Monetary Commentary

Very good macro charts and historical insights | Over a decade deep in economics and financial markets | Not advice

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

The more indicators someone crams onto a chart, the less convinced I am they understand price.

Most technical indicators are just delayed transformations of the same underlying data. They often create the illusion of depth while telling you what the stock already did.

Give me the trend, price structure, volume, a few key moving averages and the broader market for context.

A chart should clarify the trade—not bury it.

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

@alphatrends Maybe…. Probably would have waited to post this until Big Tech reports earnings. Bar is dumb high

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

@citrini It’s not that complicated. Everyone’s just chasing what’s hot right now, prompting fast rotations. Notice how nobody is talking about crypto (for now). It’s all thematics

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

Revisiting my Blend Labs $BLND bull thesis --the stock has fallen; the business, however, has quietly moved in the opposite direction. https://t.co/kIyAXMtBvp

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

Revisiting my Blend Labs $BLND bull thesis --the stock has fallen; the business, however, has quietly moved in the opposite direction. https://t.co/kIyAXMtBvp

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

Recession files (part 18): Even the most iconic boom decade had internal air pockets: the Roaring Twenties did not roar in a straight line. https://t.co/j7Z4k6VT7R

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

Recession files (part 18): Even the most iconic boom decade had internal air pockets: the Roaring Twenties did not roar in a straight line. https://t.co/j7Z4k6VT7R

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

10 reasons to be bearish on stocks:

1. Valuations already assume a near-perfect outcome.

2. Earnings expectations leave almost no room for disappointment.

3. The entire index increasingly depends on a handful of companies.

4. AI spending is being valued as permanently exponential.

5. Investors are treating projected productivity as realized profit.

6. Margin debt is exploding.

7. Bond yields offer real competition to equities again.

8. Fiscal deficits are supporting growth—but also keeping rates higher.

9. Passive flows have turned concentration into a self-reinforcing trade.

10. Everyone knows stocks are expensive, and almost nobody believes that matters anymore.

That last one may be the biggest warning of all..

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

@RBAdvisors Yup, 3% the new 2%

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

Recession files (part 17): the Great Deflation bust https://t.co/L9RhqGwf9J

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

Posting your percentage P&L without the nominal amount is just performance cosplay, yet to many people do it in an effort to gain more subscribers.
A 200% return on $500 is not more impressive than a 20% return on $500,000.
Percentages show efficiency.
Nominal gains show whether you actually had the conviction, capital, sizing, and risk tolerance to make the trade matter.
Without both, the screenshot is missing the part that separates a good bet from a meaningful one.

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

Recession files (part 17): the Great Deflation bust https://t.co/L9RhqGwf9J

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

@LHMacro Haha, exactly

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

Everyone’s becoming a technical analyst now 🤣🤡

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

@AndreasSteno @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Says the one losing money is one of the greatest bull markets in history 🙂

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

@colbyLsmith The only way to get to such a fantasy is a depression.

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

@AlessioTMAD Can’t 100% rule out Waller today

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

Recession files (part 16): the Armistice snapback https://t.co/7F7gnII5al

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

@biancoresearch https://t.co/USLkMauyZ9

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

Love him or hate him, @elonmusk forced a once-government-dominated industry to behave more like a market.
That’s the real story behind my latest chart: not space as fantasy, but space as a cost curve finally bending hard enough to change the economics of orbit. https://t.co/2A5n5rtOFW

[Monetary Commentary @monetarycomm]

@RitholtzWealth @awealthofcs The chart may be showing peak supplier bargaining power, not a permanent migration of AI economics.