Bubble Trades

22. Not Financial Advise. DYODD. AI Infrastructure.

[Bubble Trades @mkt_order]

😂😂😂😂😂

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: A total of 911,500,000 shares of SpaceX, $SPCX, held by employees and early investors, become eligible to trade tomorrow.

That's ~43% more than the 638,900,000 shares issued at IPO.

SpaceX's free float is set to increase from 4.9% to 11.8% of outstanding shares.

[P Equity Research 📰 @pequityresearch]

GF Securities: Optical

> Strong Demand Projections: Total demand for 800G/1.6T is expected to reach 80 million units each in 2027, driven by ramping accelerator demand from Nvidia, Google, AWS, and other ASICs, as well as rising GPU/ASIC scale-out bandwidth and optical module ratios.

> CPO/NPO Adoption Timelines: CPO and NPO are being developed side-by-side in next-gen infrastructure, with CPO acting as the long-term design for lower power and latency, while NPO offers better short-term manufacturability and deployment flexibility starting around 2H27.

> Nvidia Architecture Shifts: Each Rubin GPU is equipped with two CX9 NIC chips (doubling scale-out bandwidth versus Blackwell), and Rubin Ultra is estimated to adopt four CX9 chips per GPU, shifting the 1.6T optical module ratio from 1:2.5 up to 1:5.

> Google's Scale-Up and Scale-Out Transition: Google is expected to fully transition to large-scale clusters in 2026 where the scale-up layer adopts optical interconnects, resulting in an overall TPU-to-optics ratio of approximately 1:4 (1.6T equivalent).

> Supply Chain and Component Value Impacts: NPO shifts signal conditioning to system designs, lifting the value of TIAs and laser drivers to tens of dollars per 3.2T optical engine, benefiting supply chain players like Marvell and SMTC.

$AAOI $MRVL $COHR $LITE $GOOGL $NVDA

[Bubble Trades @mkt_order]

U.S looking to ban all imports of new Chinese optical transceivers.

If this holds its massive for $AAOI as it's no longer competing for share in a growing optical market. It may soon be competing in a market where its largest chinese rivals are restricted from selling products to U.S hyperscalers.

Removing Innolight would force hyperscalers to secure deals with more Western suppliers.

For a vertically integrated U.S manufacturer who is a already expanding capacity this is a big announcement.

The open question is whether Western suppliers can actually absorb that demand while already struggling to ramp capacity.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

A very material catalyst came about for Western supply chains from $AAOI, $SIVE / Jabil, to $LITE and Coherent:

The Trump administration is drafting a ban of new Chinese optical transceivers and DC devices.

Which would likely hit China’s Innolight, Eoptolink, and other Chinese optical interconnect supply chains.

"The agency would ban all imports of new transceiver models ​and then exempt many ⁠non-Chinese suppliers from the restrictions"

We'll likely see a larger bifurcation of supply chains with even greater importance put on Western players.

[P Equity Research 📰 @pequityresearch]

According to one source, the global InP wafer shortage is 70%.

This is leading to a shortage in EML. It's worse considering the effective yield drops from essentially 90% to 40% from wafer to end product.

[retardedinvestor @retard3dinvst0r]

Mental retardation allows one to have unwavering conviction in the face of extreme adversity.

Never underestimate a retarded investor.

$AAOI $AAOX

[BULL OF BRITAIN @BULLOFBRITAIN]

Insider trading is legal and buyable.

The American Dream.

[Michael, CPA @MikeTheTrader]

ROBINHOOD SOCIAL CANT BE REAL 😭

[retardedinvestor @retard3dinvst0r]

Retarded Investments LLC > Situational Awareness LP

[Bubble Trades @mkt_order]

@kevinxu $AAOI

[BULL OF BRITAIN @BULLOFBRITAIN]

$BE pumping 26% the day after margin calling Leopold, you cant make it up! 😂

[Michael Sikand @michaelsikand]

ONE OF US.

[Michael Sikand @michaelsikand]

The entire bottle was ours for the taking.

But we were too focused on the neck.

[P Equity Research 📰 @pequityresearch]

Look into 3 different areas of the AI trade - accelerators, ABF substrate, and InP. Read to find out about the pricing, supply/demand, shipments, and my personal view. https://t.co/8T1CQLsK5A

[P Equity Research 📰 @pequityresearch]

CXMT is up 454%!!! Insane...

[Bubble Trades @mkt_order]

@DonAlt Most predictable move ever.

Shouldn’t come as a surprise.

[Bubble Trades @mkt_order]

@naeteyy Sub to Ticino trader it’s $4 and almost unlimited charts.

[Bubble Trades @mkt_order]

@yaseeen76 Amazing stuff dude.