$AMAT $KLAC $LRCX $ASML If you've been following me, you know I've been sharing extensively on the WFE market. The stocks are ripping and many others are catching on. The drum beats are getting louder and there is still much more to come. Two write-ups I've previously posted below.
Global Front-end WFE Demand through 2031
https://t.co/bSSgYWX8F1
China Semiconductor Supply Chain: WFE, Back-End, Materials, and Policy Risk.
https://t.co/yTCumMNoLQ
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My favorite bitcoin entrepreneur is for sure @DavidFBailey he’s someone worth betting on
-99.33% losses for investors in 1 year
Bitcoin at $1,000,000 a coin doesn’t make these shareholders whole.
What a shame. $NAKA
H1 2027 all the 1.6T pluggable players like $JBL.
Maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other pluggable players are added too. We'll find out soon since $SIVE said there were undisclosed pluggable players they're working with.
H2 2027 for all the main CPO scale up applications from $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystem players like Ayar.
Markets are forward looking ~8M in advance usually.
$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI.
Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there.
Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air.
To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary.
Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser.
(Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth)
Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all.
So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater).
But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now).
Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too.
Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE.
Just a matter of time before volume ramps.
> markets went from doubting $SIVE customers ($150m MC)
Turns out it’s likely companies eg. $JBL, Ayar, $AAPL, Defense Primes, $MRVL celestial.
> to doubting their execution ($600m mc)
Turns out you skip the capex if you go with Win Semi
> to doubting what share they get vs competitors like $LITE ($1.2B mc)
Turns out it’s likely sole source for companies like $JBL and primary suppliers for Ayar.
> to doubting their revenue opportunities ($2B MC)
Turns out they got 77% pipeline growth in just a few months
> to doubting their partners like Win Semi’s ability to scale (we are here)
Anyone who thinks Win Semi… one of the worlds most important foundries for $AVGO, $LITE, SpaceX supply chains…
can’t scale capability by 2028 is a stupid bear.
We’re at the point where US retail investors acquired the float off Swedish investors.
But I’m expecting US institutions to find a way to shake out US retail like they did with $NBIS or $RKLB before the next supercycle.