Adobe remains a compelling high-quality compounder with AI fueling real (if gradual) growth and margin gains in a durable subscription model, massive ongoing buybacks yielding 8-9% to shareholders, and elite ROIC, but the market is overly pessimistic on competitive threats and underappreciating the resilient execution and cash generation that position it for recovery and outperformance.
@LeoNelissen After 2008’s net short extreme, WTI bottomed and rocketed higher on forced covering. Today’s setup screams “oversold”—history suggests a bounce is likely. Elliott Waves sees WTI at 85 in 2026.
In 1850, Switzerland 🇨🇭 introduced the franc, defined by silver (later tied to gold through the Latin Monetary Union). Back then, about 5 francs = 1 USD.
Today: 1 CHF ≈ 0.80 USD.
If the old gold definition still applied today, 1 CHF ≈ $35.50 USD.
What changed? Switzerland left metal backing step by step: bimetallism in the 19th century, devaluation in 1936, and the end of the 40% gold reserve rule in 2000. The US dollar also left gold in 1971.
In over a decade, $ADBE's NTM FCF yield has only exceeded 6% twice. The first time was in late 2022, when the stock dropped to $280, followed by a rebound to over $600 within two years.
Now, Adobe is showing the same pattern again, suggesting strong potential for outsized returns if market sentiment or forward guidance improves.
Hey @ChrisWMayer, are you still involved with Evolution Gaming AB? 👀 Noticed CEO Martin Carlesund and other insiders buying shares recently. I’d really value your perspective! 🧐😎
Horizon Kinetics on San Juan Basin Royalty Trust $SJT US
Thesis: San Juan Basin Royalty Trust is undervalued due to its current lack of distributions, but potential significant production growth and favorable market conditions could lead to lucrative returns for patient investors.
(Extract from their Q1'25 letter)