Jason Note, CFA

ETF & Crypto Licesned Professional / Tech Investor / Investor Relations of Listed Company

[Jason Note, CFA @jasonnotes0206]

@pakpakchicken cost me millions

[Jason Note, CFA @jasonnotes0206]

@pakpakchicken SATS is tanking because the market isn't stupid. Every single catalyst from the SpaceX proxy play to the FCC auction is ALREADY priced in, and smart money is rotating out.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Sign up for SpaceX investor relations updates!

[Jason Note, CFA @jasonnotes0206]

@pakpakchicken You took a look at rocket lab? Blind

[Jason Note, CFA @jasonnotes0206]

@pakpakchicken Probably your last post don’t know if it is so good, why the price keep dropping?

[HN @PassionAndLuck]

To everyone questioning SpaceX / $SPCX’s highly successful IPO and its $2.1T market cap, let me share what I believe is the best arbitrage setup.

Do you know $SATS?

$SATS is expected to receive 261.8M shares of $SPCX, worth roughly $42B based on the 6/12 closing price.

Yet SATS’ current market cap is only about $33B.

Short: $SPCX
Long: $SATS

$SATS will effectively own approximately 2% of SpaceX / SPCX.

According to the SPCX prospectus, in exchange for acquiring spectrum from SATS, SPCX will pay SATS 261.8M shares of SPCX stock, roughly $8.5B in cash, and an additional ~$2.0B in cash to cover interest payments that SATS would otherwise have been responsible for.

In addition, SATS is expected to sell roughly $23B of spectrum to $T.

The transactions with $T and SPCX were approved by the FCC on 5/12. If no petition for reconsideration was filed by 6/11, the approval should likely have become final automatically. As of 6/14, I have not confirmed any petition for reconsideration.

Also, the spectrum transfer structure is SATS → TRUST → SPCX. Since the SATS → TRUST transfer has already been completed, I believe the closing risk is relatively low.

Now let’s calculate $SATS NAV.

My base NAV assumptions:

SPCX ownership: approximately 2%

SATS basic shares outstanding: 298M

Fully diluted shares after convertible bonds: 348M

I use 348M shares in the calculation below.

Cash proceeds from spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX:

From $T: approximately $23B
From $SPCX: approximately $8B in cash
Total: approximately $31B

Assuming the convertible bonds are converted into equity, net cash after debt repayment would be roughly $11B.

Regulatory / escrow / contingent liability haircut: -$2.5B

Net cash after haircut: approximately $8.5B

Remaining operating business value: $10B

Based on roughly $300M of operating income in Q1 2026 × 4 quarters × 8x multiple.

Even after the spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX, SATS will retain remaining spectrum assets. The most notable example is AWS-3 paired spectrum, which SATS previously planned to sell to $VZ for approximately $9.8B.

If we conservatively value the remaining spectrum at $10B, that adds approximately $28.7 per share of NAV based on 348M shares.

Formula:

SATS NAV
= {SPCX market cap × 2% + net cash after haircut + remaining operating business value + remaining spectrum value} / 348M shares

= {SPCX market cap × 2% + $8.5B + $10B + $10B} / 348M shares

SATS NAV by SPCX market cap:

• SPCX $2.0T → SATS approximately $197
• SPCX $2.25T → SATS approximately $211
• SPCX $2.5T → SATS approximately $226
• SPCX $2.75T → SATS approximately $240
• SPCX $3.0T → SATS approximately $254

This is my personal analysis, not financial advice.

[Mizkif @REALMizkif]

Hey fucking piece of shit @RobinhoodApp I’ve been a fucking customer of yours SINCE YOU STARTED and i put an order for 200k shares of $SPCX and you gave me fucking one? A loyal customer? How fucking dare you and your hiracry of needs fuck you and the patriarchy

[Jason Note, CFA @jasonnotes0206]

@VaibhavSisinty @grok 给我总结一下贝索斯的结论和逻辑

[Crypto Doggy 叫我狗总 @CryptoDoggyCN]

SpaceX的前电焊工都上电视了，他手里剩的6500股，按收盘价161算价值105万美元

早期签约就有1万美元股票激励，食堂的也有

这老哥精的很，已经跳槽到贝索斯的蓝色起源，继续干电焊，他家也有股票签约奖

[Jason Note, CFA @jasonnotes0206]

You completely omitted the single most critical fact: EchoStar CANNOT touch those SpaceX shares until late 2027! SATS is drowning in billions of debt TODAY, and your 'genius arbitrage' is locked in a time capsule for the next 17 months. You pimped an illiquid corporate restructuring as a short squeeze play, leaving retail investors to hold the bag on a bankrupt balance sheet while SpaceX gets all the glory. Absolute clown behavior.

[Jason Note, CFA @jasonnotes0206]

@pakpakchicken Are u kidding me? Not impressive. Your previous one double spce

[Altimeter Capital @AltimeterCap]

At Liquidity Summit, Brad Gerstner (@altcap) shared his perspective on today's market environment and the importance of disciplined capital allocation.

While the long-term opportunity remains compelling, investors should remember that markets move in cycles and successful investing requires staying power.

The journey is rarely a straight line.

[Jason Note, CFA @jasonnotes0206]

@ShanghaoJin @didiliu222 @Balder13946731 他们确实也还有个配股没用啊

[Chicken Genius @pakpakchicken]

At tops, it’s hard to sell. I get it. Been there.
1 out of 20 times, I get my top calls wrong.

BUT NOBODY WENT BROKE TAKING PROFIT. NOBODY.

Anybody who clowns you. FUCK THEM.

I will give you entry again. Entry may suck. But it won’t be the worst entry.

[Jason Note, CFA @jasonnotes0206]

@ShanghaoJin @rickawsb @Pathusa 为啥不能评论啦

[Jason Note, CFA @jasonnotes0206]

@ShanghaoJin 光現在激進嗎

[Jason Note, CFA @jasonnotes0206]

@ShanghaoJin @Joho198510 四年周期吧 其他都假的

[Jason Note, CFA @jasonnotes0206]

@yuyy614893671 胡说八道 谁没有保险

[Altimeter Capital @AltimeterCap]

On @CNBC Halftime with Scott Wapner (@TheJudgeCNBC), Brad Gerstner (@altcap) shared how he thinks about positioning during periods of market volatility.

“Let your winners run.”
But also:
“I will say with these parabolic moves, we absolutely are making sure that we're taking down some of our exposure in names that exceed our price targets... rotating it into other names..”

Brad discussed:
• Rebalancing during periods of market strength
• Maintaining flexibility during volatility
• Keeping liquidity available during pullbacks

[This Week in Startups @twistartups]

J-Cal says the exact dollar amount at which money stops mattering: $10 million.

Park it, earn 5%, and you're clearing half a million a year without lifting a finger. You can go do whatever you want or nothing at all.

That's real F-U money. Everything past that is just keeping score.