Victor

推文只代表個人角度和觀點
分享我如何從技術結構中找尋交易機會
📌 歡迎喜歡用技術分析結合交易思路的朋友關注。

R&D Team | 🇵🇭 🇹🇭 🇯🇵

[Victor @mobylond]

过度恐慌的情绪出现了，忍住

[Winter Soldier ❄️🙋🏻‍♂️ @WinterSoldierxz]

$BTC will fall bellow $35k

65% of orders on prediction markets are now betting $BTC drops below $50k this year.

The whole timeline is calling $50k the bottom. And that's exactly the problem.

Last cycle everyone called $28k the bottom. People piled in. Price dropped to $19k. They bought more. It fell to $15k. The market only turned when everyone got scared and capitulated.

Price almost never moves the way the crowd wants it to.

Last cycle $BTC dropped 78% before it flew. This cycle might be shallower, but don't rule out the $3x,xxx range.

So this time I don't think it stops at $50k. How far is anyone's guess, but always plan for the worst case.

Be careful with how you allocate capital buying $BTC. Don't trust the crowd, go heavy, then lose control of your emotions. That only makes everything worse.

Technically it looks bad. Heavy red candles, strong sell volume. Lower highs, lower lows. The downtrend hasn't broken.

Whales are pushing supply onto exchanges. 8,200 $BTC on June 4. 6,400 $BTC on June 6. The monthly average jumped from 1,200 to over 2,800 $BTC in just a few weeks. You don't move coins to Binance to hold them.

Institutional money is still flowing out. Four straight weeks of net outflows, totaling -$5.4B. Spot ETF net assets dropped from $106.6B to $75.1B in a single month. BlackRock took back 2,515 $BTC, but $150M against $5.4B is a drop in the bucket. One green day is not a reversal.

Everywhere you look there's supply. No demand.

Sentiment is near the floor but hasn't touched it. Fear & Greed is at 13. History says it takes a reading under 10 to mark a real buy zone. GlassNode shows 47.7% of $BTC is in profit at $61k, meaning more than half the market is sitting in the red. Capitulation isn't done.

Some whales are longing $BTC hard. Carrying $86M in unrealized losses, all-in on leveraged longs at 15-20x. Between June 3 and 7 they deposited another $40M USDC purely to push their liquidation price further out.

This isn't conviction. This is a performance. Deploying that much capital into longs while the trend is down doesn't make you bullish, it makes you bait. The goal is to make retail feel safe enough to buy in so there's exit liquidity when it matters.

Don't be the exit.

So what do I do next?

$65k-66k: if price bounces back here, it's most likely just gathering momentum to push lower. Bull trap, not a buy signal.

$50k: the level everyone's calling the bottom. I'd put in 5% of my allocation here, no more. The fact that everyone agrees on this level is exactly why I doubt it.

$38k: I'd add another 10% here and keep watching.

Below $38k if possible: I add another 5% at the exact moment it hurts, when the frustration kicks in and everyone around me is giving up. That feeling is the signal. It's the capitulation the data is still waiting for.

My goal is to DCA up, not DCA down.

The bottom hasn't called anyone's name yet. When it does, nobody will want to answer.

Winter Soldier out

[Victor @mobylond]

@caolei1 K形分化的的结果，地产消费预计还有几年颓势。
另外怎么把泡泡玛特也归为消费股呢

[Victor @mobylond]

@caolei1 K形分化的的结果，地产消费预计还有几年颓势。
另外怎么把泡泡玛特也归为消费股呢

[Victor @mobylond]

@ShanghaoJin 有请课代表解答

[Victor @mobylond]

@ShanghaoJin Herman老师你小看你的影响力了，自信一点2T

[Victor @mobylond]

@takaramarr @ShanghaoJin @jasonnotes0206 @GuncleTalk @dearbaibabybus 数据源丢给AI按照你喜欢的方式展示就好了

WRESBAL
(https://t.co/NXAcsrOxPt), RRPONTSYD
(https://t.co/vuWEfwn4Yy), WTREGEN
（https://t.co/hgzc6ROWNC）、SOFR
(https://t.co/37wZmOEPkV), IORB
(https://t.co/vYe7O1HNtu).

[Victor @mobylond]

@ShanghaoJin @jasonnotes0206 @GuncleTalk @dearbaibabybus 感谢herman老师的框架，花了20分钟vibe coding了一个每天看

[Victor @mobylond]

核心还是担心中的自主化替代会抢占原本属于他们的市场份额。
现在的逻辑变成了：赶紧稍微松绑，让你们继续用我们的高端产品，以此来打断你们自主研发的节奏和决心。

这个态度的转变看似快，其实是非常务实的利益算计。
因为一味地极限施压和抑制，只会倒逼出对方更强的产业链韧性，甚至加速了完全独立的进程。

换句话说，这说明中在跨越‘中等收入陷阱’、向高端产业链攀爬的过程中，展现出了无法被轻易锁死的实力。
美国现在可能是在接受这个现实——既然无法彻底封死，不如换一种方式，通过生态系统继续绑定你。
这并非是欢迎你加入发达国家俱乐部，而是博弈方式的升级。

[Victor @mobylond]

I can't believe such a high-quality video actually came from the official White House account.

The production value for promoting China was impressive, and with this all-star lineup, you can really tell the cooperation was full of sincerity.

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

The arrival everyone has waited for. 🇺🇸🇨🇳

[Victor @mobylond]

@LZRationalnvest 关键是直接复制，没有转载

[Victor @mobylond]

@igeekbb ceo基因吗，怎么看起来有点像

[Victor @mobylond]

他的观点，与谷歌CEO和我的不谋而合：
程序员不但不是第一批失业的，反而需求增加了，甚至成为主流

PS：Andrew Ng是不是偷偷看了人家podcast
https://t.co/EIYnmIHdLO

[Andrew Ng @AndrewYNg]

There will be no AI jobpocalypse.

The story that AI will lead to massive unemployment is stoking unnecessary fear. AI — like any other technology — does affect jobs, but telling overblown stories of large-scale unemployment is irresponsible and damaging. Let’s put a stop to it.

I’ve expressed skepticism about the jobpocalypse in previous posts. I’m glad to see that the popular press is now pushing back on this narrative. The image below features some recent headlines.

Software engineering is the sector most affected by AI tools, as coding agents race ahead. Yet hiring of software engineers remains strong! So while there are examples of AI taking away jobs, the trends strongly suggest the net job creation is vastly greater than the job destruction — just like earlier waves of technology. Further, despite all the exciting progress in AI, the U.S. unemployment rate remains a healthy 4.3%.

Why is the AI jobpocalypse narrative so popular? For one thing, frontier AI labs have a strong incentive to tell stories that make AI technology sound more powerful. At their most extreme, they promote science-fiction scenarios of AI “taking over” and causing human extinction. If a technology can replace many employees, surely that technology must be very valuable!

Also, a lot of SaaS software companies charge around $100-$1000 per user/year. But if an AI company can replace an employee who makes $100,000 — or make them 50% more productive — then charging even $10,000 starts to look reasonable. By anchoring not to typical SaaS prices but to salaries of employees, AI companies can charge a lot more.

Additionally, businesses have a strong incentive to talk about layoffs as if they were caused by AI. After all, talking about how they’re using AI to be far more productive with fewer staff makes them look smart. This is a better message than admitting they overhired during the pandemic when capital was abundant due to low interest rates and a massive government financial stimulus.

To be clear, I recognize that AI is causing a lot of people’s work to change. This is hard. This is stressful. (And to some, it can be fun.) I empathize with everyone affected. At the same time, this is very different from predicting a collapse of the job market.

Societies are capable of telling themselves stories for years that have little basis in reality and lead to poor society-wide decision making. For example, fears over nuclear plant safety led to under-investment in nuclear power. Fears of the “population bomb” in the 1960s led countries to implement harsh policies to reduce their populations. And worries about dietary fat led governments to promote unhealthy high-sugar diets for decades.

Now that mainstream media is openly skeptical about the jobpocalypse, I hope these stories will start to lose their teeth (much like fears of AI-driven human extinction have).

Contrary to the predictions of an AI jobpocalypse, I predict the opposite: There will be an AI jobapalooza! AI will lead to a lot more good AI engineering jobs, and I’m also optimistic about the future of the overall job market. What AI engineers do will be different from traditional software engineering, and many of these jobs will be in businesses other than traditional large employers of developers. In non-AI roles, too, the skills needed will change because of AI. That makes this a good time to encourage more people to become proficient in AI, and make sure they’re ready for the different but plentiful jobs of the future!

[Original text in The Batch newsletter.]

[Victor @mobylond]

@RYANHINGSHING @ShanghaoJin 谢谢课代表

[Victor @mobylond]

@LZRationalnvest 大厂的焦虑和卷，这些价值的溢出利好普通人

[Victor @mobylond]

@LZRationalnvest 这哪是烧钱，投入的算力都是实打实输出token

[Charlan @Chen_0_]

A股的技术难度远大于美股，

一个是零和游戏，国家队降维打击，

一个是增量市场，401k无脑买入。

爱挑战的人选A股，爱赚钱的人选美股。😃

[Victor @mobylond]

@berryxia @trq212 缺点何止这几个？
Markdown 可以人和 AI 协作去编辑一个文档，随时可以修改，所见即所得，这些 HTML 带不来。

[Victor @mobylond]

@ShanghaoJin Herman老师最近高产呀，感恩

[Victor @mobylond]

注意是周额度不变

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Anthropic: Claude Code is getting higher limits. The company is doubling Claude Code’s 5-hour rate limits, removing peak-hour limit reductions, and raising API rate limits for Claude Opus models, giving heavier users more room before hitting caps.