Olivia
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Mort
@mortdgn
Joined June 2026
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57 Followers
41 Posts
@dornwen The classmate exercise is probably more useful than half the investing advice that came after it
@cryp_cryp Knowing the math and actually taking the bet are two very different things
Irving Fisher called the market a permanent plateau two weeks before 1929’s peak. Then he lost everything
pause at 0:11, this is where confidence becomes collateral
“The stock market, he said, was on a permanently high plateau.”
“He lost everything in the stock market crash.”
Yale bought Fisher’s house and rented it back to him. He kept borrowing from wealthy relatives, then lost that money too.
Being wrong destroys a forecast. Leverage lets the forecast destroy everything around it.
More than 2,000 US bank failures were examined. Runs and liquidity problems were blamed in fewer than 20.
Pause at 0:25. The balance sheet is where the panic story starts to fall apart.
Before failure, earnings deteriorated, expensive funding rose and asset losses were already visible.
Examiners classified only 36% of assets as good. About 47% were doubtful and 18% worthless.
The crowd outside the bank was the final scene, not always the cause.
A bank run can decide the date of failure without being the reason the bank was already dying.
More than 2,000 US bank failures were examined. Runs and liquidity problems were blamed in fewer than 20.
Pause at 0:25. The balance sheet is where the panic story starts to fall apart.
Before failure, earnings deteriorated, expensive funding rose and asset losses were already visible.
Examiners classified only 36% of assets as good. About 47% were doubtful and 18% worthless.
The crowd outside the bank was the final scene, not always the cause.
A bank run can decide the date of failure without being the reason the bank was already dying.
More than 2,000 US bank failures were examined. Runs and liquidity problems were blamed in fewer than 20.
Pause at 0:25. The balance sheet is where the panic story starts to fall apart.
Before failure, earnings deteriorated, expensive funding rose and asset losses were already visible.
Examiners classified only 36% of assets as good. About 47% were doubtful and 18% worthless.
The crowd outside the bank was the final scene, not always the cause.
A bank run can decide the date of failure without being the reason the bank was already dying.
A company worth over $10 billion fell 90% in one day. Jean Hynes was holding it
pause at 0:52, watch her face just before the number lands
“Tysabri has been pulled from the market.”
“The next day the stock is down 90%.”
“I didn't sell my position. I just kept it and I did work.”
The drug later returned, and the position recovered part of the collapse.
When the price has already erased almost everything, action can feel safer than thought. Sometimes the real work starts after the market stops helping you think.
@dornwen The craziest part is paying 3% a year and still being told you’re investing efficiently
A company worth over $10 billion fell 90% in one day. Jean Hynes was holding it
pause at 0:52, watch her face just before the number lands
“Tysabri has been pulled from the market.”
“The next day the stock is down 90%.”
“I didn't sell my position. I just kept it and I did work.”
The drug later returned, and the position recovered part of the collapse.
When the price has already erased almost everything, action can feel safer than thought. Sometimes the real work starts after the market stops helping you think.
@shynkariukIllia A $30B guy admitting luck matters is probably the most honest part
A company worth over $10 billion fell 90% in one day. Jean Hynes was holding it
pause at 0:52, watch her face just before the number lands
“Tysabri has been pulled from the market.”
“The next day the stock is down 90%.”
“I didn't sell my position. I just kept it and I did work.”
The drug later returned, and the position recovered part of the collapse.
When the price has already erased almost everything, action can feel safer than thought. Sometimes the real work starts after the market stops helping you think.
Blackstone watched its largest investment collapse 71%, then turned it into a record $14 billion profit
The timing could hardly have been worse. The Hilton deal closed in the fall of 2007.
pause at 0:39, watch Jon Gray’s expression as he reaches the number nobody wanted to report
“We write down the investment by 71%.”
Blackstone had put in $5.6 billion, then added another $800 million during the recovery.
“We ended up making $14 billion, the most profitable real estate private equity deal of all time.”
Bad timing can wound a great asset. It does not automatically make the asset bad.
Blackstone watched its largest investment collapse 71%, then turned it into a record $14 billion profit
The timing could hardly have been worse. The Hilton deal closed in the fall of 2007.
pause at 0:39, watch Jon Gray’s expression as he reaches the number nobody wanted to report
“We write down the investment by 71%.”
Blackstone had put in $5.6 billion, then added another $800 million during the recovery.
“We ended up making $14 billion, the most profitable real estate private equity deal of all time.”
Bad timing can wound a great asset. It does not automatically make the asset bad.
Blackstone watched its largest investment collapse 71%, then turned it into a record $14 billion profit
The timing could hardly have been worse. The Hilton deal closed in the fall of 2007.
pause at 0:39, watch Jon Gray’s expression as he reaches the number nobody wanted to report
“We write down the investment by 71%.”
Blackstone had put in $5.6 billion, then added another $800 million during the recovery.
“We ended up making $14 billion, the most profitable real estate private equity deal of all time.”
Bad timing can wound a great asset. It does not automatically make the asset bad.
Stanley Druckenmiller rode Nvidia from 150 to 800, sold, then watched it hit 1,400 five weeks later
pause at 1:13, watch how he describes the moment discipline lost to fear
“I couldn’t stand success.”
“I’d gone from 150 to 800. I was long term in it. I couldn’t deal with it, and I sold it.”
“And then it was 1,400 like five weeks later and I was sick.”
Losses hurt. But selling a winner because winning became uncomfortable can stay with you longer.
@cryp_cryp A long enough time horizon can completely change what “unaffordable” means
Stanley Druckenmiller rode Nvidia from 150 to 800, sold, then watched it hit 1,400 five weeks later
pause at 1:13, watch how he describes the moment discipline lost to fear
“I couldn’t stand success.”
“I’d gone from 150 to 800. I was long term in it. I couldn’t deal with it, and I sold it.”
“And then it was 1,400 like five weeks later and I was sick.”
Losses hurt. But selling a winner because winning became uncomfortable can stay with you longer.
Ray Dalio borrowed $4,000 from his father, then explained how investors can cut risk by 80%.
Pause at 0:13. This is where a billionaire starts measuring financial freedom in weeks.
“I had to borrow $4,000 from my dad to help take care of my family bills.”
“How many weeks could I live if I lost my income?”
He counted weeks, then months, then a year. Only after securing that buffer did he take other risks.
“Your return will equal the average of those returns, but your risk can be cut by 80%.”
A cash reserve is not about yield. It buys time before fear starts making decisions.
Ray Dalio borrowed $4,000 from his father, then explained how investors can cut risk by 80%.
Pause at 0:13. This is where a billionaire starts measuring financial freedom in weeks.
“I had to borrow $4,000 from my dad to help take care of my family bills.”
“How many weeks could I live if I lost my income?”
He counted weeks, then months, then a year. Only after securing that buffer did he take other risks.
“Your return will equal the average of those returns, but your risk can be cut by 80%.”
A cash reserve is not about yield. It buys time before fear starts making decisions.
Jim Simons gave MIT five rules for solving impossible problems, then made luck the final one
pause at 0:16, watch the first rule appear as he explains why crowded problems gave him almost no chance
“Do something new. Don’t run with the pack.”
“Surround yourself with the smartest people you can find.”
“Be guided by beauty.”
“Don’t give up easily.”
“Hope for good luck.”
Renaissance grew from the same structure: original problems, exceptional people, persistence, and enough humility to leave room for luck.
Most people copy visible results. The real edge starts with choosing a game where copying cannot win.
@cryp_cryp The market usually recovers faster than your nerves do
Jim Simons gave MIT five rules for solving impossible problems, then made luck the final one
pause at 0:16, watch the first rule appear as he explains why crowded problems gave him almost no chance
“Do something new. Don’t run with the pack.”
“Surround yourself with the smartest people you can find.”
“Be guided by beauty.”
“Don’t give up easily.”
“Hope for good luck.”
Renaissance grew from the same structure: original problems, exceptional people, persistence, and enough humility to leave room for luck.
Most people copy visible results. The real edge starts with choosing a game where copying cannot win.
Jim Simons gave MIT five rules for solving impossible problems, then made luck the final one
pause at 0:16, watch the first rule appear as he explains why crowded problems gave him almost no chance
“Do something new. Don’t run with the pack.”
“Surround yourself with the smartest people you can find.”
“Be guided by beauty.”
“Don’t give up easily.”
“Hope for good luck.”
Renaissance grew from the same structure: original problems, exceptional people, persistence, and enough humility to leave room for luck.
Most people copy visible results. The real edge starts with choosing a game where copying cannot win.
Kevin Warsh held rates steady after a 9–3 vote, then erased Wall Street’s favorite inflation loophole
five years above target had taught markets to doubt the official number
pause at 0:27, watch him lift his eyes after the number lands
“There is no soft inflation target”
“There’s only a target, and it’s 2 percent”
a target stops being policy when markets learn they can ignore it
Kevin Warsh held rates steady after a 9–3 vote, then erased Wall Street’s favorite inflation loophole
five years above target had taught markets to doubt the official number
pause at 0:27, watch him lift his eyes after the number lands
“There is no soft inflation target”
“There’s only a target, and it’s 2 percent”
a target stops being policy when markets learn they can ignore it
Kevin Warsh held rates steady after a 9–3 vote, then erased Wall Street’s favorite inflation loophole
five years above target had taught markets to doubt the official number
pause at 0:27, watch him lift his eyes after the number lands
“There is no soft inflation target”
“There’s only a target, and it’s 2 percent”
a target stops being policy when markets learn they can ignore it
Mohamed El-Erian says the Fed has a printing press in the basement
pause at 0:27, watch his face before he names the one power nobody else has
“Don’t fight the Fed”
“The Fed is the one institution that has a printing press in the basement”
“And there’s no limits to how much it can use”
In practice, it moved asset prices far more than the real economy
The result was “the largest disconnect ever between Main Street and Wall Street”
the cost of easy money is hardest to see when your portfolio is rising
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