Moddy Todd

I'm running around looking for interesting ideas, modeling them and sharing the results. And showcasing this platform we've built, Moddy.

[Moddy Todd @moddy_todd]

Built an AI model called Ol Softeee.
Saw @jakecrumpler breaking down how Lodolo's stuff was way better than his results showed. Got me thinking: how many pitchers are like that? Nasty whiff rates, elite chase rates, but the K prop market is still sleeping on them.
So I built a model to find that gap. 24 features: whiff rate, chase rate, spin, edge zone command, contact suppression, fastball velocity trends, all crossed against the market's posted K lines.
Backtest: 93.7 score, 31-47% ROI range across 2.4M data points. Those numbers are absurd and won't hold in real life. Backtests never do. But the signal was strong enough to publish it live on https://t.co/vovFep4B3i today.
8 games on the board. Let's see.

[Moddy Todd @moddy_todd]

Great example of a signal I think you can model. Adding it to the list. I think I can build something that flags recent positive moves in a pitcher's stuff and test whether it sharpens strikeout predictions and edge before the line adjusts.

[Lance Brozdowski @LanceBroz]

Here's the splitter adjustment that #Orioles Brandon Young made on May 24th.

5 mph slower, 3" more drop, 4" less arm-side movement

Old: 87.7 mph, 5.4" iVB, 11.8" HB
New: 82.8 mph, 2.1" iVB, 7.8" HB

[Moddy Todd @moddy_todd]

Not much to go on, model produced exactly 1 pick yesterday. This happens when the inputs kinda narrow down the pool of pitchers available for predicting on game day. Or the model just isn't finding edge. Will keep watching, may take a while to see if this is going to go anywhere.

[Moddy Todd @moddy_todd]

Built an AI model called Ol Softeee.
Saw @jakecrumpler breaking down how Lodolo's stuff was way better than his results showed. Got me thinking: how many pitchers are like that? Nasty whiff rates, elite chase rates, but the K prop market is still sleeping on them.
So I built a model to find that gap. 24 features: whiff rate, chase rate, spin, edge zone command, contact suppression, fastball velocity trends, all crossed against the market's posted K lines.
Backtest: 93.7 score, 31-47% ROI range across 2.4M data points. Those numbers are absurd and won't hold in real life. Backtests never do. But the signal was strong enough to publish it live on https://t.co/vovFep4B3i today.
8 games on the board. Let's see.

[Moddy Todd @moddy_todd]

@LouisAnalysis What's cool is you can see he's getting the fewest strikes of his career (41% zone vs league's 48.7%) and at the same time dropped his MLB chase rate to 27.6%, down from 35.4% in '24. Pitchers are ducking him but he's also refusing to expand the zone. Boom there's your walks.

[Moddy Todd @moddy_todd]

Day 3: Harder Barrel is live.
34 picks. 24-10. 70.6% win rate, +17.5% ROI.
The thesis: contact quality predicts hits better than batting average. 34 picks later, it's holding.
What's inside: barrel rate, hard-hit%, exit velo, line drive rate, zone contact rate, crossed against opposing SP contact allowed and platoon splits. No batting average. No BABIP.
You can build a model like this yourself at https://t.co/vovFep4B3i

[Moddy Todd @moddy_todd]

Andy Pages went 4-for-51 in the postseason. Right now he's slashing .333 with a 58.3% hard-hit rate (95th percentile).
Is this real? I'm building a model to find out. First backtest just came back. More soon.

[Moddy Todd @moddy_todd]

Update: named it Harder Barrel.

16-4 record so far. +35.7% ROI across 20 settled picks.

Barrel rate and hard-hit% predict batter hits better than batting average. Early results say the thesis holds. More tuning ahead.

[Moddy Todd @moddy_todd]

@underdogchance Ha! The gap between "I like the Braves" and "There's a calculated edge here" is where bettors lose without realizing it.

[Moddy Todd @moddy_todd]

@discussbaseball The not missing a game since 2021 part is the most underrated thing here. Availability is its own skill.

[Moddy Todd @moddy_todd]

Whoo hoo!!!

[Moddy AI @Moddy_AI]

We'll let Carter @GMGoBetting do the talking. 👀

[Moddy AI @Moddy_AI]

We'll let Carter @GMGoBetting do the talking. 👀

[Moddy Todd @moddy_todd]

Oh yeah, best NBA model I've made so far.

[Moddy AI @Moddy_AI]

This model is on a run!

17 out of the last 20 picks hit ✔️🏀🔥