🚨 Why are crypto ponzis always related to new stablecoins? A long post.
▫️ Buy 1 ETH for $3,000
▫️ Stake ETH into stETH
▫️ Turn stETH into wstETH
▫️ Use wstETH to mint mkUSD
▫️ Use mkUSD to borrow more ETH
▫️ Stake ETH into stETH...
This is how you create magic money and turn 3k into 30k. You double, triple, quadruple count the same collateral aka leverage it.
DeFi's total market cap pumps dozens of billions overnight in a bull market and also crashes 90% in a bear market because of it.
It's all FAKE money.
You create more "money" from nothing and stablecoins are a key ingredient in that recipe. They allow you to leverage up, fast.
This is no different than fractional reserve banking where your $3,000 bank deposit turns into $29,999 new money created from thin air.
To achieve such a feat, it takes 100 cycles of deposits. See my picture.
Crypto never reaches 100 cycles, because the bubble bursts sooner rather than later.
Fiat "economists" even call this process a "business cycle". A more appropriate name is a bubble driven by ponzinomics and irresponsible money creation due to greed.
If you read crypto twitter, you will see people talk about liquid staked tokens (LST like stETH) and liquid re-staking tokens (LRTs like reETH) as the next best thing in crypto since sliced bread.
WRONG.
It's the next big bubble or ponzi. EigenLayer should not excite you, it should WORRY you!
If you seek an alternative view, then hit a follow @duonine to stay updated as this bubble develops.
Once you start seeing this "amazing" new LRT token being used to mint stablecoins on your X feed know that the bubble is about to reach its peak.
The higher the market cap of those new shinny stablecoins backed by LRTs tokens, the bigger the bubble.
Remember, $3,000 is the actual collateral for $30,000! That's a 10x leverage.
If ETH is 3k and it crashes by 10% or $300, the bubble deflates by 3k! That's 3k gone in your new shiny LRT stablecoin!
Such stablecoins will go to zero in the worst case scenario. This is how a liquidation cascade starts and panic begins.
Why does this concern me?
Because it will hurt native ETH holders that don't even stake their ETH. Picture this.
Let's say the LRT bubble grows to $50 billion. Actual backing? $5 billion in ETH or even less.
How exactly can $50 billion exit or sell at a profit using $5 billion of ETH collateral?
It can't.
What happens next is people get wiped out. LST and LRT tokens crash vs ETH's price by 10%, 50% or more. Any stables backed by LST/LRT tokens depeg and crash even more.
In the process, as $50 billion of fake money wants to exit, it will drag down ETH's price beyond a normal correction or crash. ETH is the liquidity of last resort for LST/LRT tokens.
Worse. It will drag down BTC's price as well. Because people will become DESPERATE to exit at ALL costs, even if they lose 50% of their money or more. BTC is the liquidity of last resort in crypto, just like the Fed for USD.
This is why bear markets are BRUTAL. They correct such imbalances. They are necessary and do well to punish such greed.
Don't believe me?
Have you heard of Blast L2? That's an ENTIRE network that will use LST tokens and stablecoins backed by LSTs to give its users "native yield".
Those users have no idea what's coming in the next two years and they deposited BILLIONS on Blast L2.
Projects always seek to create more yield to attract users, but that comes at the risk of an entire network like Blast going insolvent if they don't control their greed.
Do you trust them to put breaks on making free money?
In the last crypto cycle, Terra Luna UST imploded to 0 from $50 billion. It also used a stablecoin for their project. It double, triple, quadruple counted the same money while pretending it was real. Greed took over.
You need to EXIT early and well before that $5 billion in real collateral is gone. Cash out and don't ape back. That includes removing all assets from networks like Blast L2.
You are only safe on NATIVE chains like ETH or BTC.
This time, the bubble will use ETH LRTs and associated stablecoins. I'm concerned and few people will write about this because it puts a break on this bubble and greed.
I've seen too many crypto cycles repeat the same story. This is nothing new. At the end of the day, crypto is a free for all. There's no regulation, but at least we can educate.
Why risk your ETH for 3-6% yield when ETH will 2-5X this cycle?
Funny enough, this LST/LRT bubble will also be the reason ETH will pump hard because all those tokens will LOCK-UP ETH as collateral in a huge pyramid.
When Vitalik decided to take Ethereum from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake he enabled and allowed the creation of such ponzimonic mechanisms.
For this reason alone, Bitcoin is superior.
Don't be fooled by this market and don't let greed take over. It ends badly.
Hit a like and retweet this message to wake up more people and don't forget to follow me @duonine
P.S. I respect anyone building in this space and any examples or tokens mentioned above are used for illustration purposes only. What will eventually happen, we will all find out, but let's call it as it is.
Just joined the race for the $10,000 #zkEVM Saga Finale reward pool! Feeling the heat already! :fire: :fire:
All fellow #polygon zkEVM questers..assemble! https://t.co/zeZcd19SKz
Komu airdrop na weekend rączka w górę! 😎
🔥💎Jedziemy z tematem i odbieramy $WEN na #Solana
Czas na odebranie darmowego sianka mamy do 29 stycznia do 4.00!
Sprawdzajcie portfele i ładujcie walizki
Obecna wartość dropa to ok 40$
$WEN token społecznościowy, zarządzany będzie przez zespół #Ovols
💪Zostaw serce i podaj dalej dobre informacje
New day, new feature for $COMAI @communeaidotorg
Bridge to ETH is Live!
Bridge link: https://t.co/Xa8Krg7ctz
Liquidity Uniswap V3 pair: https://t.co/UeN9zUoHXp
Token address: 0xc78b628b060258300218740b1a7a5b3c82b3bd9f
🫡🫡🫡
@PatrykOsak @kyudo_krypto@MantaNetwork Rzeczywiście jakaś furtka jest. Trzeba się teraz zastanowić co będzie bardziej opłacalne, bo na obecną chwilę jest ponad 70 tys. userów. Za 2 tyg. będzie pewnie ze 150 tys. i zaraz się właśnie okaże, że ten airdop będzie warty tyle co 10% straty 😆
Roadmap 2023-December! 🚀
-MEXC Listing funding
-Expand the Dev Team
-Expand the Comm Team
-Wallet-CLI ✅
-Desktop Wallet KDX-Light
-KGI Graph Inspector
-Karlsen Faucet
Based on statistical models and predictive #AI models my data team came up with the following price targets within 6 months IF bull market takes off
$TAO 5200
$KOIN 46
$KAS 1.4
$AVAX 230
$SOL 220
$BTC 230000
$LINK 58
$ORDI 330
I’m not a trader and don’t do “predictions”. These targets were completed by scientifically sound models and rounded. #NFA manage your risk
You may ask yourself, why was there more $TAO on exchanges in the $50 range then there is now?!
It’s Game Theory.
Last I read, cost to mine Bittensor is between $26-50 per $TAO depending on your skill level. It gets harder over time, but this is one of two important catalysts:
The higher the price, the less miners need to sell to cover overhead. Simple.
Then comes the second catalyst, subnets…
To register a subnet, developers must lock their TAO. Registration difficulty rises with time. TAO is distributed across the subnets depending on the amount of miners and validator stake deployed.
Now for the game theory!
As more and more subnets get added, the distribution of TAO gets diluted. This means mining overhead will rise as mining becomes harder but now validators need more stake, to compete across subnets. Validators get a cut 18% of tokens emissions from $TAO dedicated to that validator. They must compete with each other for your stake!
There can be a validator using its entire stake on one subnet, or there can be validators staking across multiple subnets. Each subnet will split revenue across validators on it and the validators with the most stake & highest consensus will earn the most.
Now validators that are across multiple subnets must stake more to keep up with the highest performing validators on each subnet.
Though difficulty of mining rises, so does the demand of tokens since validators are competing to earn more $TAO, it becomes a self balancing equilibrium.
Currently miners have the advantage, as difficulty is low compared to overhead but the smart ones, they understand that won’t be the case forever, therefor they are holding onto their tokens.
Confused yet ?!🤪Well there’s more!!
In comes monetization, a future catalyst:
Right now products built on Bittensor are free, however, you can safely assume that won’t alway be the case.
As user base increases, so will overhead for validators to run their products on the network. Some will decide that earning $TAO is enough and will sell some to cover costs while others will factor in the future value of $TAO and choose to charge for using their products.
But fear not, once validators start charging fiat, crypto or TAO for products developed on Bittensor, price of $TAO should surge even higher!
When there’s monetization, validators must keep the same quality of service and will need to buy more $TAO to compete against other validators to retain customers. As more customers use a validators products, that validator MUST stake more $TAO to be able to query the network effectively and keep up with demand!
This is when you’ll start to hear rumblings of corporations like @MSFTResearch , @AIatMeta , @GoogleAI , @IBMData and @amazon buying up $TAO to enable them to validate to earn off products and simultaneously use their models on the network to mine it themselves.
It’s inevitable, and it would be lost opportunity cost not to do it. They’re already charging people, but now they’ll be able to charge people AND mine TAO!
If you understand what I just explained you know this is bigger than all of those companies combined. They will be competing for Fiat & TAO right on the @bittensor_ network, against the rest of the world.
Bittensor is the battlefield and $TAO is the prize!
So , for those looking at recent price action maybe wondering, Even questioning your decision, just imagine an angelic baby Bond Connery with wings above your shoulder yelling in your ear:
‘YES you are still really fucking early!!’