MoatBull

Every bull case, stress-tested. Stock analyses, macro news and deep dives, with both sides shown. Not financial advice

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

Hi,

Most stock content tells you why something will go up. Very little of it tells you what would prove that wrong. MoatBull is my attempt to do both.

What you'll find here:

- Stock analyses: what a company earns, how it earns it, and how long that can last
- Macro news: the releases that move markets, number first, context after
- Deep dives: long threads on one company or one industry
- Charts and statistics: drawn to scale, one idea per chart
- Stock comparisons: two or three companies on the same measures
- Bull vs bear: the strongest case on each side, next to each other

How I work:

1. Every number has a named primary source: filings, earnings releases, central banks, statistics offices. I link it in the post or the first reply.
2. Estimates from others are credited to whoever made them.
3. If I own a stock I write about, I say so, on the card and in the post.
4. Every bull case comes with what would make it wrong.
5. No buy or sell calls and no price targets. This is analysis, not financial advice. The decisions are yours.

The rhythm:

On earnings day, a scorecard with the numbers that matter. The day after, the bull and the bear case. Every week, a look-ahead at the dates and catalysts worth watching.

Why "MoatBull"? I like businesses with a moat: a lasting edge that competitors struggle to copy. But the moment you like a business is exactly when you should test it hardest. Hence the line on every card: every bull case, stress-tested.

To start, one question for you: which company should I stress-test first? The most-requested stock in the replies gets the first deep dive.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@KyleReidhead a nationwide shutdown seems unlikely. but local permit freezes can still delay billions in investment. AI demand won't disappear, though where that money gets spent could change quite a bit.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@danielisdizzy Worth looking at the financing side too. $AVGO's own filings mention backing some customer leases for AI deployments. They're getting involved in more than just designing the chips.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@RealNickMugalli One small distinction on the AGI CPU: Arm expects up to $2bn in revenue across FY27–28. That's a forecast, not $2bn+ in disclosed orders. Still a big shift for $ARM.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@LeifInvests And $VST already has 94% of its 2027 generation hedged. Pretty wild to see this kind of selloff when so much of next year's output is already covered.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@tradfi the guys from citrini once again try to cause fear and negative sentiment. Peak AI capex is a pretty bold call. Higher costs could slow construction, sure. But delays and an actual peak in spending are two very different things.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@AndreasSteno oh yes i remember citrini and 'the 2028 global intelligence crisis', these are the guys you should take serious right? according to them in about 1-2 years we will have a massive recession cause by AI. and now they say the peak is reached. are u kidding me?!😂

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

sources:
TCEQ term to 31 Aug 2027: https://t.co/NxUce7sA7d
Abbott's permit pause (Texas Tribune): https://t.co/1WbDVtLKoQ
474 GW queue (Utility Dive): https://t.co/dRSmxPQoce
Senate stays Republican (AP via Fox 7): https://t.co/YNfFJqdSt9

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

AI stocks sold off on one headline. Texas elected a governor who campaigned for a data-center moratorium.

How power works in Texas says that fear is too big. Permits sit with TCEQ: three commissioners on staggered six-year terms, all appointed by Abbott. Gina Hinojosa's first seat opens on 31 August 2027, and her picks need two-thirds of a state Senate where Republicans keep the majority. A moratorium law would need that same Senate.

Grid hookups run through PUCT and ERCOT, which are also staggered and set in statute. A governor gets influence there, not command.

The irony is that the pause markets fear already exists. Abbott, a Republican, froze new ERCOT hookups and TCEQ permits in August and September until an audit is done. With 474 GW of requests in ERCOT's queue, about 90% of them data centers, none of that was getting connected quickly anyway.

So the risk isn't a ban. It's how long the pause lasts, and from January that's Hinojosa's call. Democrats also won the lieutenant governor's race, which gives them two of the three appointments to the committee that picks ERCOT's board.

Is the market pricing a ban that can't happen, or a delay that can?

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@pdicarlotrader technically everything is possible. sentiment regarding the AI trade is at one of the lowest points this year. imo the stock will rebound hard. if we talk about moat this company is one of a kind

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@pdicarlotrader Peter, for this to happen would be super wild. The PE is already extremely low, company is growing fast with massive free cash flow and triple digit revenue growh. fundamentals of this company looking good. So clearly i don't expect this to happen.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@Raj_Invests Imagine going to bed with Nasdaq futures down 2.4% and waking up green 😂 Pretty good reminder not to trust the market's first reaction.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

On Monday, Kalshi had a Democratic sweep at 71%. Last night it happened, and Nasdaq futures still fell 2.4%.

By 3 a.m. New York time, S&P and Nasdaq futures were both back above Tuesday's close. A clean V.

A drop that big on an outcome the market rated 71% tells me it wasn't about the result itself. It was about what the result means for AI. Amundi's Aidan Yao called this vote "more like a referendum on AI than a referendum on Trump."

What the sweep changes for markets is narrower than the headlines suggest. Trump keeps his veto, so no tariff or tax cut gets undone without two-thirds of both chambers. What Democrats gain is subpoenas in the House and a vote on every judge and Fed governor in the Senate. With the Nasdaq-100 already in a correction since Monday, oversight of AI spending is the part I'd watch.

The V says the market forgave the vote. Did it forgive the AI risk too, or is that the next leg?

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@KGInvests_ People buying $KO aren't necessarily betting against AI. Some are probably just tired of watching their portfolios drop 8% every time someone posts a headline 😂

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

sources:
AMD Q3 2026 (https://t.co/mgKd14ki3o): https://t.co/Aqlm0OFuC6
Nvidia Q2 FY27 (https://t.co/mgKd14ki3o): https://t.co/KVqwHC7UVJ
forward P/E + 2027 outlook (LSEG via Reuters): https://t.co/ceG2WHWJDJ
note: AMD's quarter runs to September, Nvidia's to July

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

$AMD vs $NVDA. One is growing at less than half the pace of the other, and it's the one with the higher multiple.

AMD's revenue grew 45% last quarter. Nvidia's grew 106%. Yet AMD trades at about 31 times forward earnings and Nvidia at 14, according to LSEG.

AMD's answer is the guide. Q4 is guided at about $17B, up 66% on a year ago, and Lisa Su expects revenue to grow more than 80% in 2027. If that happens, the gap closes fast.

The market didn't fully buy it today. AMD was up 7% before the open and had given almost all of it back by midday, mainly because of the negative datacenter sentiment.

Nvidia reports on Nov 17 with $108B guided. That's the other half of this trade.

Would you rather pay 31x for the challenger that's accelerating, or 14x for the leader?

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@oguzerkan And $BKNG literally flagged expensive flights and Middle East disruptions as headwinds in yesterday's earnings. If those start easing, could be a pretty nice tailwind for bookings.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@amitisinvesting Cheaper oil would be a huge relief. And if it takes pressure off bond yields too, that could give the market some much needed breathing room.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@KGInvests_ Feels like everyone's just dumping the AI trade as one big basket. $AMD nearly doubled its data center revenue and still gets caught in the selling. Crazy. But this is what rotation looks like

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@StockMarketNerd True for most businesses. But for companies relying heavily on subsidies or permits, politics can change the economics pretty fast. That's a risk investors can't just ignore.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@pepemoonboy Who needs earnings reports anymore when a random geopolitical rumor can wipe out your weekly gains before breakfast 😂

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@KGInvests_ That 72% EPS miss is misleading. You're comparing GAAP EPS with what looks like an adjusted EPS estimate. Uber actually reported $0.88 adjusted EPS, up 35% YoY. Quite a different story.