then gave back 300 points on cycle fears.
But this isn't the old Micron; 16 take or pay contracts with binding price floors and $22B in customer deposits mean customers pay whether they take delivery or not. Management says margins at FLOOR pricing would still exceed past peak margins. Bears are trading the 2018 playbook against a company that rewrote the rules.
The chart is now backtesting the exact zone that launched the last leg. 966 was the breakout level; $MU sits just under it at 938 with monthly support at 810 below. Reclaim 966 and hold, and 1100 comes fast. Thru 1100 and the ATH retest at 1259 is in play. Break 1259 and the 1500 melt up thesis is fully alive again.
HBM4 Is the Inflection
$MU was just approved as an HBM4 supplier for $NVDA's Vera Rubin platform with shipments starting this half. HBM4 revenue already crossed $1B and the ramp is moving 2x faster than HBM3E did. Micron now sees the HBM market topping $100B by 2027 (a year earlier than projected). First wafers from its new $9.3B Japan fab came off the line on July 4, and fresh supply deals with Ford and GM keep widening the demand base.
Trade Ideas
$MU above 966
Swing Trade: MU 8/21 1500C
Day Trade: MU 7/10 1000C
The market is pricing the death of the old memory cycle. It hasn't noticed the new one has a floor under it. When it does, the reclaim will be violent.
Memory stocks are crashing in the as Samsung's revenue miss sparks a sector wide selloff.
$MU down -8%, wiping $96 billion in market cap.
$SNDK down -12%, wiping $33 billion in market cap.
$INTC down -10%, wiping $47 billion in market cap.
$WDC down -10%, wiping $5.5 billion in market cap.
Samsung reported a $58 billion quarterly profit, a 19-fold jump from a year ago, the largest single quarter profit any tech company has ever reported.
But revenue missed estimates, coming in at 171 trillion won against the 173.9 trillion won the market expected.
Samsung fell 7%. That selling has now spread to every memory stock in the US market.
$META is a $2000 stock trading at $600
$TSLA is a $100 stock trading at $420
$SNDK is a $600 stock trading at $1700
$PLTR is a $200 stock trading at $116
$MU is a $500 stock trading at $1000
$AMZN is a $500 stock trading at $240
$NOW is a $300 stock trading at $110
THIS IS THE MOVE I WAS WAITING FOR.
NREDF is already showing life at $0.6200, up +8.56%, and the timing is beautiful: MetalCore early-access closes in 48 hours.
920 users already registered.
Only 80 spots left out of 1,000.
That is why I kept saying this update matters. NRED is not just another junior mining name to me anymore. MetalCore gives it AI platform traction, 4.1M+ records, and now the chart is waking up.
I’m holding my thesis and watching that $1 magnet today.
NFA