Oxford researchers argue that LLMs can never invent anything.
It is mathematically impossible.
They published a paper called “Theory Is All You Need" and it argues against the claim that computational models can generate genuine novelty or new knowledge.
They analyzed the limits of generative ai, and the results are a brutal reality check for the idea that ai will replace human decision making under uncertainty.
Here is why AI is stuck and human cognition wins:
backward-looking vs forward-looking.. llms are probability machines that look backward at existing data. human cognition is forward-looking and capable of generating genuine novelty. human cognition operates theoretically "top-down" rather than "bottom-up" from data.
the "data-belief asymmetry".. the researchers use the invention of "heavier-than-air flight" to illustrate this concept. an ai relies on data-based prediction, which is largely imitative. humans, however, use theory-based causal logic that allows them to hold beliefs that go beyond existing data.
the intervention gap.. humans don't just process information; we use theory to practically "intervene" in the world. we engage in directed experimentation to generate entirely new data. ai-based models are theory-free and place primacy on existing data and prediction.
tldr?
AI uses a probability-based approach to knowledge and ia largely imitative. It can process data and make predictions, but human cognition relies on theory-based causal reasoning.
The decades-old analogy comparing human minds and computers to mere "input-output" devices is fundamentally flawed.
China has won the AI race by a wide margin. The AI bubble has burst.
Yesterday, all AI bosses agreed to slow the pace of development and want the government to help.
Why? Because China announced a super mega giga data center in Inner Mongolia.
It is 1,000 times larger than Elon Musk’s Colossus data center in Memphis, TE, which he describes as the world’s largest AI supercomputer.
American AI companies cannot compete. They could find a place big enough to build it, but they do not have enough chips. Even if the chips were made in China, they would not have the electricity to run it. They would have to build several nuclear power stations. That takes time.
China can do it in Ulanqab. And they are quite advanced.
Now it is clear why the Chinese gave away their AI weights for free, so anyone can install AI in the basement at no cost.
China will not compete in producing the best AI (weights). They leave that to the open community—the best independent AI people around the world.
As I reported a few days ago, China is competing in the business of running AI by providing the data centers.
They have won by a wide margin with open-weight technology, and the world is a winner. We get cheap AI that does not kill mankind.
You had better sell your AI shares.
INSTEAD OF WATCHING NETFLIX TONIGHT. Spend 2 hours with this. Claude AI FULL COURSE that teaches you how to BUILD and AUTOMATE anything. The people who watch this tonight will wake up tomorrow with a new skill. Watch it and bookmark it now.