Cynical Optimist

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

With $FUBO reaching an $8Bn market cap today, I feel obligated to warn retail investors what they’re getting into

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@MadThunderdome Local TV stations. DM if interested, happy to share specifics

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@PrepRemarks Deng Xiaoping + Transformation of China
Caesar + Augustus (Goldsworthy)
The Alchemy of Air
Children of the Night
The Vortex
Caro LBJ series
Eisenhower in War and Peace
Epidemics and Society
Roosevelt series (Morris)
Peter + Catherine (Massie)
Cuba (Ferrer)

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@MadThunderdome Worth checking out the Bernstein work on new competition from smaller OTAs and their recent Google data, for informed bear perspective on sector

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@BazCap Mack Weldon

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@paulg Antibiotic resistance

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@schaudenfraud Where are you seeing that second buyback is almost complete? Since Aug ‘21 they only repurchased ~$100m of the $1B, at $222

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@dnathe4th @ProtagorasTO If concern is just demand elasticity, impact shouldn’t be that dramatic?

Avg Uber ride is ~6 miles, even at extra $2/gal + 35MPG, that’s $0.35 more per ride (say ~$0.45 including pickup)

Am I missing something in this math?

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@SuperMugatu - Power Broker + LBJ (Caro)
- Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China
- The Story of Human Language
- The WEIRDest People in the World

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@WallStCynic Yes, from analyst day in late 2020.

Possible trend has evolved, or that back end was influenced by Covid. But I believe more recent cc cohort data shows similar pattern

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@WallStCynic No strong opinion on $PTON stock. Just recall this was a dynamic Barry spoke a lot about when at $SPOT, referencing his $NFLX experience as well

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@WallStCynic But doesn’t churn here typically decline as cohorts age? $PTON has shown data supporting this (below).

For $NFLX + $SPOT, overall churn has steadily dropped over time - high growth there led to overstated churn in the early days, not under

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@ElliotTurn I wrote a piece about $ROKU and Malone’s comments a year ago. Think it holds up well, though much of this is still TBD:

https://t.co/EiaIBLYU9j

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@NTYCAPITAL Bc pure play mobility? Think $LYFT is at structural disadvantage re driver supply + scale. Path to profit may be tougher.

Also losing share recently, but may be Omi related.

And $UBER mgmt more credible IMO

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@NTYCAPITAL Understand the concerns on Eats.

I’ve been more cautious on delivery, but think most of US moving to duopoly now, and public market will impose more discipline.

For 2/3 of non-US GMV, $UBER is market leader

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@NTYCAPITAL Yeah, just keep in mind the $5Bn is a sub-3% GMV margin, still lot of room for future margin upside.

Why shouldn’t mobility be 30x FCF biz? Outside of pandemic, it’s super stable utility.. w decent secular growth, LT call option on AV

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@NTYCAPITAL Key is finally showing positive FCF/EPS, which should change long-standing perception that it’s a bad biz.

Important inflection pt that will open shareholder base to new investors, index inclusion, etc.

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@NTYCAPITAL $65B EV today, so 13x ‘24 EBITDA guide.. w prob 80%+ FCF conversion.

Vast majority of profits from mobility, close to global monopoly. Can grow EBITDA 25-30%+ for years post ‘24

Don’t need to assume much for Eats.

Seems pretty cheap to me 🤷‍♂️

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

Excellent thread on cloud infrastructure

[Nayut @NS52537]

1/ Understanding AWS - A perspective from a manager who has $AMZN as one of the largest positions in the portfolio for over 7 years.

In the thread, I will also discuss $MSFT's Azure, $GOOG's GCP. Let's dive in.

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@marjukahm @ProtagorasTO @SamGellman What the market thinks about the value of autonomous tech dreams:

[Cynical Optimist @morecynical]

@marjukahm @ProtagorasTO @SamGellman Lack of engineering prowess + vision isn’t the problem w $UBER stock here.

Market in Feb ‘22 wants real FCF, faster.

Stock would be in much worse shape without Dara fixing cost structure