tmtmtm

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@magamuss @OpenSourceZone Retard alert

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@tsybka @PolymarketTrade Liquidity farming 😭

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@GaetenD Leadership won't budge enough to avert. It's closing time

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@GaetenD Possibly this? https://t.co/d56rz13uHV

[Fhantom @FhantomBets]

*Speculating* how the Nobel Peace Prize winner was leaked:

Last night I hosted a *difficult* interview with the alleged “insider” in the Nobel Peace Prize market on Polymarket. Despite an hour of questions, we were still stuck wondering how a trader or team could know Maria Machado would win 12 hours early.

It turns out the answer may have been hiding in plain sight — on the Nobel website itself.

From the interview a few themes stood out. There was potential for some sort of web scraping, as the trader said he used a similar tactic to pull the Lex Fridman transcript for a mention market, that this information was accessible by anyone, and that “you can brute force your way into a lot of things”. That suggests a there was a way to find the URL for Machado before it was published.

The Nobel site runs on WordPress. Like many WordPress setups, it has an XML sitemap that lists every indexable page, even ones not yet public. If someone were monitoring this sitemap, they could easily notice a new page appear, something like "https://t.co/rzp5TKXDZW"

Most likely, someone wrote a bot or script that watched the uploads folder or sitemap for new files. When this image appeared, they connected the dots.

On the Nobel website, the official portrait of Machado at https://t.co/iVC68rsOKQ carries a “last-modified” timestamp in the file’s metadata of 07:18 GMT on October 10, over 1.5 hours before the announcement.

This picture was loaded into the official announcement page of Nobel “https://t.co/jo0ixlxkeT”, a link you could guess by switching in 2025 for 2024

As well, there are other webpages on the XML sitemap which show Machado as the winner before the official reveal, all around the 07:20 GMT mark.

The timestamp is proof that by early morning the Nobel site was already loaded with material revealing the winner. It also raises a bigger question: what was visible before that?

The data I was able to find only shows the “last modified” date of the webpage, meaning that this image was put up at or before this time. Looking back, we only know the most recent timestamp of this image, it’s possible that 12 hours earlier, the available information on these webpages only hinted that Machado was one of possibly multiple winners.

Regardless, it’s cool to see that a few hours before the official announcement, there was definitely strong evidence that Machado was the winner. There are still a few questions that remain unanswered. Unfortunately the rest is.. speculation.

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@PolymarketMoney 1. Find a subreddit for an active TV series
2. Find the most talked-about theories
3. Make markets around those theories

I want to bet on what happens in TV shows!

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@poesdec @Polymarket Do u know what concession means

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@SatoshiAncap @grok So libs are rigging prediction markets?

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@SatoshiAncap @grok how delusional is this guy?

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@DannyT1502 @AlphaxonP It literally says “speak” not “meet”

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@notsoeasymoney If you agree with Beanie then the account isn’t hers and you’d lose on Yes shares. Am I missing something?

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@deepvaluebettor U think the news is good at getting the truth out?

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@thegreektrader This has happened to every small account with good content. The ones that don't get discouraged are the ones that eventually grow bigger than the copiers. If they copy you, then you posted something valuable. Take the compliment

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@AgustinLebron3 @baynkr Accuracy leads to volume because no one can knows who's an insider. The Nobel price spike led to market participation because that itself is a signal. "Know outcomes before they happen" is not the marketing poison that you think it is. Stocks are not comparable at all.

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@Robiibux @euanker @Polymarket @MariaCorinaYA Insider trading is the whole point of prediction markets

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@fireplacegg Personal AI hedge funds create personal ETF’s. Next killer product right there

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@arc5ive_ the incentive structure is importantly different. influencers and news outlets make money by selling sheer attention to advertisers. The new meta will be accuracy over attention outright

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@GaetenD You think billboard top 10 is a lock?

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@GaetenD Copytrading is the smart man’s game.

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@FridayNtrades @Polymarket Personal PM ETF’s based on an individuals beliefs would be class. Distill someone’s truthfulness to a coin. The social aspect would be huge

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@j0hnwang @Kalshi @SouthPark Classic.