Morgan Arford

Investment & Data Nerd. Behavioral finance meets personal growth with a goal of better thinking and decision making. Opinions are my own, not investment advice.

[Morgan Arford @MorganArford]

Yields on the riskiest junk bonds (Caa rated) are spiking sharply. That means companies at the bottom of the credit ladder face much higher borrowing costs, a sign stress is building in speculative credit markets.

[Morgan Arford @MorganArford]

Despite all the noise about economic uncertainty, the employment picture is surprisingly steady, no signs of a significant issue there.

[Morgan Arford @MorganArford]

When you compare S&P 500 earnings yield to 10-year Treasury yields, Treasuries look the cheapest this century. But cheap assets tend to get cheaper at first, so caution before chasing “value” there.

[Morgan Arford @MorganArford]

More tracked items are now rising in price faster than 3% YoY, the threshold that usually rings alarm bells for inflation.

[Morgan Arford @MorganArford]

If you don’t get started, you’ll never arrive.

[Morgan Arford @MorganArford]

SpaceX’s IPO journey? About the same as the top 10 biggest past IPOs, maybe a bit more volatile.

[Morgan Arford @MorganArford]

Yields on the riskiest bonds are marching higher again, nowhere near 2000 or 2008 crisis extremes, but closing in on levels seen during the 2022 sell-off. Credit stress signals are flashing, but not yet screaming.

[Morgan Arford @MorganArford]

Doing stuff that "sucks" builds personal character; it can build community when done with others.

[Morgan Arford @MorganArford]

Markets historically deliver better returns during periods of split government control between Democrats and Republicans. Divided Washington might actually reduce policy risk and boost market confidence.

[Morgan Arford @MorganArford]

The U.S. economy’s growth, both in level and momentum, is in a league of its own globally. This resilience could shape markets and policy debates for some time.

[Morgan Arford @MorganArford]

The S&P 500 is just 1% below its record high, but the median S&P stock trades 16% below its 52-week high. The typical stock is much weaker than the headline index suggests, market strength is masking significant internal weakness.

[Morgan Arford @MorganArford]

Your company becomes awesome over time if you are generous.

[Morgan Arford @MorganArford]

The real yield (light blue), that’s nominal yield minus expected inflation, is at its highest since the early 2000s. Not a call to rush in, but definitely a fresh angle on bond appeal worth watching.

[Morgan Arford @MorganArford]

Blaming social media (or soon AI) for distractions is easy. But maybe parents should just look in the mirror. The tools are everywhere, it’s up to adults to regulate access.

[Morgan Arford @MorganArford]

@Barchart Total return since August of 2020.

[Morgan Arford @MorganArford]

My inner ’80s kid is squealing, seems like most pop culture companies are hitting the elder millennial nostalgia button hard lately.

[Morgan Arford @MorganArford]

The elderly are sitting on record wealth, while younger generations struggle financially. No wonder fertility rates are down.