Tayyib Demiroğlu

Turkish-German 🇩🇪🇪🇺🇹🇷 | Finance executive | private account, views are my own

[Tayyib Demiroğlu @MK_Demiroglu]

The biggest flaw in #Germany's 1 trillion spending debate: Treating it as a one-time fix. Spending a trillion won’t magically save us.

It’s the same flawed logic as *just* spending €100B to modernize the #Bundeswehr. Did that one-time fix get us where we needed to be?

[Tayyib Demiroğlu @MK_Demiroglu]

“Oh, there is an ally with a military as large as France + Germany combined, which already discussed own peacekeeping troops with both Ukraine & Russia? Hold my coffee…”

[asli aydintasbas @asliaydintasbas]

The moment in history when Europe remembers Turkey…😂

[Tayyib Demiroğlu @MK_Demiroglu]

Historic moment in #Turkey despite upcoming challenges: #PKK leader Öcalan calls PKK to disarm/dissolve.

#PYD leader Muslim in #Syria seems to agree - with many 'if's.

Some background (excl. potential DEM support for lifting Erdoğan’s term limit) 👇

https://t.co/ZXVurbLiVB

[Tayyib Demiroğlu @MK_Demiroglu]

Would be smart to include this in fiscal policy scenarios during #CDU-#SPD coalition negotiations in #Germany.

[Julian Hinz @julianhinz]

🚨 KITE Insta-Analysis: Trump has announced his intention to put 25% tariffs on all EU goods. The impact would be significant for the EU, but the US would also face major costs—especially if the EU retaliates. 1/5

[Tayyib Demiroğlu @MK_Demiroglu]

What we often forget in #Germany: Our GDP growth could be much higher - if we didn’t hate foreigners.

“A robustly social democratic approach to economic renewal, & a recognition of what migrants can offer ageing societies, remains the best response to the rise of nationalists.”

[Nick Ashdown @Nick_Ashdown]

"Last year, Spain recorded the highest growth of any major country, at 3.2%. This was achieved under a Socialist-led coalition government that has welcomed high levels of immigration as a driver of economic prosperity."
https://t.co/5qAh25dPrx

[Danyal Bayaz @DerDanyal]

Seit Monaten ist klar, dass im neuen Bundestag die notwendige Mehrheit für ein weiteres in der Verfassung abgesichertes #Sondervermögen für unsere Bundeswehr fehlen könnte. Und spätestens nach der Rede des amerikanischen Vizepräsidenten bei Sicherheitskonferenz hätte jedem … 1/n

[Tayyib Demiroğlu @MK_Demiroglu]

"For Ankara, #Ukraine isn't an isolated conflict. It's part of a broader geopolitical contest with Moscow. From the Med to the Caspian, #Turkey isn't just engaging in force projection, it's executing a strategic realignment, disrupting #Russia’s calculus." https://t.co/VtlPWzli4m

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Zelensky says Turkey is a key security guarantor for Ukraine.

“When it comes to security guarantees, I told my partners—we must rely on Turkey and President Erdogan. Why?

Because what truly matters is who is ready to commit real numbers—actual troops, military ships.”

[Tayyib Demiroğlu @MK_Demiroglu]

@Alex_J_Thiele Warum ist es nicht realistisch? Politisch oder rechtlich?

[Tayyib Demiroğlu @MK_Demiroglu]

Es reicht nicht, GG 87a auf 300 Mrd€ aufzustocken. Wir erleben einen Epochenbruch während Rentenzuschüsse den B-Haushalt lähmen.

Demokratische Resilienz braucht finanzpolitische Flexibilität. Flexibilität ist das wichtigste Gut für robuste Strategien unter hoher Unsicherheit.

[Alexander Thiele @Alex_J_Thiele]

Realistisch ist in der Kürze der Zeit allein eine Reform des Art. 87a durch Erhöhung der 100 Mrd. Auf 300 oder so, wie gestern vorgeschlagen...@_FriedrichMerz @fbanaszak @spdde

[Tayyib Demiroğlu @MK_Demiroglu]

Natürlich war es ein historischer Fehler von Merz die Schuldenbremse nicht vor der Wahl zu reformieren.

ABER: Wir müssen jetzt sehr pragmatisch sein. Es könnte sein, dass wir gestern die letzte demokratische BReg in DE gewählt haben. Sie darf finanzpolitisch nicht gelähmt sein.

[Jens Südekum @jsuedekum]

Der alte BT hatte monatelang Zeit, diese Reform durchzusetzen. Warum hat er es dann nicht getan?

Wie kann er es jetzt tun, obwohl ein neues Wahlergebnis vorliegt, wo es für eine bestimmte Reform ggf. gar keine Mehrheit mehr gibt?

[Tayyib Demiroğlu @MK_Demiroglu]

The price we, as #Germany, have to pay for Chancellor #Scholz’s in- and late action in equipping #Ukraine is rising by the day. We once talked about ammunition, tanks, & missiles. Now, we’re talking about German sons in the trenches w/o sufficient support against Russian forces.

[Michael Kofman @KofmanMichael]

Brief thoughts on a European force for Ukraine. I think there is a degree of requirements paralysis. It doesn’t have to be hundreds of thousands of troops, or cover a 1200km contact line. Where it is deployed, and in what role, is more important than the overall size. 1/

[Hanno Lustig @HannoLustig]

When discount rates applied to future cash flows decrease, the value of these assets increases, especially for assets with payoffs that accrue in the distant future (high duration assets like stock in tech companies). The very rich hold more of these assets than everyone else. So their fraction of total wealth will increase when discount rates decrease.

[Tayyib Demiroğlu @MK_Demiroglu]

For the first time since 1945 (!), the #CDU enabled an anti-democratic majority in parliament with the #AfD. Once again, German conservatives believe they can contain the far right through cooperation.

Last time they tried, they named Adolf Hitler Chancellor on January 30, 1933.

[Annette Dittert  @annettedittert]

So at least German voters do know this now before the election: In case of doubt, Friedrich Merz is prepared to form majorities with the extreme right

A historic taboo has been broken in Germany today. On the day the Bundestag was supposed to remember the Holocaust.

[Olivier Blanchard @ojblanchard1]

DeepSeek and what happened yesterday: Probably the largest positive tfp shock in the history of the world.

[Tayyib Demiroğlu @MK_Demiroglu]

Stunning move by @BMF_Bund to fund #Germany’s three rocket builder startups with almost €100M. Money well invested into our competitiveness & security. Responsive space capabilities are essentials for sovereignty 2022+. Looking forward to @isaraerospace & RFA’s launches.

[Andrew Parsonson @AndrewParsonson]

The German government has committed €95 million in additional funding to support Isar Aerospace, Rocket Factory Augsburg, and HyImpulse.
https://t.co/6B3TYYovP9

[Tayyib Demiroğlu @MK_Demiroglu]

Agree, the serendipity of the Aleppo-to-Damascus offensive is overshadowing the structural efforts of the Turkish intel & MFA over years to improve their stance in #Syria. I could imagine we underestimate how much Fidan-Kalin’s strategy for Syria enabled the current developments.

[Soner Cagaptay @SonerCagaptay]

In hindsight, Ankara's October move to disarm the PKK (which at the time looked like domestic baseball) appears predicated on Trump's November victory, and HTS' December attack on Assad, allowing Turkey to rely on HTS and de-PKK-fied SDF to stabilize Syria post-U.S. departure

[Isabella M Weber @IsabellaMWeber]

The German election, too, will be decided over the economy.

[Tayyib Demiroğlu @MK_Demiroglu]

Indeed, surprising that #Russia evacuated its key bases in #Syria without resistance, as its military power and the fragile situation would have deterred any direct attacks on those installations.

[Akin Unver @AkinUnver]

Letting go of Ukraine at a greater scale than we think implies Crimea, and it is the worst possible news for Turkey - one that can only be compensated by PKK no longer being a problem in Syria or Iraq, implying complete transition to politics and full disarmament.

[Kristian Brakel @KristianBrakel]

@cem_oezdemir Ich finde, es stünde den Deutschen und co gut an, zu dieser Stunde den Syrern ihr Glück über ihren Sieg über eine der schlimmsten Diktatur zu gönnen und mit ihnen zu feiern, als über ein Morgen zu spekulieren, was keiner kennt!