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📈 $SPY HIGHER TIME FRAME ANALYSIS!
• With another month passing by in 2025 market remains extremely strong and is currently in a wide range and consolidating.
• Firstly, we do not have the ISLAND BOTTOM anymore and we bounced right off the fill from the ISLAND BOTTOM. COINCIDENCE? Think how easy it was. And why I was not bearish yesterday or looking for downside plays. Most times in my experience as a trader and investor, the easiest ways to interpret the markets are the best way to play it.
• When an ISLAND BOTTOM is filled strong bounces occur which can help buyers to head back to making higher highs and usually form higher lows in the market.
• Secondly, look at the bigger time frame and see how we hit a longer term trendline i.e October lows of 2023 and then September lows of 2024 and now and bounced off it perfectly.
• If this trendline was lost on Friday I would have revised my thesis of being bullish in the 1H of this year to targeting 565 and 543 under. But that is not what happened on Friday.
• Am I saying Friday is where we bottomed? Absolutely not. As long as on the chart we have the bear gap open for the bears we will see some volatility but this is no way bearish when you zoom out. In fact this is the reason why I have been buying stocks on this fear. Different Perspective from what the media is selling you right?
• Now coming to the levels and seasonality, March starts off to look like February but you will see that March to May are good months to trade until June happens again. So start small but I will get aggressive again into end of the Quarter.
• Meaning I expect the bear gap to be filled in March and price marching back to all time highs.
• Coming to next week I expect a retest of the Friday lows or go a tad bit lower to reverse and create a 2B reversal to hit the upper trendline I have below later part of the month. [ Will explain again on the 65 min chart]
• FEAR HAS NO PLACE in this market longer timeframe currently. Dips are opportunities. I am not asking you to trade calls when the market is going lower or the momentum is lower, not denying Puts shouldn't be bought on a day to day trend. But exposure and opening wallets to longer timeframes with shares is something that will make you successful at levels like these.
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