MoatBull

Every bull case, stress-tested. Stock analyses, macro news and deep dives, with both sides shown. Not financial advice

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

Hi,

Most stock content tells you why something will go up. Very little of it tells you what would prove that wrong. MoatBull is my attempt to do both.

What you'll find here:

- Stock analyses: what a company earns, how it earns it, and how long that can last
- Macro news: the releases that move markets, number first, context after
- Deep dives: long threads on one company or one industry
- Charts and statistics: drawn to scale, one idea per chart
- Stock comparisons: two or three companies on the same measures
- Bull vs bear: the strongest case on each side, next to each other

How I work:

1. Every number has a named primary source: filings, earnings releases, central banks, statistics offices. I link it in the post or the first reply.
2. Estimates from others are credited to whoever made them.
3. If I own a stock I write about, I say so, on the card and in the post.
4. Every bull case comes with what would make it wrong.
5. No buy or sell calls and no price targets. This is analysis, not financial advice. The decisions are yours.

The rhythm:

On earnings day, a scorecard with the numbers that matter. The day after, the bull and the bear case. Every week, a look-ahead at the dates and catalysts worth watching.

Why "MoatBull"? I like businesses with a moat: a lasting edge that competitors struggle to copy. But the moment you like a business is exactly when you should test it hardest. Hence the line on every card: every bull case, stress-tested.

To start, one question for you: which company should I stress-test first? The most-requested stock in the replies gets the first deep dive.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@slava_invests down over 7%? it's just lost the after market pump due to the wild post mid-term swings. earnings report was great, but macro environment can kill sentiment very fast

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@StockSavvyShay And $NBIS already broke ground on its big Missouri campus. If competitors get stuck waiting on Texas permits, Nebius could end up in a pretty good position.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@StockSavvyShay The demand is still there sure. But if you're waiting on permits while your customers are waiting on GPUs, delays can get expensive pretty quickly.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@DivesTech Texas was already freezing data center permits under Abbott back in September. Feels a bit too easy to blame the election for all this.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@jzrdan Yeah I get that. The pipeline looks promising but management needs to start delivering consistently again. One good quarter won't rebuild investor confidence overnight.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@BrightLabsMedia Haha, and in this AI trade a healthy balance sheet probably helps with that last part 😂

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

Almost every company in the AI chain said the same thing this earnings season. Demand is bigger than supply.

$ASML says its planned capacity for 2027 and 2028 won't fully meet customer demand, and some customers already want to order for 2029 and 2030. Amazon's Andy Jassy says AWS capacity is committed for "a good chunk of 2028". Microsoft's CFO said demand still exceeds supply.

Now look at who's paying for it. Alphabet had negative free cash flow of $9.1B last quarter. Amazon is $42.4B negative over the last 12 months. Nvidia's receivables jumped $22B in a single quarter.

That's a strong demand story. It's also what the top of a capex cycle has looked like before, when buyers stretch their balance sheets to secure capacity.

When everyone in a supply chain says demand exceeds supply, is that a moat or a peak?

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

sources:
futures moves + Amundi quote (Reuters): https://t.co/liCkrJpaMR
sweep odds on Monday (Kalshi): https://t.co/JzX6RXcEDR
what each chamber can and can't change: our card from Monday

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

On Monday, Kalshi had a Democratic sweep at 71%. Last night it happened, and Nasdaq futures still fell 2.4%.

By 3 a.m. New York time, S&P and Nasdaq futures were both back above Tuesday's close. A clean V.

A drop that big on an outcome the market rated 71% tells me it wasn't about the result itself. It was about what the result means for AI. Amundi's Aidan Yao called this vote "more like a referendum on AI than a referendum on Trump."

What the sweep changes for markets is narrower than the headlines suggest. Trump keeps his veto, so no tariff or tax cut gets undone without two-thirds of both chambers. What Democrats gain is subpoenas in the House and a vote on every judge and Fed governor in the Senate. With the Nasdaq-100 already in a correction since Monday, oversight of AI spending is the part I'd watch.

The V says the market forgave the vote. Did it forgive the AI risk too, or is that the next leg?

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@MarioNawfal "Nothing to lose"?? Tell that to the people actually living through this war. Pretty easy to demand more strikes when you're nowhere near the consequences.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@BrightLabsMedia Could honestly be both. AI demand might be bigger than anyone expected while some of the companies funding it still end up in trouble. That's what makes this cycle so fascinating.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@Raj_Invests Yeah it's pretty wild. The tricky part is figuring out how much of those early orders turn into actual deliveries. A lot can change in 3-4 years, but with the moat ASML has i think they will deliver

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@steady_profits Exactly. Curious if today's bounce holds once the election excitement fades. Still a lot of that backlog to turn into actual revenue.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@KobeissiLetter That reversal says a lot about how much fear was already priced in. And the market hasn't even opened yet.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@TheBigBerbowski folks are acting like the election suddenly broke the AI trade. those stocks were already getting hammered before anyone voted. easy to blame politics for everything.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@aleabitoreddit AI is way too important for US national security to suddenly become a partisan issue imo. The bigger headache could be local opposition to data centers, regardless of who's in charge.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@yarbatman Could definitely open the door for a deal. But Congress can only put so much pressure on Trump. I'd want to see actual movement on sanctions and Hormuz before getting too optimistic.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@Couch_Investor And the crazy part is both are still supply constrained. Makes you wonder how much higher those forecasts could be if they could actually ship everything customers want.

[MoatBull @MoatBull]

@TheBigBerbowski I'd look at $CBRS and $NBIS pretty differently though. One has to prove its chip architecture can win share, the other has to deliver all that promised capacity. Very different risks imo.