There is nothing like the market ripping to distract you from the big picture.
Euphoria is kicking in
We can't lose now, right?
The masses believe that a Rate Cut is bullish
The perfect storm is brewing.
Sept - late October will be the test
2026 will be the reality.
$SPY $SPX
The Dow Jones
The S&P 500, and
The $QQQ
Are all testing their 50 WMA now.
When the market tanked at the start of April, very little believed we would be back at this point
But history suggested that a retest of the 50 WMA would be needed and it is important to determine the next direction.
A rejection here and the market will make a lower low, as @ptj_official has suggested.
This is also why Trump keeps telling the market to buy stocks at this point.
This is an important level.
But Trade Talks have been slow, it will likely take weeks but this is not to the advantage of the US market.
Trump has moved from 145% Tariff to 80%, he can't simply drop to 50% or 10% or that is admitting he got it completely wrong, so he must slowly reduce his position as talks are ongoing.
The slower he takes to get at or below 10%, the harder it will be for the market to break higher.
Right now, a +50% tariff is too high on China, it will cause too much damage to the US economy and the 10 YR will move higher and so will inflation.
The sooner Trump gets to 10% the better for the market.
If talks break down....the market breaks down.
Get to 10%.
$SPY $SPX